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“Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

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Re: “Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

#51

Post by justherefortart »

shrimp_emoji wrote: post #28
vulcanodon wrote: post #19

Hey neat, I've had a copy of this book on my shelf for a few years now, but I'd forgotten all about it. Very interesting to read about the background behind the text. Maybe I should print out the article and store it with the book for future readers.

And this comment thread! You want your time capsule to be thorough, right? c: Hey, nerds in 2068! Today, we think mobile devices, IoT creep, the cloud, and machine learning are the future of computing while lamenting an erosion of privacy and security; were we silly geese, or is that your guys' reality? Also, have you contacted aliens or become digital consciousnesses yet? Yours, someone who's hopefully still alive (…

2068 here, everyone's addicted to virtual sex. Once you had body suits that could simulate your entire environment, we no longer cared about being outside the facebook social network in a real sense.

A few of us venture outside to reminisce about the old days, but our fascismo overlords have made those opportunities less and less over the years.

Reap the discord you've sown.

Re: “Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

#52

Post by brabel »

shrimp_emoji wrote: post #28
vulcanodon wrote: post #19

Hey neat, I've had a copy of this book on my shelf for a few years now, but I'd forgotten all about it. Very interesting to read about the background behind the text. Maybe I should print out the article and store it with the book for future readers.

And this comment thread! You want your time capsule to be thorough, right? c: Hey, nerds in 2068! Today, we think mobile devices, IoT creep, the cloud, and machine learning are the future of computing while lamenting an erosion of privacy and security; were we silly geese, or is that your guys' reality? Also, have you contacted aliens or become digital consciousnesses yet? Yours, someone who's hopefully still alive (…

Nobody will understand what "IoT creep" and "cloud" mean (at least not the meaning you imply) in 50 years :D

So, for their benefit: - IoT creep - Internet of Things is a movement towards adding tiny computers into all things (light switches, plant watering systems, fridges, toasters ...) so they can communicate and be controlled from mobile phones. - Cloud - refers to cloud computing, which is just the way we call when you put information or code to run on a company's server instead of on your own computer.

Re: “Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

#53

Post by varjag »

bencollier49 wrote: post #48
Top19 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Copyright 2009 The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century https://www.amazon.com/dp/0767923057/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_e-6u...

"2020: China Fragments"?

He also predicted the new cold war with Russia, at the time where such sentiments were dismissed as out of touch with reality.

Re: “Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

#54

Post by varjag »

brabel wrote: post #52
shrimp_emoji wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this comment thread! You want your time capsule to be thorough, right? c: Hey, nerds in 2068! Today, we think mobile devices, IoT creep, the cloud, and machine learning are the future of computing while lamenting an erosion of privacy and security; were we silly geese, or is that your guys' reality? Also, have you contacted aliens or become digital consciousnesses yet? Yours, someone who's hopefully still alive (…

Nobody will understand what "IoT creep" and "cloud" mean (at least not the meaning you imply) in 50 years :D So, for their benefit: - IoT creep - Internet of Things is a movement towards adding tiny computers into all things (light switches, plant watering systems, fridges, toasters ...) so they can communicate and be controlled from mobile phones. - Cloud - refers to cloud computing, which is just the way we call wh…

We understand the general trends in tech that happened 50 years ago, I fail to see why people in the future would be different.

Re: “Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

#55

Post by planteen »

iooi wrote: post #29
planteen wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"When was the last time you used a paper map?" "When was the last time you had to spend 15 minutes planning out where and when you would meet when because your group is splitting up when on a trip?" I do these things all the time as many of my hobbies are outdoor activities. For example, at Arapahoe Basin, a ski area in Colorado near Denver, cell reception is non-existent. So you need to have a plan for people to mee…

You don't need cell coverage to look at maps on your phone. The GPS in your phone will work without coverage. Use Gaia GPS and/or Avenza Maps, they're far, far superior to paper maps. GGP is right, we live in the future. Obviously, it doesn't hurt to bring a paper map, but you'll find that you're not going to use them at all. We live in the future.

> Obviously, it doesn't hurt to bring a paper map, but you'll find that you're not going to use them at all. We live in the future.

I disagree for multi-day or technical trips. I have done expedition style trips where I am camped in the mountains for weeks. I have been using a Garmin 60CSx GPS for years and love it. It has topo maps on it, typically at 1:24k, and they are invaluable. I have tried bringing a phone, but I don't like phones because touch screens are a royal pain with a hand that is gloved or in mittens. Phones also don't take AA batteries like a GPS or headlamp and are battery hogs. So you need to bring along more junk to keep them charged.

For within the US, the National Geographic Trails illustrated maps are awesome. They are rip proof and printed on waterproof paper. And they are large when unfolded, so it's easy to quickly scan and find things unlike trying to scroll around on a small phone screen.

http://www.natgeomaps.com/trail-maps/trails-illustrated-maps...

For lots of hikes and climbs that are more on the technical side, your route information ("beta") is probably going to be written on paper. When you are climbing something that is very steep or in canyon country, GPS is useless. You need visual information on the route you need to take and that may be a photo or sketch. And this is easy to keep folded in your pocket and remove with a gloved hand. On a summer weekend in Colorado on the summit of a more difficult 14er (think Crestone Needle or Capitol), you will see many people with printed guides from 14ers.com. So its just not me. I don't see many people using their phones for navigation (but they do for pictures).

