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Spotify files for its IPO

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Re: Spotify files for its IPO

#202
post #46

I don't think this is a good long term investment. Disclaimer: I worked for a Spotify competitor in the past, so i have a pretty solid understanding of how the business works. I think it is a bad investment for one simple reason: Spotify purchases its main product (music) from a oligopoly. I'd estimate that 95%+ of the tracks streamed (by total playtime) are from one of the 3 major music labels: Universal, Sony or Wa…

This is the same problem Netflix & Amazon have been successful in combating. The answer is to become a content owner by competing with the big labels directly. All Spotify needs to push the big labels back on their heels is to sign a few top 40 artists of their own. I might be wrong but I remember reading something like 90%+ of streams on music services are of songs currently on the charts. Capture the popular cultur…

Big difference between TV and music streaming, in a nutshell: a TV streaming library is defined by what they have, a music streaming library is defined by what is missing.

Serial TV is consumed like a novel, as long as the next episode is available, the availability of everything else is unimportant. Music is consumed in a much more random access pattern, like a lexicon: if the letter M is missing, it's broken. ("You want that particular song by Morrissey? Sorry. Be sure to check out these five Spotify Originals that have also been tagged with #sad" - no, people won't be willing to pay for that)

Re: Spotify files for its IPO

#203
post #46

I don't think this is a good long term investment. Disclaimer: I worked for a Spotify competitor in the past, so i have a pretty solid understanding of how the business works. I think it is a bad investment for one simple reason: Spotify purchases its main product (music) from a oligopoly. I'd estimate that 95%+ of the tracks streamed (by total playtime) are from one of the 3 major music labels: Universal, Sony or Wa…

> People will switch to Apple Music, Amazon PrimeMusic, Tidal or any other service quickly.

How do these other services operate in contrast?

Re: Spotify files for its IPO

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is the same problem Netflix & Amazon have been successful in combating. The answer is to become a content owner by competing with the big labels directly. > All Spotify needs to push the big labels back on their heels is to sign a few top 40 artists of their own No way that's going to work. Music is VASTLY different from video. In video it takes more time and resources to produce each one and replays are rare.…

But if the majority of plays on Spotify are of the current hit pop songs at any given time, Spotify still has the power even if they don’t own the old songs. Go look at the most played songs on Spotify of all time. It’s not the Beatles and Michael Jackson’s back catalog. We’re talking Chainsmokers and Imagine Dragons and Ed Sheeran.

Most played in terms of number of plays, but probably far behind in terms of unique users who actively selected the song at least once?

The catalog deep dive is where streaming services offer unique value, putting a hit on repeat is what people could do just as well by buying the single/licence.

Re: Spotify files for its IPO

#205
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the same problem Netflix & Amazon have been successful in combating. The answer is to become a content owner by competing with the big labels directly. All Spotify needs to push the big labels back on their heels is to sign a few top 40 artists of their own. I might be wrong but I remember reading something like 90%+ of streams on music services are of songs currently on the charts. Capture the popular cultur…

Big difference between TV and music streaming, in a nutshell: a TV streaming library is defined by what they have, a music streaming library is defined by what is missing. Serial TV is consumed like a novel, as long as the next episode is available, the availability of everything else is unimportant. Music is consumed in a much more random access pattern, like a lexicon: if the letter M is missing, it's broken. ("You…

It may be true that music listeners are currently much more annoyed when songs aren't available. However, I think it's wrong to say that TV and movie watchers were any different 5 years ago -- even today, people's number one complaint about Netflix is that famous movie X isn't on there.

Netflix worked hard to change that model by figuring out what people liked to watch and generating high quality content in the patterns they saw. Turns out, now everyone watches whatever show Netflix puts in front of them.

Do you think it's possible a similar phenomenon could happen for music?

I can tell you that since signing up for Spotify Premium, I've certainly been exposed to more new artists that I like, based on their recommendations. Since their library is currently still extensive (like how Netflix had a lot more movies back in the day), I'm very rarely looking for a song they don't have. I can imagine a world where the content holders get more scared (although that would be an impressively delayed reaction) and thus Spotify is pressured out of contracts (just like Netflix was). I'm guessing that Spotify is betting that if that is the case, they can rely on the fact they've been changing their listeners tastes to survive.

