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Bitcoin is a Bubble

theguardian.com

11–20 of 31 posts

Re: Bitcoin is a Bubble

#11
This author is either lying or has no idea how blockchains work.

See: https://hackernoon.com/ten-years-in-nobody-has-come-up-with-...

  Blockchain will administer similar shocks to insurance, healthcare 
  and all mass payment systems.
Blockchains can do nothing useful for insurance and healthcare.

Publicly accessible databases with auditing and security mechanisms (double-entry accounting, git, and merkle trees predate bitcoin and blockchains) and a public API which will likely be branded as blockchain tech will always outpace any sort of PoW/PoS style blockchain protocol replicated database.

  Intermediaries in the service industries will face a new world in 
  which their routine functions will be performed by machines, 
  programmed by artificial intelligence, while the blockchain becomes 
  the new means to do business safely, faster and less riskily. 
This is just a poor writer grasping at buzzwords. SciFi writers at least try to paint a more detailed picture to fit their buzzwords in. Blockchains are notably irreversible, so there's an inherent risk and immense inefficiency in their use.

  the blockchain economic model is more efficient and more effective 
  the larger the network.
This is absolutely false.

Blockchains are insanely inefficient as a design feature attempting to prevent a single group from having write access to the database. As the network grows larger and more computing power is added, the effectiveness and efficiency goes down and transaction throughput remains the same (blocksize bandwidth usually has a hard limit, in rare cases blocksize can be variable and grow but this is unaffected by addition of computational work added to the network, granted the blocktime/hashrate consistency readjustment stabilizes)

Re: Bitcoin is a Bubble

#12
post #6

Bitcoin is going to grow to 50.000 - 100.000 USD within the next year: * The limit of coins will increase the value of each individual coin (deflation), while the USD's value will still inflate. For miners this doesn't have to be a problem in the long term, since money can still be earned on processing transactions. * The problems with high transaction fees and slow transaction times will hopefully be solved with the…

What you should know about Cryptocurrency advocates is they're likely trying to SELL you on the need to buy into their scheme because they want to pass off their cyberbeaniebaby for more than it cost to produce it. Most of the cryptocurrencys started as an intentionally malicious form of a ponzi scheme (best to call it a Satoshi scheme).

Most of the supply is produced early on so you need to psychologically exploit new users into thinking the supply is rare (only the production of new coins becomes less frequent). Because the cryptocoin exchanges are unregulated, traders easily use tactics like wash trading and painting the tape to push the spot price up higher and higher. The game is ultimately to sell for a high fiat price to the uninformed bagholders who are late to the party and don't understand the system.

Perhaps there may be a form of ecash in the future that doesn't use an exploitative economic model of supply production, but for now be warned. (assuming a less manipulative supply production curve is implemented, PoW style mining still only transfers capital in proportion as computational work into the new system)

See also the false equivalency to gold:

If you understand the computer science behind Bitcoin, you'll realize how ridiculous the false equivalency to gold is.

1. The claim of "rare" doesn't exactly hold true.

Consider the 10,000 BTC pizza - how did this happen? This was the direct result of Satoshi's economic policy, granting vast sums of BTC to mint out very quickly very early for a short duration to the very small pool of people who ran the software. Satoshi's algorithm produced BTC in plentiful quantities enabling the 10,000BTC pizza - thus it wasn't rare if you were Satoshi and the dozen other early whales hording as much as possible, until the algorithm begins cutting off the production and limiting later users from producing coins, starving the economy. Now there's a psychological game being played, where public relations and marketing must convince new users to buy in. Because the exchanges are unregulated, they can manipulate the spot price though wash trading and painting the tape [2] (where trades are falsified and you just sell the same item back and forth to your friend for a higher and higher price).

The supply was created by running a piece of software. It's not magic. Most of the supply was produced very early on and as much as 30% of all Bitcoins are owned by less than 100 people.

  Best estimates are that there are about one million 
  holders of Bitcoin;  47 individuals hold about 30 percent, 
  another 900 hold a further 20 percent, the next 10,000 
  about 25% and another million about 20%, with 5% being 
  lost.  So 1/10th of one percent represent about half the 
  holdings of Bitcoin and 1 percent close to 80 percent 
  (http://www.businessinsider.com/927-people-own-half-
  of-the-bitcoins-2013-12). The concentration of Litecoin 
  ownership is similar 
  (http://litecoin-rich-list.blogspot.com).  
  Most of the big wallets have been in place from early on, 
  so sitting back and watching your capital grow has been a 
  very successful strategy.


  The distribution of Bitcoin holdings  looks much like the 
  distribution of wealth in North Korea and makes the 
  China’s and even the US’ wealth distribution look like 
  that of a workers’ paradise
2. Easy migration to more advanced e-cash services, LTC, XMR, ETH, so on See: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/views/all/

3. Bitcoin network requires ASIC miners, largely centralized in China [3]. Assuming the inveitable surpassing of a more advanced cryptosytem making Bitcoin obsolete, as the market is informed there will be a decline in BTC's spot price and once this falls below the cost of OPEX for miners, the hardware goes offline and the network will cease to function. Maximalists will attempt to offer an emergency fork, in any attempt to save their "investment", just as they have developed the lightening network to create centeralized payment hubs, so "investors" can act as liquidity providors and take fees, instead of miners.

