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Novogratz Halts Hedge Fund, Says Bitcoin May Drop to $8,000

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Re: Novogratz Halts Hedge Fund, Says Bitcoin May Drop to $8,000

#101

Post by robryan »

tom_mellior wrote: post #53
mutteraloo wrote: post #9

It could also go back to $100. Bitcoin has no mainstream use right now. It's too expensive to transact in terms of money and time, it's too volatile to be a store of value, it's too technical to be used casually, it's too fragile since it gets hacked every which way, and it's too easily copied to be rare.

> it's too technical to be used casually In casual use with your mobile phone, you are shown a QR code, scan it, tap "OK", and it's done. Not that technical. Billions of people with smartphones could handle that perfectly. You're right about transactions being slow and expensive, and that is certainly a much bigger problem. That and the fact that there are still very few places accepting it.

At the current volatility how can businesses be expected to take on the risk of accepting bitcoin? None of their costs would be in bitcoin so they would have to be constantly moving their bitcoin to fiat currency and taking a risk on wild daily swings.

Re: Novogratz Halts Hedge Fund, Says Bitcoin May Drop to $8,000

#102

Post by tom_mellior »

robryan wrote: post #101
tom_mellior wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's too technical to be used casually In casual use with your mobile phone, you are shown a QR code, scan it, tap "OK", and it's done. Not that technical. Billions of people with smartphones could handle that perfectly. You're right about transactions being slow and expensive, and that is certainly a much bigger problem. That and the fact that there are still very few places accepting it.

At the current volatility how can businesses be expected to take on the risk of accepting bitcoin? None of their costs would be in bitcoin so they would have to be constantly moving their bitcoin to fiat currency and taking a risk on wild daily swings.

Businesses accepting Bitcoin typically do it via third-party payment processors. The intermediate takes a cut, shields the vendor from the risks, and pays an agreed price in fiat.

The system has been in place for years, and it works reasonably well. More competition would still help. And yes, a better network and better systems to cut out the intermediary would help even more.

Re: Novogratz Halts Hedge Fund, Says Bitcoin May Drop to $8,000

#103

Post by madaxe_again »

jondubois wrote: post #97
omarforgotpwd wrote: post #95

How the fuck is some guy, or anyone for that matter supposed to know where the Bitcoin price is going to go? Yeah it could go to 1,000 or even 100... it could also go to 100,000 by next month. There are so many factors at play it’s extremely difficult to make a prediction with a high degree of confidence. If this guy thinks it’s going to drop to $8000 just because the price fell 20% in one day he must be new to this.…

By making the prediction, it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. He is probably just trying to make the price drop more so that he can buy even more Bitcoin. The end of the year is often a time when people get together... Bitcoin is bound to come up in conversations. So I think that there might actually be a big rise in interest after Christmas.

The last few days have been delightful for longer term holders - it’s just been wave after wave of panic selling, with everybody seemingly forgetting that there are futures contracts out there for Jan delivery at $16k+.

I think what we’ve just seen is a bit of a forced sell off, to drive the price down before the next big speculative bubble, which will likely mirror the one after thanksgiving.

Re: Novogratz Halts Hedge Fund, Says Bitcoin May Drop to $8,000

#104

Post by StavrosK »

tom_mellior wrote: post #102
robryan wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the current volatility how can businesses be expected to take on the risk of accepting bitcoin? None of their costs would be in bitcoin so they would have to be constantly moving their bitcoin to fiat currency and taking a risk on wild daily swings.

Businesses accepting Bitcoin typically do it via third-party payment processors. The intermediate takes a cut, shields the vendor from the risks, and pays an agreed price in fiat. The system has been in place for years, and it works reasonably well. More competition would still help. And yes, a better network and better systems to cut out the intermediary would help even more.

The problem with that now, and the reason why Steam stopped accepting Bitcoin, is that the peg expires by the time the transaction comes in, which can take hours.

Re: Novogratz Halts Hedge Fund, Says Bitcoin May Drop to $8,000

#105

Post by Fnoord »

jondubois wrote: post #97
omarforgotpwd wrote: post #95

How the fuck is some guy, or anyone for that matter supposed to know where the Bitcoin price is going to go? Yeah it could go to 1,000 or even 100... it could also go to 100,000 by next month. There are so many factors at play it’s extremely difficult to make a prediction with a high degree of confidence. If this guy thinks it’s going to drop to $8000 just because the price fell 20% in one day he must be new to this.…

By making the prediction, it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. He is probably just trying to make the price drop more so that he can buy even more Bitcoin. The end of the year is often a time when people get together... Bitcoin is bound to come up in conversations. So I think that there might actually be a big rise in interest after Christmas.