Re: Spotify files for its IPO

#206
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I would like to see more social features that aren't tied to Facebook. I know it's not their core competency, but it's odd that the Friends feature requires FB even though they support "standard" non-FB user accounts. And a timeline-esque view of who's been listening to what at-a-glance would be neat.

No. No. No. I just want a well running, clean looking, audio player. Im sick of companies trying to make apps social and grow them beyond where they are great trying to incorporate bullshit that ruins the app. Spotify is great for local music, streaming, podcasts, etc. All this bullshit video and social crap they push into it ruins it. Imo IPOs kill almost any decency in a product

A massive reason I prefer spotify is because of the social aspect of it. Being able to look at a friends playlists is a pretty big deal for me. I would agree if they were pushing something like statuses or likes but I think Spotify's implementation of social actually makes the product much better

Re: Spotify files for its IPO

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is the same problem Netflix & Amazon have been successful in combating. The answer is to become a content owner by competing with the big labels directly. > All Spotify needs to push the big labels back on their heels is to sign a few top 40 artists of their own No way that's going to work. Music is VASTLY different from video. In video it takes more time and resources to produce each one and replays are rare.…

But if the majority of plays on Spotify are of the current hit pop songs at any given time, Spotify still has the power even if they don’t own the old songs. Go look at the most played songs on Spotify of all time. It’s not the Beatles and Michael Jackson’s back catalog. We’re talking Chainsmokers and Imagine Dragons and Ed Sheeran.

AmazonPrime’s most played list has more than a few oldies in it, especially around Christmas. The non-young crowd is also much less into new music and crave the older stuff actually. A streaming service can totally survive on those users alone, probably. If I could get it at some discount, I would totally pay for a streaming service that didn’t have any songs made within the last ten years. I could live on songs made in the 60s alone (and that’s way before my time).

Re: Spotify files for its IPO

#208
post #46

I don't think this is a good long term investment. Disclaimer: I worked for a Spotify competitor in the past, so i have a pretty solid understanding of how the business works. I think it is a bad investment for one simple reason: Spotify purchases its main product (music) from a oligopoly. I'd estimate that 95%+ of the tracks streamed (by total playtime) are from one of the 3 major music labels: Universal, Sony or Wa…

> People will switch to Apple Music, Amazon PrimeMusic, Tidal or any other service quickly. How do these other services operate in contrast?

They are not free. This is the THE reason I use Spotify over any others.

Re: Spotify files for its IPO

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the same problem Netflix & Amazon have been successful in combating. The answer is to become a content owner by competing with the big labels directly. All Spotify needs to push the big labels back on their heels is to sign a few top 40 artists of their own. I might be wrong but I remember reading something like 90%+ of streams on music services are of songs currently on the charts. Capture the popular cultur…

> This is the same problem Netflix & Amazon have been successful in combating. The answer is to become a content owner by competing with the big labels directly. > All Spotify needs to push the big labels back on their heels is to sign a few top 40 artists of their own No way that's going to work. Music is VASTLY different from video. In video it takes more time and resources to produce each one and replays are rare.…

> replays are rare

Tell that to my wife who has seen every Office episode at least 20 times.

Re: Spotify files for its IPO

#210
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Big difference between TV and music streaming, in a nutshell: a TV streaming library is defined by what they have, a music streaming library is defined by what is missing. Serial TV is consumed like a novel, as long as the next episode is available, the availability of everything else is unimportant. Music is consumed in a much more random access pattern, like a lexicon: if the letter M is missing, it's broken. ("You…

It may be true that music listeners are currently much more annoyed when songs aren't available. However, I think it's wrong to say that TV and movie watchers were any different 5 years ago -- even today, people's number one complaint about Netflix is that famous movie X isn't on there. Netflix worked hard to change that model by figuring out what people liked to watch and generating high quality content in the patte…

I doubt that a streaming provider would be able to starve out interest in third party music. Most active choice music consumption is essentially a nostalgic act, even when searching for the latest hit that you heard at that party last night. Music preference could almost be considered involuntary.

An "original content superspotify" would have to dominate all channels to ensue that customers are rarely overcome be the desire (and the resulting dissatisfaction) for third party music, or restrict themselves to the subset of the market that is never exposed to channels not under their control. Both of these options are what I would consider a likely base for economic success.

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