4. Electricty usage is unsustainable, GOTO 3

[1] https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/86/is-it-possibl...

http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-inequality-2014-1

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6r04gfWfRkE

[3] https://qz.com/1055126/photos-china-has-one-of-worlds-larges...

Re: Bitcoin is a Bubble

#13
post #8
post #6

Bitcoin is going to grow to 50.000 - 100.000 USD within the next year: * The limit of coins will increase the value of each individual coin (deflation), while the USD's value will still inflate. For miners this doesn't have to be a problem in the long term, since money can still be earned on processing transactions. * The problems with high transaction fees and slow transaction times will hopefully be solved with the…

- If LN is very popular and successful won't it decrease miners profit to dangerously low levels? - How does Omise GO provide the most important bank feature: borrowing money? After all that is the main source of bank's income & impact on economy.

- I think if digital currencies become more popular and more usable for smaller transactions, then it could possibly offset the loss of not being able to mine new coins in the future.

- I think lending out money will still be an important function of a bank, but it would already be awesome if we don't need a bank account anymore to do transactions over the internet or even in shops. Or if we can send money to each other without requiring our counter party to have a bank account.

Re: Bitcoin is a Bubble

#14

Bitcoin is going to drop to $300-600 within the next year: * There are only a limited number of coins out there so people are going to stop mining for them as he near that limit. You can see that now with fewer people buying ASIC and similar FPGA modules. * The transaction fees are getting be as great as the cost of a pizza transaction * Lost coins - There are millions of wallets out there with people exploring BitCo…

I don't understand why people still do this type of "X will die" predictions. You have nothing to gain by making these predictions, just like how everyone who predicted the fall of the Internet are now laughed upon. Furthermore, even if Bitcoin DOES go down, it's not like you'll be applauded for being an 'oracle' just because you predicted this either. Pretty much everyone who's risk-averse or doesn't understand the…

Hah, nice comment recycling :) ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16028809 )

Re: Bitcoin is a Bubble

#16

Bitcoin is going to drop to $300-600 within the next year: * There are only a limited number of coins out there so people are going to stop mining for them as he near that limit. You can see that now with fewer people buying ASIC and similar FPGA modules. * The transaction fees are getting be as great as the cost of a pizza transaction * Lost coins - There are millions of wallets out there with people exploring BitCo…

> There are only a limited number of coins out there so people are going to stop mining for them as he near that limit. You can see that now with fewer people buying ASIC and similar FPGA modules.

This is true, but the effect should tend to push the price up, not down. The new coins paid to miners are essentially a "tax" on everyone else.

> The transaction fees are getting be as great as the cost of a pizza transaction

If fees are high, it means demand for transactions is high as well. High fees are evidence that people want to use Bitcoin.

> Lost coins - There are millions of wallets out there with people exploring BitCoin that has just been lost.

I don't know about "millions," but it certainly happens. When coins are lost, it increases the scarcity of Bitcoin, which would tend to make the price go up.

Re: Bitcoin is a Bubble

#17
Whether or not the economics are right, this author doesn’t understand the technology:

> To explain: essentially, “blocks” are segregated, vast bundles of data in permanent communication with each other so that each block knows what the content is in the rest of the chain. However, only the owner of a particular block has the digital key to access it.

I know journalists need to simplify the technology, but those simplifications should basically be correct. This is just... wrong.

Re: Bitcoin is a Bubble

#18

Bitcoin is going to drop to $300-600 within the next year: * There are only a limited number of coins out there so people are going to stop mining for them as he near that limit. You can see that now with fewer people buying ASIC and similar FPGA modules. * The transaction fees are getting be as great as the cost of a pizza transaction * Lost coins - There are millions of wallets out there with people exploring BitCo…

> There are only a limited number of coins out there

Very true for BTC, but there an unlimited number of new cryptocurrencies (either competitors to BTC or ICOs). This is the inflation risk.

Re: Bitcoin is a Bubble

#19
post #17

Whether or not the economics are right, this author doesn’t understand the technology: > To explain: essentially, “blocks” are segregated, vast bundles of data in permanent communication with each other so that each block knows what the content is in the rest of the chain. However, only the owner of a particular block has the digital key to access it. I know journalists need to simplify the technology, but those simp…

I wonder how many journalists don't understand what they are talking about and we think they do. I stopped reading the local paper after a tech article in my field was so wrong that I doubt other articles in fields I don't know anything about are factually correct.

Re: Bitcoin is a Bubble

#20

Bitcoin is going to drop to $300-600 within the next year: * There are only a limited number of coins out there so people are going to stop mining for them as he near that limit. You can see that now with fewer people buying ASIC and similar FPGA modules. * The transaction fees are getting be as great as the cost of a pizza transaction * Lost coins - There are millions of wallets out there with people exploring BitCo…

Many of your points contradict each other.

* Transaction fees go to the miners so high transaction fees mean more miners. There have been a few blocks now where the total transaction fees are larger than the built-in block reward.

* High transaction fees are an issue but they are also directly tied to price & usage. If bitcoin price/usage drops then transaction fees will drop. High transaction fees also make spamming useless/small transactions as part of a DOS quite expensive.

* Lost coins increase the price due to decreased supply.

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