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Magic Leap House of Cards – FSD, Waveguides, and Focus Planes

kguttag.com

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Re: Magic Leap House of Cards – FSD, Waveguides, and Focus Planes

#11

Post by CamperBob2 »

kguttag wrote: post #7
drcode wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm definitely a Magic Leap skeptic, but these Karl Guttag posts do not read like posts from someone who is trying to do an objective analysis of the tech, they read like posts from someone who has an axe to grind. Often, when I see posts from very smart and technically savvy people that call things "cons" or "scams" it's because they have very high personal standards of technology and are disappointed that others do…

Objective is often in the eye of the beholder. I do express opinion, but I try to back them up with evidence. The Fiber Scanning Display is in a whole different category. This looks like pure lying on Magic Leap's part. In this particular case I have tried to lay out the math that proves that Fiber Scanning Displays are never going to support high resolution. No amount of money or time is going to make Fiber Scanning…

I think it is a very valid point to asked how a company could have been presenting something that was not possible, why people invested in a company saying things that were not possible, and why Magic Leap is holding to the fiction that it might be possible. It seems to me to be a pretty simple question. Were they lying or did they not know what they are doing?

I've heard them referred to as the "Theranos of VR" more than once. And people are still throwing money at Theranos ( https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2017/12/26/theranos... ).

About the only conclusion that I've been able to draw is that a lot of people simply have too much money.

Re: Magic Leap House of Cards – FSD, Waveguides, and Focus Planes

#13

Post by deepnotderp »

jayd16 wrote: post #12
deepnotderp wrote: post #4

Also Moore's Law in this context doesn't even seem to make sense, the "Law" deals in transistors, not optical technologies.

Isn't Moore's Law currently tied to the progress of photolithography?

Yes, but that's not really the same optics.

Re: Magic Leap House of Cards – FSD, Waveguides, and Focus Planes

#14

Post by kguttag »

throwawaybbqed wrote: post #8
kguttag wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry if that was not clear, but what you said was the point I was trying to make. People today are all the time waving their hands and invoking "Moore's Law" and saying "Steve Job did this" and applying it to everything (I see it all the time in AR and Optics) and therefore anything is possible.

You mentioned CES prep .. are you presenting or at a booth? Or just packing? :) I went for the first time last year and didn't get to see to much stuff in optics (the big wow for me was seeing Kopin modules). Would love to get your thoughts on what is worth checking out at the show this year.

I'm there as "press" and a consultant. I have been juggling my calendar (I'm almost fully booked from before 9AM past 6PM the first 3 days) and getting back to people I am meeting with. In-between I am studying up (prepping) on the companies I am going to be meeting with.

I can't say who I am going to see as a lot of it is private. I will be spending a LOT of time in the Main Convention center South Hall with the AR and VR companies. The special section for AR and VR has moved from the back of South Hall to near the front this year. Then you have to look for the more established companies that booths elsewhere.

The CES tools for finding booths and vendors have improved dramatically form where they were a few years back. You can search based on what you are trying to find. They also have a smartphone ap that comes in handy at the show.

Re: Magic Leap House of Cards – FSD, Waveguides, and Focus Planes

#15

Post by onion2k »

QAPereo wrote: post #2

Another post from today, really laying out the math behind hi-res FSD being a bad joke. http://www.kguttag.com/2018/01/06/magic-leap-fiber-scanning-... Key point... Thus the fiber needs go 10.17 meters X 240/sec = 2,400 meters/sec. For reference, the speed of sound is a mere ~343 meters per second (varies with temp and air density) so the fiber has to average about 7 times the speed of sound and because it is acceler…

I don't know anything about FSD so I'm asking as a layman: why only have one fiber? If you could focus, say, 16 fibers on the same plane (as spirals making overlapping circles) then each one would only need to cover 120x68 pixels of the HD display so they could move much more slowly.

Re: Magic Leap House of Cards – FSD, Waveguides, and Focus Planes

#16

Post by ghusbands »

You're not going to find the technical truth on this blog. Look at the history of posts; the author clearly believes that Magic Leap is fraudulent at its core and wants to prove it. Everything Magic Leap does/says is attacked from that inherently biased position. Any facts or data presented on the blog will be with that goal in mind, and any facts or data that support the opposite will be downplayed or omitted.

