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Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

reuters.com

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Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#281

Post by isostatic »

andy_ppp wrote: post #108
ghaff wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>And as far as airport congestion goes, building new airports is far easier than new rail lines. Might tell Berlin that :-) It may be true in general if there's undeveloped space within an hour or so drive of a major city center but major airport construction, at least in Western countries, usually hasn't gone smoothly.

Wow, there is so much space around Berlin I don’t even know where to start with this, there’s even an airstrip in town still. I know it’s a park now but seriously of all the major cities I’ve lived in building a new airport should be relatively easy... unless it’s a conscious decision to prefer the train? Tegel is horrible but it’s also really quick - you can and I have arrived 30mins before a flight and make it just…

Tegal's great. Seatbeltnoff to Brandenburg gate in 30 minutes. Taxi to plane in under 5.

Manchester t3 isn't too bad - I've left a taxi with 15 minutes before take off on a couple of occasions with no problems.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#282

Post by adrianratnapala »

rconti wrote: post #177
mdasen wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Boeing made a bet on the 787. However, as you note, that's an easier bet to make when you already have the 747. Boeing already had a jumbo. It's easy to make a bet on twin-engines getting certified for longer ocean crossings when you already have the 747. There's a lot of things that Boeing bet on with the 787 and you're totally right that it's way easier to make those bets when you already have the 747. However, the…

Emirates has to use the hub and spoke model because their home country is so small.

There is also set of markets that are just always going to use it.

I live in Australia, so when I go to Europe, it is always via at least one hub airport. Often Dubai. Same story if I go to the east coast US.

Even if this model is becoming less important, airlines like Emirates and SIA will be in a good position to dominate what is left of it.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#283

Post by mpweiher »

mdasen wrote: post #240
mpweiher wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Excellent points, and I agree that the switch in the market certainly was a large component, and probably the larger component. I still think that Airbus simply could not not do the A380, just as a defensive move and hedge, and that it may have served a commercial purpose even if it didn't manage to be profitable on its own. > constrained slots [..] certainly money [..] Are slots primarily a money problem? My underst…

Non-availability is what makes them expensive. It's kind of two sides of the same coin. If the slots were widely available, they wouldn't be a valuable asset. They are a valuable asset only because they aren't available. The point of looking at the monetary value is that it's a way to quantify how unavailable they are. Land costs money. Where land is scarce, it becomes expensive. Where land is abundant, it's cheap. I…

Yes, I think Airbus probably had to do a 747 competitor. Did it have to be larger? Dunno. My guess is that it didn’t make much sense to make it the same size or slightly smaller, as shown by the A340, and they already had a 787-size twin, the A330.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#284

Post by adrianratnapala »

markonen wrote: post #244
nimish wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The first three are from countries where Eads doing well is a political thing: Britain Germany and France own chunks of airbus and have a lot invested in it doing well. The former flag carriers are only nominally independent from the state.

Tell me more about this nominal independence. The biggest state owner of IAG (BA’s corporate parent) is Qatar. Lufthansa is fully privatized. France owns ~15% of Air France-KLM.

There are more connections than ownership.

For example, an airline might get preferred access to airport berths. Governments, and officials of privatised government entities serve to organise and stabilise this sort of cartel.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#285

Post by isostatic »

namdnay wrote: post #41
TremendousJudge wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The business seats on a plane make more money than the economy seats. However, there aren't lines where you can fill a whole plane of business: economy is there mostly to fill up space

There are some, but they're very rare. One example is the BA shuttle between London City and New York - only business. I believe there is a French airline doing a "cheap business" Paris-New York as well.

