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Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

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Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#51

Post by pjc50 »

iand wrote: post #45
pjc50 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This reminds me more and more of Greece, with Farage in the Varoufakis role. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_bailout_referendum,_2015 The public voted "no", again, but obviously that made no difference to the deals on offer and no deal remained disastrous, so Syriza were ultimately forced to accept a worse deal: "On Monday, 13 July, the Syriza-led government of Greece accepted a bailout package that contains larg…

Varoufakis resigned the day after the referendum, before the Greek government accepted the bailout.

Farage was never officially part of any the UK power structure, except the media.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#52

Post by Symmetry »

forinti wrote: post #9

I can't decide if Brexit is good or bad for the UK. On the one hand, there's the common market and freedom of movement. On the other there's Germany's dominance and lots of fragile banks. What would be worse, losing access to the free market or being around if the banks fail? Or would being outside the market make a difference if Deutsche Bank failed?

Germany's dominance mostly just hurts countries that have to depend on the Euro, so not the UK. They experienced a little bit of the Eurozone's double dip recession brought on by premature tightening in 2011 but that was mostly a matter of trade exposure which isn't something that can change just by leaving the EU. And since the whole reason for the UK's trouble then was getting less trade from Europe then abandoning that trade altogether would be strictly worse.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#53

Post by rusk »

I kind of feel the whimper came before Christmas, in the talks discussing Northern Ireland and the status of the border there between the UK and Europe. I can't remember the details exactly but the Good Friday Agreement [0] provided a constitutional footing whereby the UK effectively gave an undertaking to abide by the rules of the EU trade area, while not being a member of the EU trade area.

This to prevent the erection of a "hard border" (i.e. one you couldn't freely traverse without a Visa) which would be required as a customs barrier, rather than for security.

This agreement completely undermines a lot of the wackier ideas around free trade that have been floating around and defangs some of the nastier aspects of brexit.

The UK is still free to set her own internal monetary and social policy but she's effectively bound to EU trade rules, and the EU of course must consult her in setting these.

It's an epic compromise on both sides that basically allows for a continuation of business as usual without undermining the "brexit means brexit" doctrine.

A lovely example of how peace once established can be the gift that keeps giving.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#54

Post by spiralx »

nkkollaw wrote: post #18
forinti wrote: post #9

I can't decide if Brexit is good or bad for the UK. On the one hand, there's the common market and freedom of movement. On the other there's Germany's dominance and lots of fragile banks. What would be worse, losing access to the free market or being around if the banks fail? Or would being outside the market make a difference if Deutsche Bank failed?

Bad. If anything because they'll have to rewrite thousands of laws and procedures that came from the EU times, and deal with the caos that that will cause. That only will cost so much money (and pain) that it would justify staying in the EU. Then, of course there are companies that have left and that will leave, highly-skilled workflow for London that will be harder to get, etc. They have to negotiate with the EU so…

> If anything because they'll have to rewrite thousands of laws and procedures that came from the EU times, and deal with the caos that that will cause. That only would justify stay in the EU.

No, we'll keep most of those laws, because in order to trade with the EU we'd have to comply with them anyway. We just lose any ability to control them.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#55

Post by Angostura »

marrs wrote: post #46
forinti wrote: post #9

I can't decide if Brexit is good or bad for the UK. On the one hand, there's the common market and freedom of movement. On the other there's Germany's dominance and lots of fragile banks. What would be worse, losing access to the free market or being around if the banks fail? Or would being outside the market make a difference if Deutsche Bank failed?

Losing access to the free market would be fine if we gain access to the global market, at least in the medium to long term. The ability to drop tariffs on imports would be a big deal even in the short term. In reality, though, I don't see us leaving the trappings of the EU with this current govt: we'll just lose our seat at the table (to coin a phrase). This was never going to be quick, though: the Brexit issue will…

> the younger generation seem to be far more ambivalent about freedom of speech, democracy, et al. to the point that they seem to be actively suspicious of it.

