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We’re Going to Need More Lithium

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Re: We’re Going to Need More Lithium

#61
> The next dozen years will drain less than 1 percent of the reserves in the ground

That's actually an extremely large portion for such a short length of time (this is the entire planet we are talking about). That projection doesn't paint a very sustainable future compared to oil (yes I hate oil), I hope it's efficiently recycled or replaced with better tech.

Re: We’re Going to Need More Lithium

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It clearly worked as there are several questions here about where to invest, we are easily manipulated aren't we.

I invested a year ago and it is a interesting resource. As all car companies need Lithium. Renewable energy is also in the same ballpark

Well made ads are actually selling to people that would want to buy, not just any target that could buy, so it makes sense.

Re: We’re Going to Need More Lithium

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At 0.76% management fee and an average return over 5 years of 8.09%, you're better off just investing in an index ETF. Their own comparison shows the index matching or beating the Lithium ETF in every metric. * LIT since inception: 38.48% * Index over same period: 45.82% You also have zero diversification with a resource ETF. If you really want to buy into only Lithium then I won't try to talk you out of it. But mayb…

You’re assuming OP wants to invest all of his money in Lithuum. And that past performance remains the same

He's also assuming that ETF is going to perform the same way in the future, when the whole point of TFA is that lithium demand is about to surge.

Re: We’re Going to Need More Lithium

#64
post #61

> The next dozen years will drain less than 1 percent of the reserves in the ground That's actually an extremely large portion for such a short length of time (this is the entire planet we are talking about). That projection doesn't paint a very sustainable future compared to oil (yes I hate oil), I hope it's efficiently recycled or replaced with better tech.

Assuming lithium reserves work anything like oil reserves, the quantity of reserves depends on market process. When oil sells for $20/bb, oil that costs more than that to extract doesn't count towards the reserves. As the price goes up, the reserves increase, because you can extract oil from more challenging circumstances. This is why we've had 20-30 years of oil reserves for the last 50 years.

Re: We’re Going to Need More Lithium

#65
post #27

This may be a silly question, but can't the lithium be recharged and reused? Or it's discarded and useless after a battery is tossed? Why mine more?

There's a growing grass roots DIY Powerwall movement, where people are recycling lithium batteries from laptops etc and turning them into huge battery packs for their homes: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/the-diy-hobbyis...

Re: We’re Going to Need More Lithium

#66
post #33

Sounds like these companies are good investment opportunities? No?

Doesn't the efficient market theory ensure that any outsized future returns are already reflected in the price?

an efficient market is a model that assumes the same information is available for all players, so don't put too much weight on it. it's an approximation that's sometimes useful.

Re: We’re Going to Need More Lithium

#67
post #61

> The next dozen years will drain less than 1 percent of the reserves in the ground That's actually an extremely large portion for such a short length of time (this is the entire planet we are talking about). That projection doesn't paint a very sustainable future compared to oil (yes I hate oil), I hope it's efficiently recycled or replaced with better tech.

Is any lithium actually lost in the lifecycle of battery? It’s not like oil that we burn and it’s gone.

Re: We’re Going to Need More Lithium

#68
post #61

> The next dozen years will drain less than 1 percent of the reserves in the ground That's actually an extremely large portion for such a short length of time (this is the entire planet we are talking about). That projection doesn't paint a very sustainable future compared to oil (yes I hate oil), I hope it's efficiently recycled or replaced with better tech.

Assuming lithium reserves work anything like oil reserves, the quantity of reserves depends on market process. When oil sells for $20/bb, oil that costs more than that to extract doesn't count towards the reserves. As the price goes up, the reserves increase, because you can extract oil from more challenging circumstances. This is why we've had 20-30 years of oil reserves for the last 50 years.

Oil alarmism existed as early as 1919: http://papers.sae.org/190011/

Re: We’re Going to Need More Lithium

#70
post #67
post #61

> The next dozen years will drain less than 1 percent of the reserves in the ground That's actually an extremely large portion for such a short length of time (this is the entire planet we are talking about). That projection doesn't paint a very sustainable future compared to oil (yes I hate oil), I hope it's efficiently recycled or replaced with better tech.

Is any lithium actually lost in the lifecycle of battery? It’s not like oil that we burn and it’s gone.

True but it depends how expensive it is to recycle, a question o haven’t seen a clear answer to.

I mean, technically, oil can be recycled too! Just cut some trees (I.e. sequester CO2) and make syngas.

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