What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World • Hacker News Board

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#361

Post by RightMillennial » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 5:46 PM UTC

digi_owl wrote: post #257

mschuster91 wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if the charging times are rapidly decreased Charging times have an upper bound: physics. 250 kW is an insane amount of power and still you'd need around half an hour to fill a 100 kWh battery, to get even close to the 5-10 minutes of charging like at a gas station you'd need megawatts of peak power... and as there are two steps of conversions involved (grid => HVDC => battery voltage), even with 99% efficiency you…

If the range is enough, stopping to charge up for 30 mins means one can also grab a bite to eat. My parents took us kids on car trips during summer holidays, and usually by the time we needed to stop to refuel the car we also took the time to eat and such.

A problem is not everyone wants to wait half an hour for every charge on a long distance trip. If I'm driving 12 hours, I want to get to my destination with minimal interruption. Having to wait 30+ minutes for each of the 2+ refuelings would be a pain and add a considerable amount of time to the already lengthy trip. I'd avoid that pain point if that's the choice.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#362

Post by erikpukinskis » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 5:58 PM UTC

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #340

tomxor wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes i agree, it's all timing. My comment is in response to the current state of the EV market. > The general prediction is for the total-cost-of-ownership to be lower in the next few years, and for the upfront price to be lower a few years after that. I think upfront price is more important than most people think. The problem with the "total cost of ownership" argument is it ignores the fact that money now is worth f…

Not only do TCO's already include the time value of money, there's multiple business models around taking monthly payments from EV owners equal to their usual monthly gas usage minus monthly electric usage which lets people pay as they save so the prices are more directly comparable.

Mobility services will solve a lot of that. Not only do you spread the initial investment across all customers, you also spread out maintenance and depreciation, while getting economies of scale in fleet management.

I have a hard time imagining a fleet of electric Google self driving cars being more expensive per mile than even the cost of gasoline.

Of course gas will go down to $2 to try to compete, but they’re fighting physics.

Mobility services also have some unique benefits: you can get a 2 seater or a 7 seater or whatever you want for each trip. You can do one-way rides. You can be on your phone. You can be ill/injured, etc.

I just don’t see how an owned ICE can compare unless you are an ICE enthusiast.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#363

Post by elihu » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 5:59 PM UTC

mikestew wrote: post #342

ajuc wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I meant do away with the batteries at the charging station, not the batteries in the car.

I was more pointing out that with current panels, putting panels on the car isn’t a good idea.

The way I look at it, putting panels on the car is a good idea (because it reduces the need to charge frequently for people who don't drive long distances regularly) that sounds like a bad idea (because the power from panels is so much less than the power requirements of the car while it's running) that sounds like a good idea (hey, why not get energy for free!).

Not everyone will benefit or care about charging their car a few less times per year and adding panels will cost more, add weight, and probably change the appearance of the car, but I think it's an option worth exploring.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#364

Post by Decade » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 6:01 PM UTC

explainplease wrote: post #149

craigds wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We'll find a way though, after some pain. Maybe we'll just become less mobile, and be okay with that. Denser housing and more distributed community hubs seem the obvious solution. The harder question is how would you get from here to a world without cars in the first place. There are some pretty massive political and social hurdles to overcome. I don't think this will happen until we basically run out of fuel, unfort…

> Maybe we'll just become less mobile, and be okay with that. This is bizarre. Is there any other technology, any other quality-of-life issue, in which people would advocate or settle for regression? Technology is advancing faster than ever before, the pace is still increasing--yet people are saying that we should go back to not having personal vehicles, not travelling much... What's going on here?

It is not a regression if that way of life was not sustainable.

http://www.businessinsider.com/strong-towns-growth-ponzi-sch...

But most urbanists and community groups aren’t interested in the big-picture finances. They’re concerned with on-the-ground experience, and the personal car is not essential to it. Technology is providing car sharing and ride sharing for short distances, and airplanes for long distances. Just-in-time global supply chains that make tropical fruit affordable in the neighborhood grocery store, also provide anything else in the world to my doorstep. Emission control technology and tree plantings make urban life sometimes less polluted than rural life.

We live great lives without personal cars, and we don’t want to be forced into legacy environments that require cars.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#365

Post by jdietrich » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 6:03 PM UTC

rangersanger wrote: post #348

jdietrich wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric cars have the potential to be a key part of the solution to load management on a fully renewable grid. The vast majority of people will usually charge overnight and don't need to regularly charge at peak times. Through intelligent charger management, you can distribute the load of charging across the entire off-peak period. The UX for this can be fairly straightforward - by default you charge at the cheapest…

A potential issue I see with this is the fact that some people need to get to and from work during hours that would prohibit them from charging at off-peak hours. Night-shift jobs tend to be on the lower end of the pay scale (though there may be a bonus for taking that awful shift compared to their day-time peers.) So there is an opportunity for some regressiveness in this scheme.

As we move towards renewable generation, the shape of the peak and off-peak periods will start to change. In the southern states, you might see very flat pricing, as higher consumption during the day is offset by higher generation from photovoltaic sources.

We will see far more volatile supply, because of the less reliable output of renewable sources. Supply and demand need to be perfectly balanced at all times to prevent brownouts or outages. Balancing supply and demand will become more challenging as we start to take fossil fuel generators offline. This is where smart grid management becomes vital.

