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Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

reuters.com

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Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#51

Post by jdietrich »

code4tee wrote: post #6

Boeing played the market correctly here. When everyone was oohing over the A380 Boeing said super jumbos were on their way out and focused on the 787. If it hadn’t been for Emirates buying so many A380s to begin with it would have been a flop from the start (Emirates alone operates almost half of the A380s ever built). The future in long haul is mid-size highly efficient twin engine jets and here Airbus is scrambling…

There was a shift in the aviation market that wasn't entirely straightforward to predict. Airbus bet that the market would continue with a hub-and-spoke model, with lots of regional jets providing connections to hub airports. Boeing bet that the market would shift towards point-to-point service, with direct flights between second-tier airports facilitated by mid-size jets with extended range.

Boeing clearly made the right call, but there's an element of hindsight at play. Emirates, Etihad and Singapore have been very successful as pure hub-and-spoke airlines and there's still a vast amount of traffic going through the major hub airports.

The lead time on new aircraft designs is immense - the A3XX project started in 1994 and took the first orders in 2000. Airbus made some strategic blunders and didn't respond quickly enough to market conditions, but in some respects they were just unlucky. Boeing's 747X project failed and they have struggled with sales for the 747-8, but they avoided heavy losses by re-using old IP rather than launching a completely new platform. Both manufacturers were caught off-guard by the events of 2008.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#52

Post by digi_owl »

Xixi wrote: post #18
brndnmtthws wrote: post #5

When it comes to airplanes, bigger isn't necessarily better. I guess the novelty value has worn off and giant jets like this have limited appeal. If there was a significant cost saving (there isn't) then of course it would make sense, but due to the limited number of airports that can service these planes and the high cost, I don't see much future in them. The efficiency just isn't there.

The success of the 747 was wrongly analyzed by Airbus: it was not successful because it was big, it was successful because it could fly further than anything else. It is however because it was big that it could fly far: if I remember correctly the fuel needed to fly grows with the surface of the plane (in 2 dimensions), while the fuel that can be hauled grows with its volume (in 3 dimensions). The 777 had already mad…

Yeah my understanding is that the 747 was a success because it could cross the major oceans in a single go, something smaller twin engines could not do at the time. This while providing a price pr seat that most people could accept.

Now we have twin engines that can at least do the Atlantic trip just as well, allowing all manner of smaller airlines to offer trips from a multitude of airports.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#53

Post by mpweiher »

namdnay wrote: post #41
TremendousJudge wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The business seats on a plane make more money than the economy seats. However, there aren't lines where you can fill a whole plane of business: economy is there mostly to fill up space

There are some, but they're very rare. One example is the BA shuttle between London City and New York - only business. I believe there is a French airline doing a "cheap business" Paris-New York as well.

Also the new Boom supersonic jet is intended to be all business class seats (around 60, IIRC).

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#54

Post by JumpCrisscross »

mpweiher wrote: post #33

I think coverage of the A380 often misses the point that at the time, Boeing's 747 simply had no competition, whereas all of Airbus's planes did. So Airbus pretty much had to create the A380 in order to protect its other lines from cross-subsidy by this unopposed cash-cow. And, also missing from almost all the coverage is the fact that this worked: if the A380 is struggling, the 747 is moribund or dead. Official back…

> if the A380 is struggling, the 747 is moribund or dead

Boeing has built and sold over 1,500 747s [1]. It first flew in 1969 and is now being end of lifed. It has been obscenely profitable over its lifetime. The A380 first flew in 2005 [2]. It has been a commercial disaster.

The 747 was a great plane for 1969. Airbus built the finest horse-drawn carriage just as the Model T came out.

> constrained slots at major airports serving the major routes

Between 30 and 40% of passengers departing from JFK or Newark will go on to a connection [3]. Consider what happens when they start flying directly to their destinations.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_747

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A380

[3] https://www.panynj.gov/airports/pdf-traffic/ATR_2015.pdf

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#55

Post by joezydeco »

mpweiher wrote: post #33

I think coverage of the A380 often misses the point that at the time, Boeing's 747 simply had no competition, whereas all of Airbus's planes did. So Airbus pretty much had to create the A380 in order to protect its other lines from cross-subsidy by this unopposed cash-cow. And, also missing from almost all the coverage is the fact that this worked: if the A380 is struggling, the 747 is moribund or dead. Official back…

if the A380 is struggling, the 747 is moribund or dead

Two American carriers (United and Delta) already knew this. They discontinued the 747 and their last flights were earlier this year.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/todayinthesky/...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/todayinthesky/...

The A320s and 777s (and soon A350s) are just more efficient for passenger ETOPS flights. Hell, United will probably even fly 737MAXs on Atlantic routes like they did with 757-ERs.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#56

Post by jmnicolas »

stergios wrote: post #20

Boeing most likely has already delivered the last passenger 747 ever to be built [1]. Cargo demand will keep the line alive, but at greatly reduced numbers, which in total have been 1536 units since it's commercial introduction in 1970 [2]. IMHO, the A380 was not created to meet market demand, but instead was conceived to meet the national interests of England and France's own military industrial complex, and in that…

The A380 is used as a military plane ?

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#57

Post by dekhn »

mpweiher wrote: post #33

I think coverage of the A380 often misses the point that at the time, Boeing's 747 simply had no competition, whereas all of Airbus's planes did. So Airbus pretty much had to create the A380 in order to protect its other lines from cross-subsidy by this unopposed cash-cow. And, also missing from almost all the coverage is the fact that this worked: if the A380 is struggling, the 747 is moribund or dead. Official back…

The 747 is dead, but it had a great life. The whole project was one of Boeing's most successful (quick development time).

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#58

Post by _Codemonkeyism »

The A380 is too early and fell in a hole created by powerful and efficient new engines. This created the possibility for long point to point destinations.

With growing air traffic congestion at airports will increase again and the need for larger planes will increase also.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#59

Post by raverbashing »

code4tee wrote: post #6

Boeing played the market correctly here. When everyone was oohing over the A380 Boeing said super jumbos were on their way out and focused on the 787. If it hadn’t been for Emirates buying so many A380s to begin with it would have been a flop from the start (Emirates alone operates almost half of the A380s ever built). The future in long haul is mid-size highly efficient twin engine jets and here Airbus is scrambling…

Boeing did put some money on the 747-800 it's not like they ignored that part of the market

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#60

Post by _Codemonkeyism »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #54
mpweiher wrote: post #33

I think coverage of the A380 often misses the point that at the time, Boeing's 747 simply had no competition, whereas all of Airbus's planes did. So Airbus pretty much had to create the A380 in order to protect its other lines from cross-subsidy by this unopposed cash-cow. And, also missing from almost all the coverage is the fact that this worked: if the A380 is struggling, the 747 is moribund or dead. Official back…

> if the A380 is struggling, the 747 is moribund or dead Boeing has built and sold over 1,500 747s [1]. It first flew in 1969 and is now being end of lifed. It has been obscenely profitable over its lifetime. The A380 first flew in 2005 [2]. It has been a commercial disaster. The 747 was a great plane for 1969. Airbus built the finest horse-drawn carriage just as the Model T came out. > constrained slots at major air…

I would be interested on how your comment fits your quote.
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