Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Lyft Self-Driving

lyft.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 176 posts

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#51

Post by mcny »

CPLX wrote: post #25
bookmarkacc wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who ever gets self driving down first can get as many cars are they want. Two scenarios: "Let Uber drive you to work for free then pay you to use your car for the day. We'll cover the gas!" "GM is happy to partner with Lyft to be the first self diving car! GM Good. GM Hip"

Which of those two sentences is the one that's going to create seven million cars out of thin air and then maintain, manage, and insure them?

What do we do when someone pukes in the driverless uber?

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#52

Post by greentrust »

xandar11 wrote: post #29

I'm skeptical about all this. Hubert Horan [1] has done a great job exposing Uber's failed business model in 11 part series on NakedCapitalism ("Can Uber Ever Deliver?"). Same goes for Lyft. When it comes to self driving cars, why should Uber or Lyft have any massive advantage over other players and what makes us think it won't turn into something like an airline industry which has been unprofitable for most of their…

A hypothetical – since flights are relatively expensive, people usually just go for the cheapest option, so airlines race to the bottom and lose profits. With autonomous vehicles the cost of a ride will be very inexpensive–a few dollars probably–so consumers may focus less on cost in favor of brand loyalty, cool cars, etc, leaving room for providers upsell certain services and profit (turning a $4 ride into a $5 isn't a bad profit margin)

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#53

Post by TYPE_FASTER »

skywhopper wrote: post #10

To the extent this works anytime soon it will be so slow and inconsistent that it won’t be economically successful. Any driving service that works worse at night, in bad weather, or outside small well-mapped neighborhoods will not be comprehensive or reliable enough to be economically viable. Also the idea that self driving cars will end traffic is a dangerous lie to tell. Self driving cars will do nothing to reduce…

I think self driving cars will increase safety, and decrease accidents. I've read that accidents contribute for 25% of traffic congestion that exists today, so self driving cars could have a noticeable impact on decreasing drive times.

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#54

Post by sidcool »

omarforgotpwd wrote: post #35

GM owns 9% of Lyft, and also acquired Cruise, a YC company working on self driving tech. Since you can't invest in Lyft or Uber today, I would advise people to buy GM. I own about 5 times more Tesla stock than GM but I think GM is a really great value today trading at a P/E of less than 7. With the economics of this business transforming fundamentally over the next decade, making cars more of a "tech" business, I thi…

Having recently watched the 'the big short', this is understandable and terrifying at the same time.

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#55

Post by brians »

tlb wrote: post #40
xandar11 wrote: post #29

I'm skeptical about all this. Hubert Horan [1] has done a great job exposing Uber's failed business model in 11 part series on NakedCapitalism ("Can Uber Ever Deliver?"). Same goes for Lyft. When it comes to self driving cars, why should Uber or Lyft have any massive advantage over other players and what makes us think it won't turn into something like an airline industry which has been unprofitable for most of their…

The airline industry is unprofitable mainly because the pilots capture most of the money. Their union gives them nearly unlimited pricing power. It's possibly that self-driving cars won't be profitable, but it certainly won't be for the same reason. There's reason to believe it'll be a winner-take-all market, because more data leads to lower crash rate which (in a world of rational consumers) will make them more popu…

If that were true, we’d expect the nonunion carriers to do fantastically. But Frank Lorenzo has broken N unions and driven N airlines under. We’d expect the regional carriers, which often pay under $40k to pilots, to do great—but they fail more often than the big carriers paying $100 to $150k.

But your last point is interesting. AlphaGo Zero suggests that for many situations, the return to more data levels off very quickly—after all, humans all learn to drive reasonably well with a certain amount of training. The early phases may have this self-reinforcing bit, and there may be an early dominant player, but we should expect that twenty years in anybody will be able to make a self-driving car that is as safe as modern air travel.

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#56

Post by lanna »

mherdeg wrote: post #47

If there's a 90% reduction in accidents, who will be providing the donor organs? What will happen to the average lifespan of people with certain chronic illnesses?

Are you truly suggesting we allow young, healthy individuals to die in car accidents to harvest their organs?

You should be asking yourself what will happen to the average lifespan of those who won't die prematurely in a car accident.

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#57

Post by nradov »

tlb wrote: post #40
xandar11 wrote: post #29

I'm skeptical about all this. Hubert Horan [1] has done a great job exposing Uber's failed business model in 11 part series on NakedCapitalism ("Can Uber Ever Deliver?"). Same goes for Lyft. When it comes to self driving cars, why should Uber or Lyft have any massive advantage over other players and what makes us think it won't turn into something like an airline industry which has been unprofitable for most of their…

The airline industry is unprofitable mainly because the pilots capture most of the money. Their union gives them nearly unlimited pricing power. It's possibly that self-driving cars won't be profitable, but it certainly won't be for the same reason. There's reason to believe it'll be a winner-take-all market, because more data leads to lower crash rate which (in a world of rational consumers) will make them more popu…

This shouldn't be down voted, you are correct about the airline part. For details see the excellent explanation by Philip Greenspun, an engineer who switched careers to become an airline pilot.

http://philip.greenspun.com/flying/unions-and-airlines

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#58

Post by ttul »

greentrust wrote: post #52
xandar11 wrote: post #29

I'm skeptical about all this. Hubert Horan [1] has done a great job exposing Uber's failed business model in 11 part series on NakedCapitalism ("Can Uber Ever Deliver?"). Same goes for Lyft. When it comes to self driving cars, why should Uber or Lyft have any massive advantage over other players and what makes us think it won't turn into something like an airline industry which has been unprofitable for most of their…

A hypothetical – since flights are relatively expensive, people usually just go for the cheapest option, so airlines race to the bottom and lose profits. With autonomous vehicles the cost of a ride will be very inexpensive–a few dollars probably–so consumers may focus less on cost in favor of brand loyalty, cool cars, etc, leaving room for providers upsell certain services and profit (turning a $4 ride into a $5 isn'…

I know I will. I’m not going to ride in the Crapton Expresss.

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#59

Post by grecy »

skywhopper wrote: post #10

To the extent this works anytime soon it will be so slow and inconsistent that it won’t be economically successful. Any driving service that works worse at night, in bad weather, or outside small well-mapped neighborhoods will not be comprehensive or reliable enough to be economically viable. Also the idea that self driving cars will end traffic is a dangerous lie to tell. Self driving cars will do nothing to reduce…

To the extent this works anytime soon it will be so slow and inconsistent that it won’t be economically successful. Any driving service that works worse at night, in bad weather, or outside small well-mapped neighborhoods will not be comprehensive or reliable enough to be economically viable.

Worst case scenario - the cars NEVER self-drive and always have a driver - the whole setup is exactly as economically viable as current taxis. From all reports, current taxi setups make a lot of money.

If the cars can self-drive lets say 25% of the time, then the whole setup is that much more economically viable.

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#60

Post by dukeflukem »

omarforgotpwd wrote: post #35

GM owns 9% of Lyft, and also acquired Cruise, a YC company working on self driving tech. Since you can't invest in Lyft or Uber today, I would advise people to buy GM. I own about 5 times more Tesla stock than GM but I think GM is a really great value today trading at a P/E of less than 7. With the economics of this business transforming fundamentally over the next decade, making cars more of a "tech" business, I thi…

Might be a good one to add to the folio. Got some VW that I picked up cheap after the emissions scandle.
Post reply on HN