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Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin

hussmanfunds.com

121–130 of 163 posts

Re: Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin

#121

I look beyond the “there’s a crash coming” sentiment. In that opinion, he is like all other pundits yammering on CNBC: entertaining rather than enlightening. What I like about his article is the insight — new to me — about the nature of paper wealth vs real wealth. He described it in a way that is useful and enlightening to me. The assertion that a security (stock, bond) is not an addition to net wealth — just a zero…

It's the kind of thing that isn't obvious at present, at least given most discussions of money, equities, and wealth. But with a different economic paradigm, some of things concepts become more obvious. Henry George was commenting on precisely this some 140 years ago:

http://fortfairfieldjournal.com/mpl_hgeorge_money.htm

Re: Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin

#122
post #14

Understanding Bitcoin is hard. Here is a response to some of the criticism: > Every time a block is validated, a single node in the network gets a reward, and everyone else’s computing time is completely wasted. This is a misunderstanding of what PoW is http://www.truthcoin.info/blog/pow-cheapest/ > The system already features a rather steep cost per transaction, and hardly any of those transactions are for the purch…

>> Every time a block is validated, a single node in the network gets a reward, and everyone else’s computing time is completely wasted. >This is a misunderstanding of what PoW is http://www.truthcoin.info/blog/pow-cheapest/ Honest question: I tried to find the problem with that view in the link you provided, but couldn't. Can you explain it to others who may share the same belief? I think that's what the Bitcoin whi…

Everyone else's computing time is wasted, in the sense that all that electricity and processor time (both of which cost money) have not contributed even one bit to the blockchain.

The point of the article (and I'm surprised that it takes them so long to explain it) is that regardless of the blockchain building process you choose, the entities responsible for adding blocks to the blockchain form a highly competitive market, and in these kinds of markets the costs grow very close to their expected income.

For Bitcoin, those entities are the miners, and costs grow because if you don't buy the latest high-powered hash-nozzle, your neighbor will, and your expected revenue will drop. It's an arms race that only stops once the costs exceed the revenue, meaning that most of the revenue from each block dissipates into electricity and hardware, and the electricity and hardware that doesn't contribute to a block is waster.

But even for a different blockchain model, designed to not waste anything, the same thing would happen: block-adders are incentivized to spend as much money as possible to increase their slice of the pie. In the end, the same amount of money (the revenue for a block) would still be spent in electricity, hardware, bespoke lava lamps or golf sessions with senators, anything that lets miners get one step ahead in the arms race.

Of course, if you were to drive down transaction costs, the available revenue for each block would go down, and the amount of wealth that can be wasted would decrease as well.

Re: Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin

#123
post #75

I look beyond the “there’s a crash coming” sentiment. In that opinion, he is like all other pundits yammering on CNBC: entertaining rather than enlightening. What I like about his article is the insight — new to me — about the nature of paper wealth vs real wealth. He described it in a way that is useful and enlightening to me. The assertion that a security (stock, bond) is not an addition to net wealth — just a zero…

Trade is a wealth creation mechanism, because different people assign different values to things. When a baker exchanges some loaves of bread with a carpenter for a table, wealth is created: they're both rational actors who know that the thing they're getting is worth more (to them) than the thing they're giving away. The same is true when the baker sells bread for money. The same is true when they issue a bond for t…

Correct, but the article specifically referred to securities as zero-sum transfers. A security is linked to something that has value, and exchanging the security doesn’t alter the value of what the security is linked to.

Re: Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost anything? Even the market's most ardent defenders would not claim it is a system of constant predictability. If it were predictable investing would be a lot easier.

I guess it depends on how you see it. In the past, the system may have fluctuated less, but the bottoms went very low; the current economy (which is broader than "the market") may fluctuate more, but it's also better at providing a predictable baseline. In my European country, even less than a century ago, it was unpredictable for large swaths of the population whether they'd have enough to eat to survive next year.…

Even in the US, apparently, up to 12% of the population[1] is sometimes in a position where they have to skip meals, so even there, I'd say the depths someone can fall to are, potentially, very low. And a lot of what makes our current system at least somewhat predictable is controls restricting the unfettered operation of the market. A truly unrestricted market would be very unpredictable. All in all, I don't see predictability as a particular strong suit of markets, even with the most optimistic assumptions -- and I'd also say that, contrary to the original post, promoting stability is not the reason they came about. Enclosure was not a particularly stability-promoting maneuver, for instance.