"After Christmas" is vague. Its likely people are going to buy a lot right after dec 31 because taxation upcoming this year is about what's owned from before jan 1. The IRS et al is also going to receive some large sums of money over Bitcoins in 2017.

Disclaimer: I don't know any cryptocurrency.

Re: Novogratz Halts Hedge Fund, Says Bitcoin May Drop to $8,000

#106

Post by Fnoord »

cryptodogemoon wrote: post #98
bootlooped wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Bitcoin "as app" (once or if it works) will be more like cash payments, privacy wise. One massive caveat is that all Bitcoin transactions are public, traceable, and permanently stored in the Bitcoin network. In most ways it's worse than cash, in some ways it's probably even worse than credit cards.

zk proofs supposedly resolve that issue. monereo, zcash, and eventually ethereum the concept seems to make sense but I'd be curious how to audit such an obfuscated system

s/monereo/Monero/

Re: Novogratz Halts Hedge Fund, Says Bitcoin May Drop to $8,000

#107

Post by scotty79 »

omarforgotpwd wrote: post #95

How the fuck is some guy, or anyone for that matter supposed to know where the Bitcoin price is going to go? Yeah it could go to 1,000 or even 100... it could also go to 100,000 by next month. There are so many factors at play it’s extremely difficult to make a prediction with a high degree of confidence. If this guy thinks it’s going to drop to $8000 just because the price fell 20% in one day he must be new to this.…

I read what he said as: 'Since btc dropped 20% in a day I might have trouble to find suckers to participate in mu "fund", I need to lay low for a bit till this all "you can loose on bitcoin" blows over.'

Re: Novogratz Halts Hedge Fund, Says Bitcoin May Drop to $8,000

#108

Post by cglace »

coralreef wrote: post #56
geezerjay wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People always forget to include future innovations in their projections. It's as if they don't believe (or know) that software can rapidly improve. And you posted that comment while driving your flying car on your way to alpha centauri, right? Foolosh cargo cult beliefs such as the ones you've illustrated do not serve as any basis to make investment decisions.

Everyone thought Netflix was a useless mail-order DVD company until it dominated streaming video. Everyone thought Amazon would never make a profit until it revealed the profit monster that is AWS. No one can predict the future, all you can do is take the information you have available today and come to your own conclusion. If you don't understand the implications of cryptocurrency on society and money, then that's y…

Everyone did not think either of those things. In fact most people saw a lot of value in both companies and used/invested heavily in both.

I've followed bitcoin from the beginning and personally think the only problem it seems to solve is a way for techies to get rich quick.

Re: Novogratz Halts Hedge Fund, Says Bitcoin May Drop to $8,000

#109

Post by coralreef »

geezerjay wrote: post #96
coralreef wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, there were relatively more coins produced early on. Those coins were also pretty much worthless early on.

> Those coins were also pretty much worthless early on. ...hence the "pump" stage of the pump-and-dump scheme being conducted quite extensively, with all forms of scammers publicizing the immense virtues and magically perpetual low value of bitcoin, hoping that the next batch of fools and idiots open their wallets to finance the value pumping.

> publicizing the immense virtues and magically perpetual low value...

This happens every day in securities. Those "pumpers" are called "analysts". They sometimes work for investment banks and research firms. You can choose to follow their advice or you can bet against it.

Apple shares were $0.50 (unadjusted) in its early history. By your definition, anyone espousing the future of Apple and computers at that point is a pump and dump scammer.

Re: Novogratz Halts Hedge Fund, Says Bitcoin May Drop to $8,000

#110

Post by Zarath »

0wing wrote: post #66
coralreef wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What scheme are you talking about? It's an unregulated market, so yes, there are scams and dumps occurring. However BTC has huge volume, so it takes huge volume and risk to manipulate it. Or manipulation from the exchange itself. Those are risks that the informed trader is aware of. Any and all securities go up and down, whether it is justified or not.

Nearly every cryptocurrency followed Bitcoins scheme, wherein massive quantities of the supply were produced for the first few weeks to a small group of users, so any later users entering these systems must than buy from those horders or spend more and more capital on the increasingly expensive and reducing output of mining. It's not exactly a ponzi or pyramid scheme, but the manipulative intent is clear so a new ter…

Literally every investment is a "ponzi" or "pyramid" by your definition. If I invest in a company I can get a hell of a lot more shares for cheap now than when they IPO.
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