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Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

reuters.com

81–90 of 355 posts

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#82
post #3

Can't help but think that this vindicates Boeing's bet on the smaller 787.

I think that was obvious from at least 10 years ago. Airbus’s bet at the time raised a lot of eye brows, while boeing’s didn’t. The only thing Boeing screwed up on was outsourcing too much of the assembly.

> The only thing Boeing screwed up on was outsourcing too much of the assembly

Selling planes is complicated. For the same reason the F-35 sources random things from practically everywhere [1], Boeing may have found it advantageous to have suppliers in the countries of national airline purchasers.

[1] https://www.f35.com/about/economic-impact-map#nevada

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if the A380 is struggling, the 747 is moribund or dead Boeing has built and sold over 1,500 747s [1]. It first flew in 1969 and is now being end of lifed. It has been obscenely profitable over its lifetime. The A380 first flew in 2005 [2]. It has been a commercial disaster. The 747 was a great plane for 1969. Airbus built the finest horse-drawn carriage just as the Model T came out. > constrained slots at major air…

> It has been obscenely profitable over its lifetime Exactly. And these obscene profits in a line where it had no competition were a problem for Airbus. A problem that has now disappeared. > The A380 first flew in 2005 [2]. It has been a commercial disaster. (a) It helped kill the "obscenely profitable" 747. (b) It was a hedge in case airlines were going to stick with the hub-and-spoke model (c) Slot constraints may…

Um, the 787 is what kiled the 747. As in Boeing decided, as all companies do, to retire a line in favor of a more modern one. It’s really weird you don’t acknowledge that at all.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#84

I think coverage of the A380 often misses the point that at the time, Boeing's 747 simply had no competition, whereas all of Airbus's planes did. So Airbus pretty much had to create the A380 in order to protect its other lines from cross-subsidy by this unopposed cash-cow. And, also missing from almost all the coverage is the fact that this worked: if the A380 is struggling, the 747 is moribund or dead. Official back…

Boeing played it better because they did not re-invest heavily in the 747, and let it die. It’s not a question of competition. If all of the remaining 747 orders switch to the A380, its still a failure. And as far as airport congestion goes, building new airports is far easier than new rail lines.

>And as far as airport congestion goes, building new airports is far easier than new rail lines.

Might tell Berlin that :-)

It may be true in general if there's undeveloped space within an hour or so drive of a major city center but major airport construction, at least in Western countries, usually hasn't gone smoothly.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#85
777x is probably the future of this segment. Larger planes simply cannot scale because they already have to have short wings to fit in airports. Folding wings (like the 777x) can address this.

Longer, higher aspect ratio wings are one powerful way to continue the march to higher efficiency. Eventually, I think this will allow electrification of most air travel.

And I do think that supersonic air travel will make a strong comeback. There are technology advances making the energy costs lower and the noise quieter. We're also becoming richer as a species. So I think this will bite into the first/business-class trans-oceanic market segment that the Jumbos previously operated in.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#87
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are some, but they're very rare. One example is the BA shuttle between London City and New York - only business. I believe there is a French airline doing a "cheap business" Paris-New York as well.

Also the new Boom supersonic jet is intended to be all business class seats (around 60, IIRC).

I'm not holding my breath for any of these supersonic jet projects to come to market. But, if they do, I expect the nominally "business" or "first" class seating will be more like domestic business today than typical international business class--as was the case with the Concorde.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#90
I may be dumb but I don't understand the numbers in the article. They write Airbus has "96 unfilled orders" then say that "47 of those are unlikely to be delivered". So they won't be ordered or won't be delivered? If it's the latter then won't it be breach of contract on Airbus side and just kinda plain stupid? And if it's the former that doesn't it contradict previous number of 96 units ordered?

Next they say "deliver the remaining 41 it has on order" - where did this number come from if they have 96 on order? Or if we believe paragraph about 47 not delivered, then 96-47=49, not 41.

And the last whether it is 96, 49 or 41 - it is more than "Airbus needs to sell at least another 30".

And regarding "To bridge the gap, Airbus plans to cut output to six a year beyond 2019, from 12 in 2018 and 8 in 2019, even if it means producing at a loss, Reuters recently reported." - 12+8+(8years*6units)=68 units over next 10 years (and way more than "at least another 30") - how does this correlate with any other number in the article?

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