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Britain is, and was, deluded about its negotiating power with the EU

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Re: Britain is, and was, deluded about its negotiating power with the EU

#91

Post by orwin »

dahdum wrote: post #83
toyg wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's also a TRAGEDY for the EU. Lol, this is something only the British press peddles. Across Europe the overwhelming feeling, for people without UK interests, is of relief . Finally they got rid of a recalcitrant member, the main opponent to "ever closer union" projects, the leader of the free-trade gang that is now in ruins (also embodied in the attacks on Ireland and Luxembourg tax affairs, the harshness on Pola…

I'm not in the UK or EU, so I don't know what the mood is or have opinions about how the vote was conducted. But most economists I've read are not bullish on the EU doing better after Brexit, and it seems like "leave" parties have been coming to power over the past year. Is that view so incorrect?

No its not, UK leave reduce EU negociating power, and isn't good overall. On the other hand, EU does not lose a lot of specialized workers with UK leave, so it will have little impact on industries (maybe in biotech and in finance). A German leave, on the other hand, would destroy EU economy.

Grandparent is right however, in France, most people see that as a good thing (i don't).

Re: Britain is, and was, deluded about its negotiating power with the EU

#92

Post by doktrin »

temp-dude-87844 wrote: post #84

It's truly ironic (and unfortunate) that the UK's tribulations to leave the EU have such close parallels to its difficulties joining its predecessor. In many ways, it demonstrates the weakness (both now and then) of the British economy and (peaceful) political force projection when pit against a united continental core -- led then by France and Germany, nowadays by Germany and France. The UK has much more military le…

The UK may be one of the only European countries to take military spending seriously, but attempting to leverage that advantage in any kind of "direct" manner would probably backfire. Aside from lacking the political will to actually press the issue, they're not really that superior to their neighbors :

https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail....

Note that France's GFP rank is technically higher than the UK's. This obviously ignores certain intangibles, and I personally would put higher stock in the British armed services than in any continental military - but the fact remains that they're not head and shoulders above the rest. They're not the US with its unquestionable military superiority, and they're not even China who enjoy massive military (and economic) asymmetry vis a vis their neighbors.

I do tend to think that UK military capabilities could be a valuable negotiating tool, particularly in uncertain times and in the face of (or fear of) potential Russian aggression - but I honestly don't see how they could successfully bully their way to a favorable resolution.

Re: Britain is, and was, deluded about its negotiating power with the EU

#94

Post by ravloony »

unchocked wrote: post #23

Delusions are hard to get rid of. Leave campaigned on lies, voters swallowed them, and the government is now bound to try and live by those lies. Like all delusions, this will continue to entrench itself against reason. When the negotiators fail to reach their delusional goal, the deluded will formulate a conspiracy narrative to protect their delusion.

I don't subscribe to this at all. I think that the better explanation is that the people who are negotiating with the EU are, almost to a man, convinced EU-philes (for want of a better word). And so they favour the EU position in the negociations, instead of just implementing the will of the people.

Re: Britain is, and was, deluded about its negotiating power with the EU

#95

Post by temp-dude-87844 »

doktrin wrote: post #92
temp-dude-87844 wrote: post #84

It's truly ironic (and unfortunate) that the UK's tribulations to leave the EU have such close parallels to its difficulties joining its predecessor. In many ways, it demonstrates the weakness (both now and then) of the British economy and (peaceful) political force projection when pit against a united continental core -- led then by France and Germany, nowadays by Germany and France. The UK has much more military le…

The UK may be one of the only European countries to take military spending seriously, but attempting to leverage that advantage in any kind of "direct" manner would probably backfire. Aside from lacking the political will to actually press the issue, they're not really that superior to their neighbors : https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.... Note that France's GFP rank is technically higher t…

The classic way to engage in peaceful force projection is to do something drastic but oriented inward, with international implications, and implicitly challenge the world to do something about it. One way would be to institute unilateral border restrictions not unlike the ones just passed in the US.

Other states would balk at such a move, and talks of sanctions would likely follow, but the UK will have proven that they can throw their weight around, framing the narrative to ostensibly take their national interest over a supranational body. Since no one is willing to escalate beyond diplomatic and economic punishment, they will get their way.