Oddly enough, I suspect that the younger generation probably think that about the Daily Mail reading older generation.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#56

Post by djsumdog »

dx034 wrote: post #4
Nursie wrote: post #2

This seems speculative and it effectively posits a worst-of-all-worlds situation resulting - one if which the UK is half inside the single market. Half inside such that it allows the flow of goods (the UK is a net importer) but not services (which we net export). This would be untenable, worse than a no-deal situation. And the basis of this speculation is that the EU is holding all the cards. I'm really not convinced…

Isn't a Canada-like solution exactly what current negotiations appear to work towards? Barnier presented a slide with options for the UK and a free trade agreement like with Canada was the only one that doesn't violate red lines set by the UK government. Such a free-trade agreement would allow most goods to flow relatively freely but doesn't have any provisions for services.

We don't have bilateral work agreements with Canada. Americans and Canadians still need visas to live and work in the other country. Depending on the deal, UK/EU citizens may lose the ability to work in the others' area.

Interestingly enough, Australia and New Zealand have a bilateral work agreement, allowing citizens of either country to be instant residents of the other State upon arrival.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#57

Post by kypro »

te_chris wrote: post #23

Now Nigel (fucking) Farage is calling for a 2nd referendum. You can't make this shit up. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/11/nigel-farag...

What's your point? Or are you just reading the headline?

He is saying a second referendum could show the politicians who have been pushing for a soft brexit recently that this is really what the British public want.

What point are you trying to make?

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#58

Post by moomin »

StanAngeloff wrote: post #5

As a EU resident who is a partner in several UK based businesses, the uncertainty over what's coming next is frightening. When I approached different colleagues, friends & family in the UK, they all had different views on what should happen. To an outsider, it looks like opinions have been polarised. If you are managing a business that has ties to the UK there are very many unknowns right now. It's a lot easier to pl…

You're right about the polarisation. The same forces in play in America are in play in Britain right now. It's no accident that Trump described himself as "Mr Brexit". Authoritarian voters support Brexit, liberal ones don't. The major parties split right/left not authoritarian/liberal and are terrified of losing their voting base. I know a die hard leaver, she's one of the few people I'd trust my children with. She's also an authoritarian leftist who can't understand why we're not out already and wants to get rid of immigrants.

The London Tech scene (which skews left/liberal) seems to be hemorrhaging talented people to Berlin and other places. All of these people are what I think of as natural Londoners, but they're deciding for their own reasons that Britain isn't the place they thought it was. (Me, I've got a wife and kids, it's harder to up sticks. That and I love this country.)

Meanwhile, inflation is so bad the supermarkets are quietly reducing the quantity in boxes to avoid giving shoppers a heart attack at the prices, and Brexit _hasn't even happened yet_.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#59

Post by north_east_dev »

alimw wrote: post #19
Nursie wrote: post #2

This seems speculative and it effectively posits a worst-of-all-worlds situation resulting - one if which the UK is half inside the single market. Half inside such that it allows the flow of goods (the UK is a net importer) but not services (which we net export). This would be untenable, worse than a no-deal situation. And the basis of this speculation is that the EU is holding all the cards. I'm really not convinced…

> The article reads a little bit like a remain fantasy - Brexit will be a disaster and then people must come around to my way of thinking! The article makes its prediction based on higher rates of death in old people.

Which is pretty stupid tbh. You could look at the results of the original Europe referendum in the 70's and say that of course as the old die off, the Remain will just grow and grow. And then we got Brexit. People's opinions change as they age.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#60

Post by djsumdog »

maze-le wrote: post #24
627467 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious: what are the cards UK is holding?

The UK has a population of 65M. Thus there is a big market for all kinds of exports. As far as cards go this is a big one, but its the only one I can identify.

Not just good, but skills. Remember there is a work agreement for EU nations. Right now, essential skilled human resources can easily be grabbed from both sides of the channel, with little to no immigration paperwork.
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