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Bubble?
Continuous QE spilled in everything else, assets, stocks, latest is crypto. At some point, math kicks in and it will have to reset. Coincidentally, why else do you think Trump is trying to bring everything back home? Note: I am not from the USA and am not trying to start a political argument here. It's merely a macroeconomy observation.
As it so happens, I just created a brand new company. We have no idea what we're going to do, or how we're going to monetize it. But we're definitely going to use blockchain technology. If you are having any doubts, we are willing to provide a brand new coin linked to our company in lieu of stock to assuage any concerns you may have about securing your investment. Who's ready to throw money at us? /sarcasm
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Continuous QE spilled in everything else, assets, stocks, latest is crypto. At some point, math kicks in and it will have to reset. Coincidentally, why else do you think Trump is trying to bring everything back home? Note: I am not from the USA and am not trying to start a political argument here. It's merely a macroeconomy observation.
Could you expand on your thoughts for Trump trying to bring everything back home? Genuinely curious what your thoughts are and not from a political stand point :) Thanks.
There are ups and downs. The bigger the up, the uglier the down (1999 vs 2007).Money gets flooded and scooped (interest rates are as much proactive as reactive).
Inflation is aimed at 2-3% because that's what people ignore but it keeps this fable called money going for all (rich get richer, the poor get regular inflation based raises, all is happy).
Credit cycles are a thing, but can be extended by injecting money in the system (as long as nobody objects, inflation is near 3%, and interest rates are reasonable).
Bailouts work up to an extent, at some point (because I can't draw charts) the math catches up, and heavily QE will become worthless, this risking inflation or deflation. No matter the outcome, one or the other must happen, or like the Bank of Japan, the government starts buying bonds and stocks with it just to keep the pretense money are still worth something.
Based on the above (and I'm aware the story is longer and somewhat with more details) USA has a way to go for a complete endgame.
However, the money flooded so far in the system, are bigger than ever, and the next down will be probably more ugly than ever.
So, when it's ugly it's somewhat benefitial if people can get some sort of jobs.
With all the assumptions from above, and it really doesn't look like from here that Trump came with the idea (he would be boasting). He's doing what any sane central bank will do. So he's told what to do, and believes it's overall the right thing.
- Make sure outsourced jobs vanish. It will cost businesses now, but maybe if they get awesome tax cut, they won't complain.
- NAFTA will probably go away, Americans will get to do stuff that free trade did. If employment on domestic grounds is good (and not in the service industry, but factories and stuff), when it gets bad, people (or a bigger fraction of them) will have jobs, compared to if the service sector is doing great now.
- Based on the continuous QE volume, the next credit cycle will be the worst.
- If I had to guess, tech stocks will crater the worst. So all related tech visas will also go.
- He repealed Obama care, because in a recessions, most people won't have health care, but won't pay penalties. Not having it, is horible, but the population seems somewhat adjusted to the idea of not having health care ( and a revolution hasn't started over that so far, so they can do that).
Related reading: USA losing the Petro dollar. Bitcoin being worse than the tech stocks and cratering more. China bonds being risky right now. That report from IBS (October?) where they wrote that china/India are fully integrated in the world labour and main growth stopped, wages will restart going up after two decades. Upcoming Australia's housing crash (because resource export stalled, and other factors). Interest rates raising again, so other overextended housing markets will get corrected (starting with Canada, UK, Sweden).
The world economy is complex and it's all fluid all the time, but at this point, this how it looks to me.
Apologies for the length.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Continuous QE spilled in everything else, assets, stocks, latest is crypto. At some point, math kicks in and it will have to reset. Coincidentally, why else do you think Trump is trying to bring everything back home? Note: I am not from the USA and am not trying to start a political argument here. It's merely a macroeconomy observation.
Crypto is not 'Murican bubble, its global to an extent, and has massive footprint in Europe and Asia (esp. East Asia).
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Continuous QE spilled in everything else, assets, stocks, latest is crypto. At some point, math kicks in and it will have to reset. Coincidentally, why else do you think Trump is trying to bring everything back home? Note: I am not from the USA and am not trying to start a political argument here. It's merely a macroeconomy observation.
Even in case of bubble, the market seems to take a temporary hit and rise even stronger.
It will rise stronger if you are in your 20s-40s, not if you are 60+ and planning to retire.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It gets him votes, part of the "make 'merica great again" propaganda. In other news, he and his relatives will continue to outsource where ever they can.
I realize you aren't OP but I do understand the "making America great again" getting him votes by saying he's bringing back jobs. However, that's a political response that deflects from the real issues at hand. What I am curious about is the quantitative easing we witnessed due to the 2008 Financial & Housing crisis and how that is being handled both in the economy and the governments around the world. The Fed intere…
Now that USA is playing a different game the rest will probably follow that too.
It's just that the USA is ahead of the game again.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Could you expand on your thoughts for Trump trying to bring everything back home? Genuinely curious what your thoughts are and not from a political stand point :) Thanks.
Sure. Keep in mind I'm not an expert. I also have to write some assumptions first, I apologize for the length. There are ups and downs. The bigger the up, the uglier the down (1999 vs 2007).Money gets flooded and scooped (interest rates are as much proactive as reactive). Inflation is aimed at 2-3% because that's what people ignore but it keeps this fable called money going for all (rich get richer, the poor get regu…
Sometimes it's good to get a completely different view on things as the rhetoric within the US has been quite negative towards Trump (potentially well deserved) without much discussion around the quantitative easing etc but rather just tax cuts for corporations etc.