Re: Britain is, and was, deluded about its negotiating power with the EU

#96

Post by tremon »

jstanley wrote: post #90
Anderkent wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It works on reciprocity. If you never consider disallowing trade with some countries, you cannot use it as an argument when negotiating access to other country markets; and so you open yourself to exploitation via dues etc. And maybe if no one hindered trade in any way, everyone would be better; but you have no ability to decide what everyone does - only what you do yourself. Plus, there's actual reasons to think com…

But we have open unhindered and uninspected trade within countries, and we don't have out-of-control human trafficking within countries. Why is it different just because it crosses an imaginary line drawn on a map?

If you really believe that trade within your country is unhindered and uninspected, then I fear that you are one of the deluded. There are quality controls in every aspect of your life, even if they're mostly invisible to you.

Although, if the British public really want the 2013 horse meat scandal and the 2017 Grenfell Tower disaster to become the norm rather than the exception, I guess now is the time to seize the opportunity.

Re: Britain is, and was, deluded about its negotiating power with the EU

#97

Post by doktrin »

temp-dude-87844 wrote: post #95
doktrin wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK may be one of the only European countries to take military spending seriously, but attempting to leverage that advantage in any kind of "direct" manner would probably backfire. Aside from lacking the political will to actually press the issue, they're not really that superior to their neighbors : https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.... Note that France's GFP rank is technically higher t…

The classic way to engage in peaceful force projection is to do something drastic but oriented inward, with international implications, and implicitly challenge the world to do something about it. One way would be to institute unilateral border restrictions not unlike the ones just passed in the US. Other states would balk at such a move, and talks of sanctions would likely follow, but the UK will have proven that th…

> Since no one is willing to escalate beyond diplomatic and economic punishment, they will get their way.

I don't follow. Isn't the objective to avoid economic punishment? What happens when the EU just says "ok, tough beans" and matches the UK's restrictions while closing off ties? Sounds like a great way for the UK to be left twiddling their thumbs with little to show for all the effort.

Also, the US comparison is mislead IMO. The US doesn't depend on Yemen the way the UK depends on the EU. Moreover, note the conspicuous absence of Saudi Arabia from the travel ban : even the world's hegemon can't completely ignore economic realities.

Re: Britain is, and was, deluded about its negotiating power with the EU

#98

Post by ubersoldat2k7 »

1undo wrote: post #20
marze wrote: post #3

Why can’t the U.K. just leave? Say we are gone, we are not giving you any money, and unilaterally state a position on trade terms? I realize this may sound naive, but I’m just curious.

The European Union wants to maintain centralized power. A Country like the UK leaving weakens their authority. Meanwhile the uk wants to remain sovereign, but doesn't want to lose the benefits of the EU. Its essentially a power play. Freedom is the better choice imo

Actually, the other way around. Without the UK blocking many integration policies, the EU will have an easier road ahead to approve them, like military, legal and tax integration.

Re: Britain is, and was, deluded about its negotiating power with the EU

#99

Post by seorphates »

tremon wrote: post #87
Myrmornis wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, it wasn't a very trollish comment. Certainly not bigoted, unless it has been edited since you commented! Would you like to revise that description? Another explanation of the young account phenomenon would be that there is nowadays a larger proportion of people who read the site without accounts and therefore that more comments are from first-time commenters. Perhaps certain types of stories attrac…

Regardless of how you want to label it, it wasn't a very convincing argument either. It had zero substance, didn't ask any questions, nor did it try to further the discussion. I think I can fully represent the post with a single vocalization: "nuh-uh".

And that justifies the remainder of the thread existing how, exactly?

Re: Britain is, and was, deluded about its negotiating power with the EU

#100

Post by interdrift »

ZenoArrow wrote: post #80
interdrift wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again, not true. Voting percentage was - 1. Majority leave in poor areas 2. Majority leave in the older population. 3. London voted remain. Reasons? We all know the reasons, and I'm not even going to go into the superiority complex that these people have.

> "We all know the reasons" Do we? Are you getting your information from the mainstream media? Are you aware of how much they distort the facts to suit their own narratives? Why do you think Brexit would be any different?

Does it matter? Britain wants to leave the EU. I know what the EU represents and what it doesn't. That's enough.
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