Qatar operate a small business only A319 from Doha to London once a day, or did when I took it two years ago. I preferred the a350 and 787 flights which are 1-2-1 rather than 2-2, but for a 7 hour day flight it wasnt too bad. It was half empty though, not a great use of a Heathrow slot.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#286

Post by isostatic »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #77
namdnay wrote: post #2

I fly Emirates A380 from time to time, I have to say the business class is better than the first class of most carriers. Very quiet, masses of space, and the bar is not bad at all when you want to stretch your legs. And when you get bumped up to first... having a shower on a flight is very nice :) The only problem is the godawful stopover in Dubai - If there is one advantage that the non-gulf carriers have, it's that…

> The only problem is the godawful stopover in Dubai This is why the A380 has been a failure. It is only economical when it is full. Airlines must cram demand into a few routes, e.g. London --> Dubai, to ensure they fill their planes. That's fine if you're flying from London to Dubai. But if you're flying to Asia, a competing flight going directly to your destination is preferable. That route has too little demand to…

With the time difference I prefer two 8ish hour trips from Manchester to singapore than a 1 hour flight to London and 14 to singapore. I find the stopover in the Middle East really helps with the time difference

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#287

Post by sologoub »

From consumer standpoint, A380 is by far my favorite for cross-Atlantic flights. A340 would be a distant second.

777s layout fits more people then A340 (superior for airline), but 3/4/3 seating just plain sucks for passengers compared to 2/4/2 for A340. More leg room too.

A340 having toilets below deck is also great - fewer smells in the cabin. Sadly, getting a A340 is like lottery and A380 is only operated in a few routes.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#288

Post by AnimalMuppet »

valuearb wrote: post #219
mpweiher wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It has been obscenely profitable over its lifetime Exactly. And these obscene profits in a line where it had no competition were a problem for Airbus. A problem that has now disappeared. > The A380 first flew in 2005 [2]. It has been a commercial disaster. (a) It helped kill the "obscenely profitable" 747. (b) It was a hedge in case airlines were going to stick with the hub-and-spoke model (c) Slot constraints may…

The 747 was a problem that was disappearing on it's own. When the A380 was approved, the 747 was no longer obscenely profitable, it was already facing lower demand and the requirements for an expensive update. Airbus crippled itself trying to eliminate it with the A380, they blew a huge amount of capital they'll never get back. The hub and spoke model is dead and won't be coming back. New slots can be easily created…

> New slots can be easily created by adding runways or building new airports.

I wouldn't call that "easy". How many new runways are going to be built next year? How many new airports? I'll make a guess that the answers are "none" and "very few or none".

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#289

Post by throwawayVxY »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #54
mpweiher wrote: post #33

I think coverage of the A380 often misses the point that at the time, Boeing's 747 simply had no competition, whereas all of Airbus's planes did. So Airbus pretty much had to create the A380 in order to protect its other lines from cross-subsidy by this unopposed cash-cow. And, also missing from almost all the coverage is the fact that this worked: if the A380 is struggling, the 747 is moribund or dead. Official back…

> if the A380 is struggling, the 747 is moribund or dead Boeing has built and sold over 1,500 747s [1]. It first flew in 1969 and is now being end of lifed. It has been obscenely profitable over its lifetime. The A380 first flew in 2005 [2]. It has been a commercial disaster. The 747 was a great plane for 1969. Airbus built the finest horse-drawn carriage just as the Model T came out. > constrained slots at major air…

Off topic: any chance you'd be willing to discuss your transition from algo trading to what you're doing now (per your profile)? As an ex- algo trader and pilot, I'd love to get your perspective.

Posting this from a throwaway because my colleagues read HN, but the email in my profile is valid. Thanks!

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#290

Post by selectodude »

majormajor wrote: post #185
louithethrid wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lobbyism is what saved the american car industry.

The American car industry is safe in the US market as long as nobody outside the US figures out how to compete with the F150. Even if it had to eventually ditch everything but the trucks, the cash cow shows no signs of dying anytime soon. Make them aluminum, carbon fiber, electric, turbo, whatever - it's the form factor that sells.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_tax

Foreign automakers can't sell trucks in the US.

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