Bitcoin and almost every other cryptocurrency crashed hard today • Hacker News Board

Re: Bitcoin and almost every other cryptocurrency crashed hard today

#331

Post by skinnymuch » Fri, Dec 22, 2017, 4:58 PM UTC

paul7986 wrote: post #91

scotty79 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Buying it now is fairly reasonable. I'd wait few months. If it is actually crashing not just backing up before next silly raise then you'd be better off waiting till it settles after the crash. It usually takes few months or a year. If you don't want to gamble, bitcoin is rather long term investment.

I opened a bank account for BitCoin and put less then $100 into for investment. No way would I ever connect my real bank account to any crypto currency wallet. Anyway I invested the $100 and I am down, but whatever it's like going to the casino and gambling/losing it all.

Yeah I mean it's just $100. Not much to go up or down on with it.

Re: Bitcoin and almost every other cryptocurrency crashed hard today

#332

Post by sowbug » Fri, Dec 22, 2017, 4:59 PM UTC

cm2187 wrote: post #212

sowbug wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same is true about Facebook. Someone could clone the features and create facebook2.com, and everyone would flock to it. That's why Facebook stock is a Ponzi scheme. Anyone who thinks Facebook has a value above $0 is insane.

Isn't that instagram?

A little. It is somewhat like Bitcoin Cash, which I'll admit surprised me by not dying immediately. The way I reconciled it with my view of the world is that it's a different feature set (larger ledger pages) that was too hard to integrate with the main product (Bitcoin), so they did a market test with a different brand and found out it resonated with some people. ("they" is an odd term to use because it was actually two viciously opposed groups, but the same kind of infighting happens in corporations as well, and people on the outside think corporations are all singular hive minds, so oh well).

I continue to view Bitcoin Cash as a prototype for different features that validates the need for Bitcoin to address that market segment, either by fixing the block size problem outright, or by the lightning network. I don't see a world where both BTC and BCH coexist long-term.

I can't explain why Instagram coexists with Facebook. It does feel like one is a superset of the other. Maybe Instagram's simplicity and ease of use is simply inconsistent with Facebook's engulfing experience, and they truly are two distinct features of a larger whole. If that's the case, then I'm looking at BTC/BCH the wrong way, and they're also part of a larger whole, and both will survive. So my original facetious point that Facebook is cloneable (which of course it isn't, because its value is in network effects, not its source code) would actually be somewhat true, except that it's different products serving the same overall network, just overlapping but distinct parts of it.

Re: Bitcoin and almost every other cryptocurrency crashed hard today

#333

Post by asciimo » Fri, Dec 22, 2017, 5:00 PM UTC

repox wrote: post #58

I never invested in Bitcoins. I've been asked by many people the past few weeks whether or not they should invest - truthfully, I told people not to and wait to the current "wave" of popularity was over. I genuinely don't know that much about speculation in currency, but is this "burst bubble" really it this time? Is this supposed to be the actual end of actual value for Bitcoins now?

Bitcoin has "died" hundreds of times. Here's an article discussing its doom when it dropped 50% (down to $108) back in 2013: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/06/bitcoin-sees-th... It has been the same technology since 2009, regardless of the market around it. I think that there is real value in that technology. The world is trying to measure this value, and having an awkward time of it. Let's check back in 10 years. :)

Re: Bitcoin and almost every other cryptocurrency crashed hard today

#334

Post by paulgb » Fri, Dec 22, 2017, 5:05 PM UTC

sowbug wrote: post #304

paulgb wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If your analogy is that Bitcoin is a 28.8k modem, then it seems to follow that something analogous to a 56k modem will come along and replace it?

Maybe. Or the modem is part of Bitcoin's infrastructure that needs to be replaced. Bitcoin's architecture is reasonably modular, so that is a possible outcome. I can't read tea leaves better than anyone else, but I do agree with Hal Finney's Bitcoin-or-bust observation. If another cryptocurrency besides Bitcoin takes hold, it's likely that all cryptocurrencies will fail. This is because the scarcity argument proves f…

Fair enough, that's a more nuanced reply than I expected and I appreciate it.

Re: Bitcoin and almost every other cryptocurrency crashed hard today

#335

Post by bogomipz » Fri, Dec 22, 2017, 5:05 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #315

bogomipz wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"- not rare" Its not a commodity it's a currency. Why does it need to be "rare"? The US dollar is also not backed by anything "rare" and hasn't been since Nixon abandoned the gold standard in 1973. >"didn't have any government backing or big institutional backing in case the price dropped from 19,000 to 11,000" You realize this is the exact reason it was created right? That's the whole point. It's not coincidence th…

You need to pay US taxes in dollars that instantly creates trillions in demand every year.

If you are being paid in dollars you are already holding dollars. Paying tax on dollars you are already holding does not create a demand.

Re: Bitcoin and almost every other cryptocurrency crashed hard today

#336

Post by Retric » Fri, Dec 22, 2017, 5:05 PM UTC

em3rgent0rdr wrote: post #261

apcragg wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dollar is essentially backed by oil and the fact that it's needed to trade with the largest economy in the world, not to mention the country with the largest military.