I don't know whether Magic Leap actually will produce anything of merit, but this blog won't help anyone find out.

Re: Magic Leap House of Cards – FSD, Waveguides, and Focus Planes

#17

Post by alakin »

QAPereo wrote: post #2

Another post from today, really laying out the math behind hi-res FSD being a bad joke. http://www.kguttag.com/2018/01/06/magic-leap-fiber-scanning-... Key point... Thus the fiber needs go 10.17 meters X 240/sec = 2,400 meters/sec. For reference, the speed of sound is a mere ~343 meters per second (varies with temp and air density) so the fiber has to average about 7 times the speed of sound and because it is acceler…

Couldn't they just use multiple fibers per display to get around that problem?

Re: Magic Leap House of Cards – FSD, Waveguides, and Focus Planes

#18

Post by sytelus »

kguttag wrote: post #7
drcode wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm definitely a Magic Leap skeptic, but these Karl Guttag posts do not read like posts from someone who is trying to do an objective analysis of the tech, they read like posts from someone who has an axe to grind. Often, when I see posts from very smart and technically savvy people that call things "cons" or "scams" it's because they have very high personal standards of technology and are disappointed that others do…

Objective is often in the eye of the beholder. I do express opinion, but I try to back them up with evidence. The Fiber Scanning Display is in a whole different category. This looks like pure lying on Magic Leap's part. In this particular case I have tried to lay out the math that proves that Fiber Scanning Displays are never going to support high resolution. No amount of money or time is going to make Fiber Scanning…

But... they had done demos to many investors and at least one journalist who were convinced to give them money and write article. They have already announced that there will be product in 2018. What do you think they demoed and what the actual product will be?

Re: Magic Leap House of Cards – FSD, Waveguides, and Focus Planes

#19

Post by TeMPOraL »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #11
kguttag wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Objective is often in the eye of the beholder. I do express opinion, but I try to back them up with evidence. The Fiber Scanning Display is in a whole different category. This looks like pure lying on Magic Leap's part. In this particular case I have tried to lay out the math that proves that Fiber Scanning Displays are never going to support high resolution. No amount of money or time is going to make Fiber Scanning…

I think it is a very valid point to asked how a company could have been presenting something that was not possible, why people invested in a company saying things that were not possible, and why Magic Leap is holding to the fiction that it might be possible. It seems to me to be a pretty simple question. Were they lying or did they not know what they are doing? I've heard them referred to as the "Theranos of VR" more…

> I've heard them referred to as the "Theranos of VR" more than once.

Wouldn't "uBeam of VR" be a more apt description? There's no outright fraud yet, just (apparently) tons and tons of bullshit and impossible promises.

> About the only conclusion that I've been able to draw is that a lot of people simply have too much money.

In case someone with an itchy wallet reads this:

I'm working on quantum flux capacitance technology that can revolutionize cold fusion research schedules. I need only a modest $10M and zero oversight to bring it to a market. It's a safer and better investment (AAA+ five stars!) than Theranos - I'm not a kind of person that could turn it into a massive media scandal. Contact me, and I'll tell you where to wire the money.

Re: Magic Leap House of Cards – FSD, Waveguides, and Focus Planes

#20

Post by UncleEntity »

kguttag wrote: post #7
drcode wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm definitely a Magic Leap skeptic, but these Karl Guttag posts do not read like posts from someone who is trying to do an objective analysis of the tech, they read like posts from someone who has an axe to grind. Often, when I see posts from very smart and technically savvy people that call things "cons" or "scams" it's because they have very high personal standards of technology and are disappointed that others do…

Objective is often in the eye of the beholder. I do express opinion, but I try to back them up with evidence. The Fiber Scanning Display is in a whole different category. This looks like pure lying on Magic Leap's part. In this particular case I have tried to lay out the math that proves that Fiber Scanning Displays are never going to support high resolution. No amount of money or time is going to make Fiber Scanning…

> Were they lying or did they not know what they are doing?

This (less biased) article[0] seems to suggest your analysis is a bit off.

Isn't there some old saying about how an engineer can mathematically prove a bumblebee can't fly?

[0]https://gpuofthebrain.com/blog/2016/7/22/how-magic-leap-will...

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