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A Dark Room: From Sabbatical Year to $800k

failory.com

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Re: A Dark Room: From Sabbatical Year to $800k

#31

Post by sarreph »

justinpombrio wrote: post #12
evmar wrote: post #4

"If we spend a second thinking about this, if 9 out of 10 startups fail, then we only need to roll the dice 10 times and the last startup will (by statistics) achieve success." That is not how statistics works. : With a 90% failure rate, your chance of failing 10 times in a row is (9/10)^10 ~= 35%.

They're also not independent trials. If you just failed 9 times in a row, you're probably not the best at startups.

My thoughts exactly — thanks for writing this.

Helps to explain how there are so many 'anomalous' serial-entrepreneurs :)

Re: A Dark Room: From Sabbatical Year to $800k

#32

Post by castle-bravo »

ghostbrainalpha wrote: post #11

The math on this makes no sense at all. > - Live off of $15k a year. Don't buy a house. Don't buy a fancy car. Just save. - Do this for a year. - Land a job that makes you $100k a year. Save the rest. Max out your 401k contribution. - Celebrate by living off of $30k a year. - Do this for three years. - Land a job that makes you $140k a year. Save the rest. Max out your 401k contribution. Get a Roth, put $5k a year in…

Yeah it doesn't make any sense at all.

He grossed over 800k on a video game, loves programming, but after another three years he has to go back to his day job? It sounds like he's burning over 100k/year and lying about his expenses in this report. In any case, there's a lot of information left out.

Re: A Dark Room: From Sabbatical Year to $800k

#33

Post by hateduser2 »

mkagenius wrote: post #28
evmar wrote: post #4

"If we spend a second thinking about this, if 9 out of 10 startups fail, then we only need to roll the dice 10 times and the last startup will (by statistics) achieve success." That is not how statistics works. : With a 90% failure rate, your chance of failing 10 times in a row is (9/10)^10 ~= 35%.

Then according to stats it would take infinite attempts to succeed. That's not how life works ;) edit: a clarification, that's not how a single human's life works. It will work if you take all humans together into account. If you apply that logic to individuals individually then nobody succeeds ever. edit2: a single human life individually doesn't get enough attempts to be statistically significant enough.

The other side says that there’s a 75% chance of not failing ten times in a row. What this says is that it probably doesn’t just happen when it’s a sure thing.

Re: A Dark Room: From Sabbatical Year to $800k

#34

Post by jdblair »

mkagenius wrote: post #28
evmar wrote: post #4

"If we spend a second thinking about this, if 9 out of 10 startups fail, then we only need to roll the dice 10 times and the last startup will (by statistics) achieve success." That is not how statistics works. : With a 90% failure rate, your chance of failing 10 times in a row is (9/10)^10 ~= 35%.

Then according to stats it would take infinite attempts to succeed. That's not how life works ;) edit: a clarification, that's not how a single human's life works. It will work if you take all humans together into account. If you apply that logic to individuals individually then nobody succeeds ever. edit2: a single human life individually doesn't get enough attempts to be statistically significant enough.

Actually, this is how life works: some people never succeed at what they try to do. It does take an infinite number of attempts to assure 100% success.

Relevant in the NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/24/opinion/2017-wrong-number...

Re: A Dark Room: From Sabbatical Year to $800k

#35

Post by GuiA »

mkagenius wrote: post #28
evmar wrote: post #4

"If we spend a second thinking about this, if 9 out of 10 startups fail, then we only need to roll the dice 10 times and the last startup will (by statistics) achieve success." That is not how statistics works. : With a 90% failure rate, your chance of failing 10 times in a row is (9/10)^10 ~= 35%.

Then according to stats it would take infinite attempts to succeed. That's not how life works ;) edit: a clarification, that's not how a single human's life works. It will work if you take all humans together into account. If you apply that logic to individuals individually then nobody succeeds ever. edit2: a single human life individually doesn't get enough attempts to be statistically significant enough.

As you imply, you don’t get infinite attempts because you’ll die at some point. Some people never succeed despite their best efforts, effectively taking them infinite attempts to succeed.

Re: A Dark Room: From Sabbatical Year to $800k

#36

Post by [deleted] »

mkagenius wrote: post #28
evmar wrote: post #4

"If we spend a second thinking about this, if 9 out of 10 startups fail, then we only need to roll the dice 10 times and the last startup will (by statistics) achieve success." That is not how statistics works. : With a 90% failure rate, your chance of failing 10 times in a row is (9/10)^10 ~= 35%.

Then according to stats it would take infinite attempts to succeed. That's not how life works ;) edit: a clarification, that's not how a single human's life works. It will work if you take all humans together into account. If you apply that logic to individuals individually then nobody succeeds ever. edit2: a single human life individually doesn't get enough attempts to be statistically significant enough.

[deleted]

Re: A Dark Room: From Sabbatical Year to $800k

#37

Post by cvaidya1986 »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #22
cvaidya1986 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Opportunities are always there for those who keep an open mind and a growth mindset.

Let’s not derail the thread, but there are lots of people with college educations who can still only get a minimum wage job. Opportunities are not endless, nor always there. It’s entire possible you jump off the corporate ladder and never make it back on, your wages permanently stunted and your career prospects dimmed.

Ok let me update it. Opportunities are always there for enterprising, confident and contrarian thinkers who will take several chances with low downside and try to create new things rather than compete within existing paradigms.

Disclaimer: Not financial advice but personal observations

Re: A Dark Room: From Sabbatical Year to $800k

#38

Post by CryoLogic »

rubicon33 wrote: post #17
mkagenius wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The problem is the paycheck. Do I want to risk it all, throw away my savings, all for a chance at success Reading this, it feels better in India. Here I can work for 2 years in a good company, save enough to quit job and do something of my own for 3 years before needing money. (Lots of other stuffs are shitty in India, but this aspect is good)

That's awesome. I love hearing about how this scenario is for people in other countries. Here in California, I don't think that's possible. Cost of living is too high to live for 3 years off of 2 years of savings. Maybe if you were very careful with spending and had a good rent situation, you might be able to do it.

If you are single and don't have children you can always leave CA for a few years, cut your expenses in half by living in a low COL area and come back if it doesn't work out.

Re: A Dark Room: From Sabbatical Year to $800k

#39

Post by alexashka »

I'd like to think there's a middle ground between 'corporate america' and 'at home alone'.

Hitting the jackpot the first time around may have actually led the author away from a place he'd feel most comfortable in - a small company with other people who love what they do.

Re: A Dark Room: From Sabbatical Year to $800k

#40

Post by wuliwong »

cvaidya1986 wrote: post #3
rubicon33 wrote: post #2

> I liquidated my 401k savings (took all the tax penalties up front), and said "alright, gonna live off of this for as long as I can until I figure something out". This is the hard part in all of these stories. Props to him for having the courage (stupidity?). I think this forum is full of people who would not just love to quit their job and work on their own project, but would THRIVE in doing so. The problem is the…

Regret minimization framework. Looking back from your old age would you wish you had done something like this? Can you earn it all back with a good fall back plan on your expertise ?

Is the question of what I will think of something when I'm old really the best question? I know that this seems natural but I wonder if it is a bad way to make choices. I don't think my enjoyment when old is more valuable than my enjoyment when young.
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