Sure those things help give value to the dollar by increasing its demand. Whether of not this constitutes "backing" depends on the definition of backing. There is no underlying asset that directly backs the dollar, which is the whole point of fiat currencies. The fundamental source of demand is the requirement that US Taxes must be paid in dollars. The utility of using dollars to trade with the US economy is simply a…

You must pay US taxes in USD which collectively must equal a large percentage of the US economy. So, the USD is backed up by everything made in the US.

The downside is the US government's outlay is larger than it's income, but in practice that's less important than you might think.

Re: Bitcoin and almost every other cryptocurrency crashed hard today

#337

Post by root_axis » Fri, Dec 22, 2017, 5:07 PM UTC

Klathmon wrote: post #329

root_axis wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And I could make thousands of kinds of physical coins next month No, you couldn't, not without literally tons of raw material, heavy machinery and infrastructure to mint the coins, laborers to run the operation, time to process the raw materials, and a practical mechanism to circulate the coins. These are serious barriers to the creation of physical money, unlike cryptocurrency which can be instantly and effortless…

>The point is that you can't just "create a new company" tomorrow that is in any way comparable to a successful business That's my point exactly! Just because you can replicate the "class" of thing, doesn't mean you can replicate the thing... Just like how a company stock isn't just a piece of paper that anyone can photocopy, a cryptocurrency isn't just the code that runs it. It's the users, the track record of secur…

> Simply making a new cryptocurrency is exactly the same as making a new company, or a new facebook, or a new toyota, or a new anything.

No, it isn't at all similar, because business are specialized entities with specific properties that cannot be easily replicated, unlike a crypto-token ledger which can be instantly and effortlessly replicated with identical qualities and capabilities at near zero cost.

> So is the pile of scamcoins and poorly thought out implementations that have already collapsed within months of their creation

The critical distinction that you're not seeing is the fact that it costs nothing to create a scamcoin unlike a business which can cost the creator everything if it fails. You're also ignoring the fact that a business has to effectively serve the market for it to even be comparable to a competitor, you can't just incorporate a business, buy a bunch of ads and start pulling in money, you need to actually do something that generates wealth, unlike crypto-token ledgers which require nothing except for people to run the code.

Re: Bitcoin and almost every other cryptocurrency crashed hard today

#338

Post by SnowingXIV » Fri, Dec 22, 2017, 5:07 PM UTC

cs702 wrote: post #179

What we're seeing right now is a shakeout of all those unsophisticated individuals who have been purchasing crytocurrencies in growing numbers, mostly without understanding them, and in many cases with borrowed money and even by taking out home mortgages.[a] Those unsophisticated buyers are the ones who pushed the price of Bitcoin from ~$1000 at the beginning of the year to $18000+ a couple of weeks ago.[b] Now they'…

Sounds like gatekeeping. This isn't uncommon, I've done a fair amount of day trading and I've invested in many companies that I know nothing about aside from the numbers look good. They have healthy financials or it's a pharma company about to get a patent (protip: I know nothing about how they make it or any of the chemistry). That's how people are approaching this and it's/was growing. Now, I would say this is similar to betting on a penny stock that could basically go bankrupt the next day. I've received those letters, fun stuff but it's a gamble. Don't treat it as a 401k or a saving account, it's not. It's speculative 100%.

Re: Bitcoin and almost every other cryptocurrency crashed hard today

#339

Post by Retric » Fri, Dec 22, 2017, 5:08 PM UTC

bogomipz wrote: post #335

Retric wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need to pay US taxes in dollars that instantly creates trillions in demand every year.

If you are being paid in dollars you are already holding dollars. Paying tax on dollars you are already holding does not create a demand.

If a US company is paid in euros or gold it still needs to pay taxes in dollars. Further, property taxes for example are independent of your income stream. As owning land creates a liability, but land in no way creates money from thin air.

People do transactions in USD specifically because they need to pay taxes in USD not the other way around. Thus, these transactions are simply a multiplayer on top of the Tax demand.

Re: Bitcoin and almost every other cryptocurrency crashed hard today

#340

Post by agarden » Fri, Dec 22, 2017, 5:10 PM UTC

matte_black wrote: post #299

agarden wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I were convinced the apocalypse were going to happen in the next couple years, I would start storing up ramen noodles, Hersheys chocolate bars, and M&Ms. Cheap to purchase, easy to store, and likely to have astronomic value post-apocalypse.

Those items have little to no nutritional value. I recommend rice and beans instead.

That would be rational. I am assuming that even in a post-apocalyptic scenario, people will not be rational. I imagine people being willing to pay an awful lot for the experience of tasting M&Ms again and for a few brief moments being able to pretend that everything is just like it used to be.

Though now that you point it out, maybe I would rather buy rice and beans so that I could be more useful to people, rather than just maximizing profit. Or better yet, stock up on both kinds of goods.