[1]https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/fo...

Re: Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin

#125
post #14

Understanding Bitcoin is hard. Here is a response to some of the criticism: > Every time a block is validated, a single node in the network gets a reward, and everyone else’s computing time is completely wasted. This is a misunderstanding of what PoW is http://www.truthcoin.info/blog/pow-cheapest/ > The system already features a rather steep cost per transaction, and hardly any of those transactions are for the purch…

There seems to be no timeline for LN’s release, and no sense of urgency from the devs. It feels very amateurish. There’s a good chance that by the time it comes out Bitcoin could be left in the dust by a different crypto currency.

What are you talking about? The protocol is standardized, there are 3 implementations in testing, they're sending multi-hop transactions across all 3 different implementations on the Bitcoin mainnest, there's at least one client plus an explorer.

https://news.bitcoin.com/lightning-networks-new-infrastructu...

It's clearly on track for a 2018 release.

Re: Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin

#126
post #9

The economy is just a mechanism to have a predictable environment in which to raise children.

The economy is not a mechanism. It's just a term we use to generalize about the production of goods and services.

Capitalism, socialism, fiscal policies and such are mechanisms that are used to influence the economy.

Re: Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There seems to be no timeline for LN’s release, and no sense of urgency from the devs. It feels very amateurish. There’s a good chance that by the time it comes out Bitcoin could be left in the dust by a different crypto currency.

What are you talking about? The protocol is standardized, there are 3 implementations in testing, they're sending multi-hop transactions across all 3 different implementations on the Bitcoin mainnest, there's at least one client plus an explorer. https://news.bitcoin.com/lightning-networks-new-infrastructu... It's clearly on track for a 2018 release.

"On track for a 2018 release" is not a timeline, IMO.

Elizabeth Stark said we were https://twitter.com/starkness/status/676599570898419712

And for the downvoters: I am no shill. I've been holding BTC long-term. I am just a realist with a good understanding of the reliability of software engineers' estimates, esp. in this case.

Re: Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin

#128
The writer makes a few good points -- I liked his quoted selection "Faced with extreme valuations, the first impulse of investors..."

However, I think there is a fundamental flaw in his analysis -- specifically when he makes this a majority foundation of his point:

"Every security is an asset to the holder, and an equivalent liability to the issuer."

That's not true right? A few moments reflection makes me think of stocks -- which are equity, not a asset nor liability. [1]

What do you guys think? That point seemed to be a big part of his analysis, right?

[1] https://www.quora.com/What-makes-a-common-stock-an-asset-or-...

Re: Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin

#129

The writer makes a few good points -- I liked his quoted selection "Faced with extreme valuations, the first impulse of investors..." However, I think there is a fundamental flaw in his analysis -- specifically when he makes this a majority foundation of his point: "Every security is an asset to the holder, and an equivalent liability to the issuer." That's not true right? A few moments reflection makes me think of s…

He’s just saying it’s an IOU, I think.

Re: Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin

#130
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This company has ~$750mm under management, and has several funds that manage to have both a) high expense ratios and b) horrible performance over the short and long terms. Serious question, for those who work in finance: how do companies like this stay in business? Shouldn't the transparency of their poor performance have long since driven them out of business? Semi-serious question, also for those who work in financ…

Funds like this tend to outperform in bad to normal markets and underperform in highly bullish markets as they have more discipline around valuation. Warren Buffett famously underperforms in very bullish markets as well The pitch of funds like this is that for a few years out of 10, they'll underperform, and then massively outperform when everyone else is sucking. People invest in funds like this (note I don't know t…

A few years seems reasonable. However, they seem to underperform for most years out of 10. This is their best performing fund: https://www.hussmanfunds.com/strategic-total-return-fund/

On the other hand, this is their "growth" fund: https://www.hussmanfunds.com/strategic-growth-fund/ Its performance is absolutely abysmal.

What is Hussman's "PhD" in? Losing money?

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