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“Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

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Re: “Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

#71

Post by varjag »

melling wrote: post #8
Danihan wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're an example of not orienting your perspective properly.. ;) The internet, a global communications network that everyone carries with them in their pocket on a mini touchscreen PC, is fucking incredible. Even prisoners who go away for 10-15 years have been blown away by the advancements in cell phone technology and adoption when they get out.

The Internet is about 5 decades old. I shot the shit almost exactly like this on Usenet decades ago. Cell phones? They’re smaller, great. http://www.slate.com/blogs/browbeat/2010/09/23/gordon_gekko_... Everyone expects the world to change, and advance. It’s not fucking incredible. Even John Sculley saw it coming. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cultofmac.com/120716/apple-...

If anything, my cellphone was tiniest around 2004 and gradually bloated back to mid-1990s sizes.

Re: “Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

#72

Post by mikestew »

ben_w wrote: post #68
mikestew wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Instead, we inflate our consumption and keep working 40 hours "We"? I'd happily work at software rates for 20 hours/week. And, yeah, I understand the fundamental shift in a lot of things before that's a practical option. I'm not even disagreeing with you, I think you're spot on. But those that have simple, inexpensive lifestyles still don't have the option of working less. So though even I consume more than I used to…

Housing is the main cost, and it scales with average take-home income — which is why two-income-no-kids families aren’t as well off as one might expect from looking at single-income families from the 1960s. If you can somehow disregard housing as a cost, and have health insurance anywhere except the USA, 20 hours per week is fine. I’d manage on 10 hours per week minimum wage in the UK, but that doesn’t really count b…

Housing is the main cost, and it scales with average take-home income

Shows you what happens when you're well-ensconced in your own personal bubble. It didn't occur to me until you pointed it out that the reason I could easily live on 20 hours/week is partially due to the fact that our $650K house cost us a third of that, because we bought it twelve years ago. Living on 20 hours/week and making the payment on a $650K house might be a little tight. Fine, make it 30 hours/week. :-)

Re: “Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

#73

Post by greenhouse_gas »

goatlover wrote: post #11
Danihan wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're an example of not orienting your perspective properly.. ;) The internet, a global communications network that everyone carries with them in their pocket on a mini touchscreen PC, is fucking incredible. Even prisoners who go away for 10-15 years have been blown away by the advancements in cell phone technology and adoption when they get out.

It is incredible, and most people didn't see it coming, but compared to the scifi stuff I read and watched as a kid, the future doesn't feel all that mind-blowing, at least so far. Part of it is living through it and adjusting to the changes, but I was also born into a world that had TVs, telephones, microwaves, VCRs, satellites, space programs, and personal computers. Computer networks and games existed back then. M…

It's because there's a difference between cool and usable.

For example - compare a Virtual Reality 3D city you can scroll around on your computer, visiting different houses, "chatting" with them, then reading what they posted on their public refrigerator door, then maybe reading some books from their shelf, watch a movie together then you "walk" to a library ... To the internet (Facebook + Wikipedia).

What's cooler? Obviously #1.

What's more usable? #2.

If you could go back in time to the 70s, what would you show on a futuristic movie?

#1, since the you want to "wow" your audience, who won't have to deal with such mundane issues as vertigo, or rapid navigability, or searchability.

But it's not that we can't do #1. We not only could do it, but there were many tries (VRML was supposed to be the "next big thing" since the 90's). It's just that our current UI is better.

Re: “Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

#74

Post by nine_k »

fumonko wrote: post #6

Does anyone know of a recently written book that tries to predict the world fifty years from now?

If you want an interesting dark view, try Blindsight by P. Watts. It's SF, but it's 10+ hard on Mohs scale of SF hardness, with 100 references to papers in the end. Contains a number of, mmm, interesting social vistas.

Re: “Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

#75

Post by Chris_Newton »

fumonko wrote: post #6

Does anyone know of a recently written book that tries to predict the world fifty years from now?

Not quite the timescale you asked for, but The World in 2050 by Laurence C. Smith was an interesting read. At the time of writing he was predicting things about 40 years ahead.

Re: “Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

#76

Post by nine_k »

varjag wrote: post #65
ben_w wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If energy cost were the main obstacle, upper-income people would already have hovercars, because spending 4x more on fuel than people driving wheeled vehicles would be fine for them. They do, they’re just called “helicopters”.

It isn't like helicopters were unknown in 1968.

When I walk down the streets of NYC, I keep seeing private helicopters flying to and fro, along with police helicopters.

I don't think it was the case in 1968 yet.

Also, small personal radio-controlled helicopters with cameras, often seen in SF from 1960-70s, are a thing for many years now, known as "drones".

Re: “Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

#77

Post by smellf »

Momquist wrote: post #70
WaxProlix wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a lot of what people get wrong in these predictions is the social element. Dad's telecommuting to work in the study and smoking Lucky Strikes while Mom - aproned and barefoot - cooks in the kitchen, that sort of thing. What this misses - aside from the basic incorrectness itself - is that shifts in social perception and overall conscientiousness are major drivers of innovation. So, look at the intersection of…

That's what I was thinking too. When I think about failed predictions, the flying car almost immediately comes to mind. You could see them regularly on 50s-60s pop-science and SF magazines covers. Back then there was the idea that flying machines would soon become affordable on an individual level, and that most people would want to buy their own helicopter or small plane. Quite a few SF novels assumed it was a defin…

Simak was a terrible predictor (if "prediction" is even what he was trying to do, vs just writing science fantasy), but his "pastoral scifi" is such a treat to read even today.

It's possible that he was predicting, and that those ideas were common at that time - Clarke's Childhood's End came out just one year after City (1953) and also features personal flying transport and lots of rural life (even though cities still exist).

Re: “Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

#78

Post by QAPereo »

Sylos wrote: post #67
FireBeyond wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But then the question becomes 'literally anti-gravity', or more likely, 'personal flying devices'. Certainly not the same thing but, for the most part, the same effect.

My vote is on quantum levitation. Wings, jetpacks and mini-helicopters are all already hitting the limitations of their physics and still far away from anything you would casually carry around.

Room temp superconductors would be the key for that I think, but yeah, I’m with you on this.

Re: “Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

#79

Post by timcederman »

mandelbulb wrote: post #69
timcederman wrote: post #61

Interesting that the article lists global warming from carbon dioxide as one "unnervingly close to the mark". The first public written record we have of that possibility dates to 1912: https://qz.com/817354/scientists-have-been-forecasting-that-...

The initial public record is not that relevant. More importantly, during the 50s scientists had already begun to agree global warming is a serious, occurring issue. Compared to other issues, however, like the depletion of the ozone layer later on, measures against climate change have had to deal with the oil industry the entire world is still relying on.

My points being is if it comes 56 years after it's first publicly raised as an issue, it's not particularly prescient.

Re: “Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

#80

Post by [deleted] »

Nav_Panel wrote: post #3
melling wrote: post #2

In 1968 you looked back 50 years to 1918 and realized how much incredible change took place. Extrapolate out 50 years and the future probably looked close to the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey, released in 1968 Any chance we can get that future?

Many future predictions from the 1950s were based on the promise of unlimited electricity. Once this comes to pass, we can have hovercars and whatnot. Instead, we got "unlimited" information. Although this doesn't translate as well into physical products, the world still looks/feels wildly futuristic if you orient your perspective correctly.

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