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A preview of the U.S. without pensions

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Re: A preview of the U.S. without pensions

#211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The other issue is interest rates being so low it amounts to a war on savings I used to think this; then I discovered index funds, and stopped keeping money in a savings account.

How did you feel in the 2008 crash? No snark, just wondering how that was versus a savings account.

The best way I ever heard it described was "the market is on sale right now".

Re: A preview of the U.S. without pensions

#212
post #145

Then corporate America changed: Union membership waned. Executive boards, under pressure from financial raiders, focused more intently on maximizing stock prices. ... Exactly what led corporate America away from pensions is a matter of debate among scholars, but there is little question that they seem destined for extinction, at least in the private sector. Oh, please. Nobody seriously debates this, the answer is rig…

What you say is correct, but pensions are inherently risky to companies. There are two prime sources of risk: The stock market and retiree statistics. If either turns south, the company is required to make up the difference, which can cause smaller companies to fold. When both the stock market and retiree statistics were stable, companies were happy to provide pensions. But both (especially the stock market) are too volatile nowadays for pension plans to be viable. The only solution now is for the federal government to cover the unpredictability of planning for retirement.

Re: A preview of the U.S. without pensions

#213
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's a ponzi scheme. In no away shape or form a ponzi scheme.

Seems to somewhat fit the defition, if you squint a little > A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation where the operator generates returns for older investors through revenue paid by new investors, rather than from legitimate business activities or profit of financial trading. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme

None of us are paying into social security expecting a positive return. That's why it isn't a ponzi scheme. There is no fraud involved.

Re: A preview of the U.S. without pensions

#214
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's why independently run 401(k)'s are the best. I'm a trustee of the one for our company, and there's no way I could raid it.

Lots of people "raid" it by going to cash in the down-turns in the market and buying in the hyped peaks losing over 50% in the cycle.

I think your usage of "raid" is not what is being discussed here. The meaning here is when companies get in trouble, they use loopholes (or downright evil language) in their retirement plans to essentially take the money from employees.

Re: A preview of the U.S. without pensions

#216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Recessions like 2008 are part of the normal ebb and flow of the markets, and we're likely heading into another one (though hopefully not quite so bad). 5-6 years earlier wouldn't have made a noticeable difference unless they were planning on retiring between 2008-2012ish, the markets have recovered after all. Personally, if I see the stock market dip like that again I'm going to double down on my 401(k) contributions…

Historically, timing the dips does not work out, but maybe if everyone is thinking that way the strategy could work.

If timing the dips would work consistently there wouldn't be any dips because everyone would take the risk free return until there is no risk free return left.

Re: A preview of the U.S. without pensions

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The other issue is interest rates being so low it amounts to a war on savings I used to think this; then I discovered index funds, and stopped keeping money in a savings account.

How did you feel in the 2008 crash? No snark, just wondering how that was versus a savings account.

If you don't need to liquidate it doesn't matter.

Re: A preview of the U.S. without pensions

#218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How did you feel in the 2008 crash? No snark, just wondering how that was versus a savings account.

The best way I ever heard it described was "the market is on sale right now".

So you invested in the run up to the crash as well? Or only started investing in 2009+ (also known as a sweet summer child :)

Re: A preview of the U.S. without pensions

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How did you feel in the 2008 crash? No snark, just wondering how that was versus a savings account.

VTI is up ~200% since the bottom. If he bought (dollar cost averaging) and held. Probably feels great.

He would feel great now. Just wondering his attitude when his "savings" dropped ~50% 2008-2009. Most people can't handle saving a million dollars over 25 years and have it drop in half over 6 months. The pain is too much. Avoiding this situation (and other reasons) is why pensions are better for most people.

Re: A preview of the U.S. without pensions

#220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Historically, timing the dips does not work out, but maybe if everyone is thinking that way the strategy could work.

If timing the dips would work consistently there wouldn't be any dips because everyone would take the risk free return until there is no risk free return left.

Of course not consistently. Just, if something becomes conventional wisdom in investing all of a sudden, there might be contrarian opportunities for a little while.
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