I appreciate the planning fallacy. I usually do this implicitly but I just changed an expected timeline on a JIRA epic from 80 hours to 160 days after reading this.
80 hours to 160 days? Or do you mean 80 hours to 160 hours?
Useful Mental Models (2016)
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Re: Useful Mental Models (2016)
#12I appreciate the planning fallacy. I usually do this implicitly but I just changed an expected timeline on a JIRA epic from 80 hours to 160 days after reading this.
There's a reason I encourage calling a collection of epics a "fantasy".
Re: Useful Mental Models (2016)
#13Farnam Street Blog also has their comprehensive list of mental models: https://www.farnamstreetblog.com/mental-models/
Re: Useful Mental Models (2016)
#14I appreciate the planning fallacy. I usually do this implicitly but I just changed an expected timeline on a JIRA epic from 80 hours to 160 days after reading this.
80 hours to 160 days? Or do you mean 80 hours to 160 hours?
The article said, “upgrade the units and double the estimate.”
So 20 hours -> 40 days -> 80 weeks -> 160 months
Re: Useful Mental Models (2016)
#15Wow. This is a great list. I've seen individual ideas here and there but never put together in a list. This is excellent for exploring these ideas in one shot.
Re: Useful Mental Models (2016)
#16Re: Useful Mental Models (2016)
#17Nice. This is a good addition to "List of cognitive biases", a Wikipedia article I've liked to read from time to time ever since I discovered it, years ago.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
As a Stoic, it's good food for thought to improve your "perception" of life and the world.
Re: Useful Mental Models (2016)
#18The method of loci[1] is missing from this list. I am a visual/spatial learner, and find it quite useful for quick information storage and retrieval.
Re: Useful Mental Models (2016)
#19I appreciate the planning fallacy. I usually do this implicitly but I just changed an expected timeline on a JIRA epic from 80 hours to 160 days after reading this.
Watch out - there is a reverse bias, Parkinson's law, that work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion. This is why Elon Musk sets absurd deadlines he rarely can meet, to resist the expansion of make-work and administrative bloat which consumes longer-timed tasks.
Re: Useful Mental Models (2016)
#20I think this is great! I love to explore how I think by asking myself questions on how I do things, be it decision making or planning.
I created this site which I use to help me figure things out.
https://www.deepthoughtapp.com/en/topics/decisions/ https://www.deepthoughtapp.com/en/topics/planning/