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The cryptocurrency bubble is strangling innovation?

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Re: The cryptocurrency bubble is strangling innovation?

#81
post #68

What I have seen is a lot of people in my space have dropped what they are doing to focus on blockchain/crypto. They are chasing novelty, they do not seem dedicated to their craft. I think this is a bit of a problem.

Why would studying and working with a new and profitable technology mean people lack a dedication to their craft? That's a poor assertion at best.

Re: The cryptocurrency bubble is strangling innovation?

#82
post #71

Reading the original Satoshi paper, the point of Bitcoin is to be decentralized/trustless and to enable microtransactions by lowering transaction fees. Both these goals seem to have failed in practice, the latter spectacularly (although other cryptocurrencies have done better in this regard). To truly be trustless, you can't generate keys/addresses on some website like bitaddress or use some other online wallet, as y…

This is a great analysis. The lack of trust as a feature in cryptocurrency is really a bug in society. Bitcoin rose out of the previous financial collapse by appealing to people who have lost trust in institutions. The problem with building a trustless answer to that problem is that (assertions ahead) life isn't compatible with an absence of trust. Trying to build a trustless financial system is a quixotic undertakin…

The financial system isn't all that dependent on trust. There are all sorts of reconciliations and audits, which wouldn't be necessary if entities trusted each other. Those methods are slower and costlier than what blockchains may be able to offer.

On the other hand, 2008 was partly enabled by entities trusting each other. They trusted AAA ratings, AIG, Goldman Sachs, and third party holders of mortgage records. In various ways, all these systems failed the people who trusted them.

Re: The cryptocurrency bubble is strangling innovation?

#83
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One could argue that a blockchain's only real world purpose is as a shared database, just as http's only real world purpose is the transfer of data between computers. So far it seems like the only thing anyone actually makes based on this shared database are new mini-currencies.

Again, useful applications being crowded out by speculative ones. Why bother making anything if you can apparently trivially print money. Until the bubble ends.

Can we at least articulate a useful application, one that takes into consideration economic viability in the context of the decentralized consensus engine's extremely high resource cost and extremely poor performance?

Re: The cryptocurrency bubble is strangling innovation?

#84

> Look at the dot-com boom. A lot of people lost a whole lot of paper money, but it brought us a cheap worldwide fiber backbone and companies like Amazon and Google. If the point the author is trying to make is that Amazon and Google were made possible by the dotcom boom, and that the collapse of the dotcom bubble was part of the price we as a society had to pay to have the services provided these companies, that's a…

Google also picked up a lot of employees who were drawn to the SF Bay for the dot com boom, and were laid off from the dot coms in the bust.

It didn't hurt to have a large pool of ambitious and underutilized technical folks around to choose from.

Re: The cryptocurrency bubble is strangling innovation?

#85
The incentives for building a crypto product with real intentions of bringing a product to people vs. writing a whitepaper for fundraising are alarming.

Besides the rising fees (which can be mitigated with added protocol layers like lightning) the real problem is people understanding cryptocurrencies as investment. "Crypto investors" and people hoping to get rich quick who don't understand the fundamental philosophy of Bitcoin/Crypto are strangling innovation by adding "noise" attention to whatever developers like us "signal" are making.

Personally, I hope the bubble bursts, everyone lose their money and we go back to the original community of people building stuff, who see cryptocurrency as a technology, not an "investment". If Bitcoin drops to $1, I will still write software for it and won't miss the 'craze' factor.

Re: The cryptocurrency bubble is strangling innovation?

#86
post #14
post #6

> It remains an open question whether even much, much lower fees would be viable in the long run. The problem is not fees rather usability. If today I speak to a layman about bitcoin he is confused. It doesn't help that people start talking about hardware wallets, multisigs, Segwit etc. Most of those guys find that using cryptocurrency is a pain and want to stick to real money. Yes, it doesn't stop them from speculat…

> One thing has to be noted, while there is a constant parallel drawn with dot com people forget that there was at least 7-8 years head start for a layman to understand "internet". Bitcoin has been around for 8 years so it's not like there hasn't been enough time. The difference is that the internet was easy to explain to people because it had a number of immediately useful applications: you could almost immediately…

The potential use really clicked with me recently when I was browsing someone's site and came across a linked bitcoin address. One tap/click on that link followed by an amount and another button press, and I could pay that person money, directly: that's a very low barrier to payments. And with the same wallet, I can also scan a QR code on someone's phone and pay them money.

I think these benefits are tangible, but whilst the current block chain mechanism might demonstrate the utility, what we really need are the fee/transaction time problem to be resolved.

I really want someone far more intelligent than me to explain whether or not a zero-sum instantaneous transaction is formally, logically impossible (via a successor to block chain?) because that really is the killer app, imo.

Re: The cryptocurrency bubble is strangling innovation?

#87
post #68

What I have seen is a lot of people in my space have dropped what they are doing to focus on blockchain/crypto. They are chasing novelty, they do not seem dedicated to their craft. I think this is a bit of a problem.

I have a friend who just quit his job on Friday to join a company that just laid off 2/3 of their staff to do a blockchain project. The company currently does nothing related to the blockchain and they do not have an idea for a product yet. It seems like such a weird thing to do.

Re: The cryptocurrency bubble is strangling innovation?

#88
post #71

Reading the original Satoshi paper, the point of Bitcoin is to be decentralized/trustless and to enable microtransactions by lowering transaction fees. Both these goals seem to have failed in practice, the latter spectacularly (although other cryptocurrencies have done better in this regard). To truly be trustless, you can't generate keys/addresses on some website like bitaddress or use some other online wallet, as y…

This is a great analysis. The lack of trust as a feature in cryptocurrency is really a bug in society. Bitcoin rose out of the previous financial collapse by appealing to people who have lost trust in institutions. The problem with building a trustless answer to that problem is that (assertions ahead) life isn't compatible with an absence of trust. Trying to build a trustless financial system is a quixotic undertakin…

Our current financial system does require end-users like you and me to trust each other either.

It only requires us to trust the legal system

Re: The cryptocurrency bubble is strangling innovation?

#90
post #61
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't solve a problem that average american has right now . The key feature of crypto currency (to me) has always been that it can't be easily manipulated by a government. Specifically with bitcoin, were it not so expensive and have such high fees, it could be of real use in countries with hyperinflation and black markets (Venezuela, Zimbabwe, etc). Hopefully bitcoin and the myriad of alt-coins can fill the gap. On…

But it can absolutely be easily manipulated by a government. Governments have the resources to pump/dump coins, buy huge amounts of mining hardware, etc. Even a smaller nation state could, if it wanted to waste the money, launch a 51% attack against Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency by just buying enough mining hardware. Beyond direct manipulation you have the ability of competent intelligence agencies to execute m…

Actually, no.

Current estimates rate the cost of a 51% attack at approximatly 4.656.671.184$ for hardware only which is not a sum which even large countries will have easy (and certainly not unnoticed) access to.

This estimate is based on the current hash rate at 14.975.580.960 GHash/s and the fastest mining hardware available which is the AntMiner S5+ at ~2300$ with a hashrate of 7.722 GHash/s. That means you'll need about ~1.939.340 AntMiners which will consume 3436W each. At an electricty cost of 0.05ct/kwh (this is china, US is at about ~0.20ct/kwh) this gives you an additional cost of ~7.996.185$ per day not factoring in any labor/location costs and most notably no cooling costs which will be high with this kind of high performance asic.

This estimate only holds true though if you buy every bit of hardware yourself, in reality its probably more practical to simple coerce big mining pool owners to work for you, but thats another problem :)

edit: relevant xkcd: https://xkcd.com/538/

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