Everything is a bubble:
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/editorial/infographic-the-ev...
This whole thing will come down to how the Quantitive Easing winds up:
http://www.livemint.com/Money/hyDe0jAEnml43F1kd2FzhJ/Feds-Gr...
Ask HN: Are we still in a tech bubble?
11–18 of 18 posts
Re: Ask HN: Are we still in a tech bubble?
#12We're in a VC bubble. Tons of ideas are getting funded that have virtually no likelihood of producing any return.
I would guess that this bubble will fizzle rather than pop. When the pop begins, the VCs themselves will rather abruptly find it difficult to raise money for their next funds.
This will make it far more difficult for startups to raise or re-raise, but there won't be a sudden mass extinction. We'll see many fewer getting off the ground; and those that have already raised seed or series A will for the most part spend out their runway and then die quietly.
Unlike in the first dot-com bubble, nearly all startups in this wave have customers other than other startups, so we'll see some companies struggle but less of a domino effect.
Re: Ask HN: Are we still in a tech bubble?
#13We're in a VC bubble. Tons of ideas are getting funded that have virtually no likelihood of producing any return. I would guess that this bubble will fizzle rather than pop. When the pop begins, the VCs themselves will rather abruptly find it difficult to raise money for their next funds. This will make it far more difficult for startups to raise or re-raise, but there won't be a sudden mass extinction. We'll see man…
My go-to example for this is Yik Yak, which raised >$70 million before introducing features that drove their users away. I don't understand how that much money could be justified given the feature set of the app, though I'm inevitably underestimating the cost of scaling.
Re: Ask HN: Are we still in a tech bubble?
#14The global financial system is in the midst of an everything bubble , and so in comparison to everything else, the tech bubble looks less significant than a year ago. The current regime wont last long if US inflation picks up in 2018, which is likely but not certain.
How does everything go into a bubble? The cash or production of wealth has to come from somewhere.
Re: Ask HN: Are we still in a tech bubble?
#15I think the bubbles have moved to blockchain, AI, and big data. Apps and dot com have solved many of the low hanging problems, but there are plenty more to solve or improve on.
Interestingly, people are solving these problems in the form of "side projects". Perhaps this means that the remaining problems don't work with the 'unicorn' VC model, but can make some solo founder a millionaire on their own.
Re: Ask HN: Are we still in a tech bubble?
#16We're in a VC bubble. Tons of ideas are getting funded that have virtually no likelihood of producing any return. I would guess that this bubble will fizzle rather than pop. When the pop begins, the VCs themselves will rather abruptly find it difficult to raise money for their next funds. This will make it far more difficult for startups to raise or re-raise, but there won't be a sudden mass extinction. We'll see man…
My go-to example for this is Yik Yak, which raised >$70 million before introducing features that drove their users away. I don't understand how that much money could be justified given the feature set of the app, though I'm inevitably underestimating the cost of scaling.
They had something good while it lasted. On college campuses, it essentially functioned as an open chatroom for large classes. Of course, most of the fun was at the expense of the professor. That and random trolling.
Re: Ask HN: Are we still in a tech bubble?
#17The global financial system is in the midst of an everything bubble , and so in comparison to everything else, the tech bubble looks less significant than a year ago. The current regime wont last long if US inflation picks up in 2018, which is likely but not certain.
How does everything go into a bubble? The cash or production of wealth has to come from somewhere.
Quantitative easing is 1 source.
Re: Ask HN: Are we still in a tech bubble?
#18We're in a VC bubble. Tons of ideas are getting funded that have virtually no likelihood of producing any return. I would guess that this bubble will fizzle rather than pop. When the pop begins, the VCs themselves will rather abruptly find it difficult to raise money for their next funds. This will make it far more difficult for startups to raise or re-raise, but there won't be a sudden mass extinction. We'll see man…
My go-to example for this is Yik Yak, which raised >$70 million before introducing features that drove their users away. I don't understand how that much money could be justified given the feature set of the app, though I'm inevitably underestimating the cost of scaling.
Being connected to every college campus in America with minimal friction? Yeah that's worth $70 million.