He's got a point. It's surprised me how many small day-to-day decisions made by management are because of Brexit.
Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?
21–30 of 235 posts
Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
Isn't a Canada-like solution exactly what current negotiations appear to work towards? Barnier presented a slide with options for the UK and a free trade agreement like with Canada was the only one that doesn't violate red lines set by the UK government. Such a free-trade agreement would allow most goods to flow relatively freely but doesn't have any provisions for services.
Yeah this seems like the most reasonable option. Even not having service trade isn’t a great disaster. Companies with sizeable EU revenue can just set up a European subsidiary (in Ireland, etc) to conduct business in Europe from the UK (or anywhere). (Though I accept it’ll be a pain for e.g. finance companies which the EU requires to be based within the EU,) Startups eespecially aren’t held back by these rules right…
> Though I accept it’ll be a pain for e.g. finance companies which the EU requires to be based within the EU
What kind of services does the UK export which do not fall into the finance category?
Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?
#23Now Nigel (fucking) Farage is calling for a 2nd referendum. You can't make this shit up.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/11/nigel-farag...
Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?
#24This seems speculative and it effectively posits a worst-of-all-worlds situation resulting - one if which the UK is half inside the single market. Half inside such that it allows the flow of goods (the UK is a net importer) but not services (which we net export). This would be untenable, worse than a no-deal situation. And the basis of this speculation is that the EU is holding all the cards. I'm really not convinced…
I'm curious: what are the cards UK is holding?
The UK has a population of 65M. Thus there is a big market for all kinds of exports. As far as cards go this is a big one, but its the only one I can identify.
Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Isn't a Canada-like solution exactly what current negotiations appear to work towards? Quite possibly, but I'm not familiar enough with CETA to know the answer to this question - does CETA restrict Canada's ability to enter other trade agreements with third-party nations? The partial Single Market membership mentioned in the article does come with that proviso - that the UK cannot make trade deals with other nation…
Do you think UK is open to leaving with no deal then? Granted, if the EU position is sabotaged by some members (as the Polish PM was hinting towards), maybe the UK can get a better deal than what implied by the article. But if the EU stands together, I see little reason for them to be considerate to quitters.
> Granted, if the EU position is sabotaged by some members (as the Polish PM was hinting towards)
The biggest problem of the EU is also its biggest strength. It needs unity for this. So if Poland goes rogue nothing happens, article 50 kicks in and no deal happens. That indirectly strengthens the EU now quite a bit ironically enough.
Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?
#26I can't decide if Brexit is good or bad for the UK. On the one hand, there's the common market and freedom of movement. On the other there's Germany's dominance and lots of fragile banks. What would be worse, losing access to the free market or being around if the banks fail? Or would being outside the market make a difference if Deutsche Bank failed?
Not sure how being outside the EU would help the UK against "Germany's dominance" Surely out of the EU means by definition that the UK has less control over Germany?
Sure, but Germany will have less control over the UK.
From what I can tell and have read Germany has huge influence on pretty much every country besides Poland and--perhaps--Hungary (I live in Poland, not sure about Hungary actually). Poland definitely thinks about its own citizens _first_, and _then_ at what's good for the EU, which is after all what politicians have been elected to do.
I'm Italian and Italy is a mess in part because of having no balls to stand up for what Italians would need. Totally different story in Poland, from what I can tell from living here.
Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?
#27Amazing how small errors in a text start to degrade your confidence in the content. At the outset the sentences are clear and mostly correct. As it goes on small errors start to appear and occasionally the entire meaning of a sentence becomes unclear. By the end, reading his slightly dramatic flourish, you get the feeling that he wrote with some emotion and wasn't tending to the language very carefully. On the one ha…
As a non English speaker some passages were difficult do understand and I had to re-read them several time; I can now attribute that to typos and feel smarter~
Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?
#28I can't decide if Brexit is good or bad for the UK. On the one hand, there's the common market and freedom of movement. On the other there's Germany's dominance and lots of fragile banks. What would be worse, losing access to the free market or being around if the banks fail? Or would being outside the market make a difference if Deutsche Bank failed?
There are few "firewalls" between financial markets, there's one market and it's global. If there's another bank crisis, it's going to happen everywhere. Iceland was particularly badly hit and is not actually in the EU.
Let's not forget that the last crisis started in the "Anglosphere" (Lehman, RBS, Northern Rock, Anglo-Irish etc) and spread elsewhere!
Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?
#29Now Nigel (fucking) Farage is calling for a 2nd referendum. You can't make this shit up. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/11/nigel-farag...
Cameron lost his snap vote. May lost her snap vote. Sounds like Farage wants to lose a poorly thought out vote now too.
Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?
#30I can't decide if Brexit is good or bad for the UK. On the one hand, there's the common market and freedom of movement. On the other there's Germany's dominance and lots of fragile banks. What would be worse, losing access to the free market or being around if the banks fail? Or would being outside the market make a difference if Deutsche Bank failed?
I thought London was supposed to be one of the major banking centres of Europe? So if the banks are fragile, the UK is just as exposed in that regards, or perhaps more exposed as it will no longer be (as?) able to ask the ECB for assistance?