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Fed, worried about recovery, will buy US debt

finance.yahoo.com

21–30 of 60 posts

Re: Fed, worried about recovery, will buy US debt

#21
post #8

Does this mean the foreigners have lost faith in the US government and stop buying the US debt? The Fed buying US debt is like the left hand buying from the right hand.

No, I believe it has almost nothing to do with foreign investment. (Incidentally, foreigners have awesome faith in the US government, as evidenced by the fact that interest rates are as low as they have ever been, and -- frighteningly -- perhaps as low as they can be.)

No, the government buying its own debt is a very famous accounting trick designed to create more money in the economy. This act is the basis of the fractional reserve system, which in turn is the basis of all modern money.

The Federal Reserve bank buys bonds from bondholders (either newly issued bonds from the government or bonds from my safe deposit box). And in return it puts money in a bank account. Where does the money come from? It is just numbers in a database. The Fed just edits the database. Only the central government, which controls the currency, has the power to create money out of thin air in this way, but that power is very important.

(In other times, when the economy is really hot and inflation is soaring and we need to cool down, the Fed does the opposite: It raises interest rates, which causes people to want to buy bonds to get more interest, which causes people to spend their cash for those bonds. And, as each bond is bought, the Fed just erases the cash from bank accounts. The money vanishes! Remember, money is just a score in a game, the game of "keeping the economy working so that people can eat". It's not made of metal or anything. That was the old way, the way that didn't work.)

You can't get the same effect by selling bonds to England, because then England will pay for the bonds in dollars, and England can't create dollars. They have to buy dollars with pounds. So the total supply of dollars in the world would remain constant, which is not the point of this exercise.

(Now if I really understood econ we could go on to talk about why this little exercise might not work this time, about the "liquidity trap" and the "zero lower bound". But my time is up.)

Re: Fed, worried about recovery, will buy US debt

#22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

oh, no, we're paying less for things. help! the massive housing bubble and it inflationary effects HAD to collapse. those who waited out the insanity deserve lower prices. those who were foolish do not deserve to have the rest of us prop up their property values, although our government is foolishly backing every bad bet out there.

Deflation also pushes people with large home mortgages closer to the brink, as their debt increases in value, and their banks feel pressure to lower their risk exposure by refusing to refinance or renew loans and pushing loan holders to pay down their debts. It has the potential of making the housing crisis much worse for everyone. That's not even getting into what it would do to the commercial real estate market, wh…

> Deflation also pushes people with large home mortgages closer to the brink ... > thas the potential of making the housing crisis much worse for everyone.

The housing "crisis" happened because people were getting large home mortgages. There shouldn't be people with large home mortgages. I interpret "large" here as bigger than they can chew. If they can't afford their home, they can't afford their home -- time to scale down to a small condo or start renting. Why are we proping up people with large home mortgages and rewarding their stupid buying decisions?

Re: Fed, worried about recovery, will buy US debt

#23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

oh, no, we're paying less for things. help! the massive housing bubble and it inflationary effects HAD to collapse. those who waited out the insanity deserve lower prices. those who were foolish do not deserve to have the rest of us prop up their property values, although our government is foolishly backing every bad bet out there.

I'd like to say thank you, stretchwithme, for all of us who saved enough to buy a house, responsibly, in what just happened to be the middle of last decade and now have cause to sell (moving jobs because the economy stinks). We so deserve to seriously be screwed over because of our timing. Thank you US government. Thank you stretchwithme, your sentiments help the situation tremendously. Surprisingly, there were actua…

> who saved enough to buy a house,

If you saved enough to buy a house then live in your house.

If you're moving around then don't buy houses. They are places to live. Your problem is that you want them to be investment vehicles to increase your wealth. Well, if they are investment vehicles then you also have to accept that you will make a bad bet and will lose in value.

You want your cake and eat it too. It is like stock investors crying that Intel shares lost value. Well, then they shouldn't have invested in Intel, they should have put their money in a savings account.

