No one's mentioned it yet, so I guess I'll be the one.
I can't tolerate that many misspelt words and grammatical errors...
A Dark Room: From Sabbatical Year to $800k
21–30 of 256 posts
Re: A Dark Room: From Sabbatical Year to $800k
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
And if you can’t earn it back, are you prepared to work until you die?
Opportunities are always there for those who keep an open mind and a growth mindset.
Let’s not derail the thread, but there are lots of people with college educations who can still only get a minimum wage job. Opportunities are not endless, nor always there.
It’s entire possible you jump off the corporate ladder and never make it back on, your wages permanently stunted and your career prospects dimmed.
Re: A Dark Room: From Sabbatical Year to $800k
#23"If we spend a second thinking about this, if 9 out of 10 startups fail, then we only need to roll the dice 10 times and the last startup will (by statistics) achieve success." That is not how statistics works. : With a 90% failure rate, your chance of failing 10 times in a row is (9/10)^10 ~= 35%.
The intuition behind it still stands - if you're going to not fail 65% of the time when you try 10 times, that's pretty decent.
Re: A Dark Room: From Sabbatical Year to $800k
#24> I liquidated my 401k savings (took all the tax penalties up front), and said "alright, gonna live off of this for as long as I can until I figure something out". This is the hard part in all of these stories. Props to him for having the courage (stupidity?). I think this forum is full of people who would not just love to quit their job and work on their own project, but would THRIVE in doing so. The problem is the…
If you are living in a high COL area like Seattle or Bay area consider moving to a low tax state with low COL.
Kansas, Montana, Arizona, not places you want to stay forever but you can get a studio apt for $600-$700/mo.
Can probably cut your expenses from LA in 1/3 if you are frugal and push your runway out several years until you start making profits.
Re: A Dark Room: From Sabbatical Year to $800k
#25> I liquidated my 401k savings (took all the tax penalties up front), and said "alright, gonna live off of this for as long as I can until I figure something out". This is the hard part in all of these stories. Props to him for having the courage (stupidity?). I think this forum is full of people who would not just love to quit their job and work on their own project, but would THRIVE in doing so. The problem is the…
> The problem is the paycheck. Do I want to risk it all, throw away my savings, all for a chance at success?
here's something nobody seems to mention.
most people don't risk everything once, then exit with a set-for-life payday a few short years later. that's the rare minority of entrepreneurs. most are moderately successful for many years on end, and may finally do a $multi-million exit after a decade or more of hard work and risk.
after that initial success, you have to risk it all, multiple times, to either keep succeeding, or reach the next level of success. at any point, if you stop risking the status quo you are likely to fail.
in other words it's a self-selecting process. if you are having doubts about risking your meager savings which you can likely earn back within a few years of frugal living while working a high paying programming job, there's your answer.
Re: A Dark Room: From Sabbatical Year to $800k
#26The math on this makes no sense at all. > - Live off of $15k a year. Don't buy a house. Don't buy a fancy car. Just save. - Do this for a year. - Land a job that makes you $100k a year. Save the rest. Max out your 401k contribution. - Celebrate by living off of $30k a year. - Do this for three years. - Land a job that makes you $140k a year. Save the rest. Max out your 401k contribution. Get a Roth, put $5k a year in…
He mentions in the course of the article putting a big down payment on a house after his big hit because his girlfriend/wife got tired of living in a small apartment, so he still has mortgage payments to make, plus his family didn't want to live frugally forever.
Re: A Dark Room: From Sabbatical Year to $800k
#27This guy made a lot of really questionable decisions. Put his future and family at risk. His only hit was porting someone else's hit game to iOS. He himself admits he is working again now only so he can build a stash and gamble it all again.
I hope he finds success some day, but given his track record, I'm very skeptical of his conclusions.
Re: A Dark Room: From Sabbatical Year to $800k
#28"If we spend a second thinking about this, if 9 out of 10 startups fail, then we only need to roll the dice 10 times and the last startup will (by statistics) achieve success." That is not how statistics works. : With a 90% failure rate, your chance of failing 10 times in a row is (9/10)^10 ~= 35%.
Then according to stats it would take infinite attempts to succeed. That's not how life works ;)
edit: a clarification, that's not how a single human's life works. It will work if you take all humans together into account. If you apply that logic to individuals individually then nobody succeeds ever.
edit2: a single human life individually doesn't get enough attempts to be statistically significant enough.
Re: A Dark Room: From Sabbatical Year to $800k
#29Similar recent interview with him on indie hackers : https://www.indiehackers.com/businesses/a-dark-room
Re: A Dark Room: From Sabbatical Year to $800k
#30"If we spend a second thinking about this, if 9 out of 10 startups fail, then we only need to roll the dice 10 times and the last startup will (by statistics) achieve success." That is not how statistics works. : With a 90% failure rate, your chance of failing 10 times in a row is (9/10)^10 ~= 35%.
They're also not independent trials. If you just failed 9 times in a row, you're probably not the best at startups.
Or maybe you learned tons and it makes your 10th attempt more likely to succeed?
Ultimately these ponderations are kind of meaningless in the absence of great data to frame them with.