EVs could adjust their charging rate in real-time, drawing maximum current when prices are low and discharging at a high rate when prices spike. Smart air conditioning units and refrigerators could respond to pricing on a minute-by-minute basis, running their compressors when electricity is a fraction of a cent cheaper and allowing the temperature to drift upwards by a fraction of a degree when prices are slightly higher. Industrial consumers could pause energy-intensive processes when prices are high and store power locally in battery, pumped water or thermal storage when prices are low.

A slightly extreme example from the UK is the notorious TV pickup. We drink lots of tea and use 3kW electric kettles to make it. During the commercial break in popular TV programmes, there's a surge in demand that often reaches hundreds of megawatts as millions of people simultaneously switch their kettles on. The national grid employ a dedicated team to manage these rapid demand spikes. They study the TV schedules and continuously monitor the grid frequency, turning on extra generation capacity and drawing from pumped-water storage to balance the extra demand. With smart grid technology, the TV pickup could be automatically managed through a real-time market.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demand_response

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TV_pickup

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#366

Post by greglindahl » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 6:07 PM UTC

mschuster91 wrote: post #309

kurthr wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, charging is greater than 10mph at 16A (typical dryer load). If you drive 40mi (1hr commute?) each way and only charge at home, you can charge in the 8 hours between 11pm and 7am.

Yeah but the load peak when everyone arrives home/at work is what's dangerous for the grid. Even 10k cars at only 10 kW of charging power are a peak load of 100 MW. 100k cars are 1GW - which means the city of Munich with 700k cars has a load potential of 7GW at the minimum. Either we get a grid that's intelligent enough to balance stuff out or the grid has to be built out with massive reserves, and that's everything…

Today's electric cars already have the ability to delay the start of charging. It doesn't need that smart of a grid, just a smartphone app.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#367

Post by mikestew » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 6:10 PM UTC

elihu wrote: post #363

mikestew wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was more pointing out that with current panels, putting panels on the car isn’t a good idea.

The way I look at it, putting panels on the car is a good idea (because it reduces the need to charge frequently for people who don't drive long distances regularly) that sounds like a bad idea (because the power from panels is so much less than the power requirements of the car while it's running) that sounds like a good idea (hey, why not get energy for free!). Not everyone will benefit or care about charging their…

hey, why not get energy for free!)

Because that energy isn’t free. Panels cost money, the electronics to get it to the batteries cost money, and increased complexity cost money. You won’t get a sunroof. Those black panels that are specifically designed to optimize the absorption of the sun’s energy will absorb heat.

All so I can get an extra four miles (on a good day) of range after sitting in the sun all day. I’m not going to go as far as to say it’s a dumb idea, but it sure is hell isnt a good one with current technology.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#368

Post by greglindahl » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 6:10 PM UTC

visarga wrote: post #275

mschuster91 wrote: post #213

Biggest problem I guess will be expanding the charger network, simply due to physics. On the country side, laying cables for 1MW peak load (4 superchargers @ 250 kW) will be expensive - the grid in rural areas is enough for some farms and small villages, that's it. In cities, electric-car chargers will have to deal with political obstacles (no one wants to sacrifice free-for-all parking spots!), in addition to the el…

How do street mounted charging ports cope with rain, snow and dirt? Is there a risk of electrocution?

There are places that have charging stations built into streetlights.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#369

Post by wellboy » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 6:11 PM UTC

walshemj wrote: post #165

kuro68k wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really a problem. Putting chargers in every space in a car park is pretty cheap, they are basically just circuit breakers or even just ordinary domestic style sockets. Throw in a few fast ones for the people who need them and you are sorted. The fast chargers can be multi-head too, so even if someone finishes charging and doesn't come back someone else can still use it. Most rapid chargers are like that. Also, if…

no because carparks don't have the electrical power availed to support charging hundreds or cars at at a time - they will have enough to run the lights but not enough to service hundreds of high amperage car chargers

They won't need to charge hundreds of cars immediately.

When car parks need to charge hundreds of cars at a time, it will be proditable for them to they will build power providing structures.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#370

Post by ecpottinger » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 6:11 PM UTC

civilitty wrote: post #316

tomxor wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes i agree, it's all timing. My comment is in response to the current state of the EV market. > The general prediction is for the total-cost-of-ownership to be lower in the next few years, and for the upfront price to be lower a few years after that. I think upfront price is more important than most people think. The problem with the "total cost of ownership" argument is it ignores the fact that money now is worth f…

This fact is very easy to forget for most of us here, given the salaries in tech. When you're working multiple jobs or are underemployed and trying to support a family, each dollar is some suffering you can alleviate or a problem you can solve now and that is much more important than long term investment. You can't invest if you can't even guarantee that you can feed yourself for long enough to benefit from it.

On the other-hand, I have seen lots of people who do not have high incomes spend money on luxuriates that make them feel good but the money would be better being invested into something else in the long run.

I am not talking about poor people bringing something into their life to feel good about, I am talking about people who could save thousands of dollars over three months to a year but instead spend on things like EXTRA flat screen TVs, the latest Iphone while they are still under contract to the old one, vacations where they stay in the more expensive rooms, etc.

Many times in talking to them I notice they don't spend the time to do the research on where they should spend the money so they often spend more than me for the same thing and way, way too often demand they want something now.

Example: My landlady was going to sign for a new furnace for her second rental (Installation charge+ $89 a month for the next 5 years), I talked her out of it and it turned out to just need a $50 new motor + installation charge $100).

Last week she had no sound, she wanted to buy a new computer. I backed up her files, used the install partition and reconnected her internet and email.

But she thought no sound means you have to buy a new computer!