Re: Fed, worried about recovery, will buy US debt

#24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deflation allows personal buying power to increase holding income constant. Deflation is defined as a decrease in prices. You know what else counts as a price? The price of labor. I.e., wages. Average wages decreases under deflation, just like any other price. Deflation is not a magical money machine that makes us all richer.

1.) The US wage stagnation/decline for the last 10-15 years has been caused by globalization of labor/emergence of China/India. It is not a recent phenomenon. 2.) If you think government printing money will increase/steady your wage, look no further then the last bailout/printing. The banks/shareholders got all the money. You got lost wages and lost jobs. On a side note, man, there's alot of sheeples on this board. D…

You're getting downmodded because you're expressing views on economics that are so far off that they "aren't even wrong", and doing them in a way that implies you're smarter than everyone else.

Re: Fed, worried about recovery, will buy US debt

#26
post #8

Does this mean the foreigners have lost faith in the US government and stop buying the US debt? The Fed buying US debt is like the left hand buying from the right hand.

Yes, buying its own debt is basically license to print money. Which will lead to inflation because China isn't going to buy US bonds/debt anymore, which leads to more printing money ... and so on and so forth.

Re: Fed, worried about recovery, will buy US debt

#27
post #8

Does this mean the foreigners have lost faith in the US government and stop buying the US debt? The Fed buying US debt is like the left hand buying from the right hand.

Yes, buying its own debt is basically license to print money. Which will lead to inflation because China isn't going to buy US bonds/debt anymore, which leads to more printing money ... and so on and so forth.

Given that we're already experiencing zero or negative growth, inflation seems like a really good idea, especially since the Fed can stop anytime it wants and begin raising rates.

By the way, this is not just my opinion. Conservative economist Tyler Cowen (who teaches at GMU) also thinks that a little inflation would be helpful: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/02/business/economy/02view.ht...

Re: Fed, worried about recovery, will buy US debt

#28
post #8

Does this mean the foreigners have lost faith in the US government and stop buying the US debt? The Fed buying US debt is like the left hand buying from the right hand.

No, I believe it has almost nothing to do with foreign investment. (Incidentally, foreigners have awesome faith in the US government, as evidenced by the fact that interest rates are as low as they have ever been, and -- frighteningly -- perhaps as low as they can be.) No, the government buying its own debt is a very famous accounting trick designed to create more money in the economy. This act is the basis of the fr…

(Incidentally, foreigners have awesome faith in the US government,...

This could also reflect a lack of faith in other governments rather than faith in the US government. If assorted European debt became 10x more risky but US debt only became 5x more risky, that would cause a flight into US debt.

Re: Fed, worried about recovery, will buy US debt

#29
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1.) The US wage stagnation/decline for the last 10-15 years has been caused by globalization of labor/emergence of China/India. It is not a recent phenomenon. 2.) If you think government printing money will increase/steady your wage, look no further then the last bailout/printing. The banks/shareholders got all the money. You got lost wages and lost jobs. On a side note, man, there's alot of sheeples on this board. D…

You're getting downmodded because you're expressing views on economics that are so far off that they "aren't even wrong", and doing them in a way that implies you're smarter than everyone else.

Please, then tell me why my arguments are wrong. Don't be offended just because you're one of those sheeples that go to work every day that have to withstand long commute and increasing workloads, so that you can be effectively taxed at 70% after inflation.

Re: Fed, worried about recovery, will buy US debt

#30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, buying its own debt is basically license to print money. Which will lead to inflation because China isn't going to buy US bonds/debt anymore, which leads to more printing money ... and so on and so forth.

Given that we're already experiencing zero or negative growth, inflation seems like a really good idea, especially since the Fed can stop anytime it wants and begin raising rates. By the way, this is not just my opinion. Conservative economist Tyler Cowen (who teaches at GMU) also thinks that a little inflation would be helpful: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/02/business/economy/02view.ht...

...Except it couldn't raise rates. Not with trillions of debt needing to be paid back by both government and corporations (hint: there's no way). So the fed will just print and print and print...until the dollar is worthless.
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