And in a cave, there is no substitute for a paper map. But that's a different ball of wax.

Re: “Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

#56

Post by pwinnski »

mikestew wrote: post #25
aidenn0 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When was the last time you used a paper map? When was the last time you used the yellow pages? How much money have you spent buying encyclopedias in the last 20 years? How much time searching for someone who has a mediocre copy-of-a-copy of bootleg tapes of that one amazing concert by the band you liked? How many hours have you spent on the phone with a company because you lost the user's manual to their product? How…

And yet pretty much everyone still gets up, drives a car alone to work, does their eight, nine hours, drives home alone in that same car, eats, watches a little TV, and goes to bed. I was born in 1963. Where's the 30 hour work week I was promised? Why am I still driving a gas vehicle by myself to work? Geopolitics? Same shit, different day. Sure, we got an unlimited flow of information, and that has most certainly re…

The numbers suggest that we could live 1950-style lives working only eleven hours per week[0]. Instead, we inflate our consumption and keep working 40 hours, living in houses more than twice as large[1], commuting ever-longer distances[2], paying daily (or more than daily) for others to prepare food we could have prepared ourselves, and just generally choosing to live many times as large. We adapt so quickly that we don't even realize that we've nearly-quadrupled our lifestyles, but that's where the 30-hour work week went.

[0] http://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/users/rauch/worktime/

[1] http://www.moyak.com/papers/house-sizes.html

[2] https://www.thoughtco.com/americans-commuting-over-100-hours...

Re: “Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

#57

Post by mikestew »

pwinnski wrote: post #56
mikestew wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet pretty much everyone still gets up, drives a car alone to work, does their eight, nine hours, drives home alone in that same car, eats, watches a little TV, and goes to bed. I was born in 1963. Where's the 30 hour work week I was promised? Why am I still driving a gas vehicle by myself to work? Geopolitics? Same shit, different day. Sure, we got an unlimited flow of information, and that has most certainly re…

The numbers suggest that we could live 1950-style lives working only eleven hours per week[0]. Instead, we inflate our consumption and keep working 40 hours, living in houses more than twice as large[1], commuting ever-longer distances[2], paying daily (or more than daily) for others to prepare food we could have prepared ourselves, and just generally choosing to live many times as large. We adapt so quickly that we…

Instead, we inflate our consumption and keep working 40 hours

"We"? I'd happily work at software rates for 20 hours/week. And, yeah, I understand the fundamental shift in a lot of things before that's a practical option. I'm not even disagreeing with you, I think you're spot on. But those that have simple, inexpensive lifestyles still don't have the option of working less. So though even I consume more than I used to, I also try to shovel as much as I can into the retirement accounts.

Re: “Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

#58

Post by brabel »

gpsx wrote: post #22
melling wrote: post #2

In 1968 you looked back 50 years to 1918 and realized how much incredible change took place. Extrapolate out 50 years and the future probably looked close to the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey, released in 1968 Any chance we can get that future?

I'd like to back this up and I am going to use a really bad example - the movie "Back to the Future". When they went from the present back to 1955, the world looked a little different. When the went back to 1885 in "Back to the Future 3", it was a different world. People were running around in dirt streets shooting each other. Granted these dates are a little different. I would consider the 100 years more from 1900 t…

> We didn't have nearly the same advances from 1950 to 2000.

You couldn't be more wrong!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerating_change https://www.yaabot.com/12800/how-far-are-we-from-the-singula...

Re: “Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

#59

Post by jpfed »

gpsx wrote: post #22
melling wrote: post #2

In 1968 you looked back 50 years to 1918 and realized how much incredible change took place. Extrapolate out 50 years and the future probably looked close to the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey, released in 1968 Any chance we can get that future?

I'd like to back this up and I am going to use a really bad example - the movie "Back to the Future". When they went from the present back to 1955, the world looked a little different. When the went back to 1885 in "Back to the Future 3", it was a different world. People were running around in dirt streets shooting each other. Granted these dates are a little different. I would consider the 100 years more from 1900 t…

>Cell phones and the internet are huge, but that didn't come until the very tail end.

When change is exponential, most of the change in general doesn't come until the very end.

Re: “Toward the Year 2018”, a speculative book from 1968

#60

Post by QAPereo »

FireBeyond wrote: post #50
QAPereo wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well you pointed out one biggie: the known laws of physics. Anti-gravity may be possible, but there is no theory to explain it, and so it’s hard to predict in a positive way. By contrast advances in materials science, miniaturization, novel sources of energy, are more fruitful. It can also help to look at the state of current laboratory research. Look at where transistors were a ~100 years ago, and then now. Look at…

But then the question becomes 'literally anti-gravity', or more likely, 'personal flying devices'. Certainly not the same thing but, for the most part, the same effect.

When it comes to flying devices for the individual I think the thing we learned about all is just how little we want people raining down on us from the sky. Not to mention the difficulties of air traffic control with a few hundred million people in the air. So ask yourself if FlyingtechX can really solve that?
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