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What Bitcoin shows us about how money works

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Re: What Bitcoin shows us about how money works

#2
These are all good points except for the idea that it won't be used like normal money. The speculative environment and price volatility resulting from that, is all by design. The mining incentive creates a "boom" environment to help bootstrap the currency.

Now, a few years later, BTC is blessed by regulators. The next phase of world domination is for the governance model of Bitcoin to start to seem far better than fiat governance models. This is just a matter of time.

Re: What Bitcoin shows us about how money works

#3
post #2

These are all good points except for the idea that it won't be used like normal money. The speculative environment and price volatility resulting from that, is all by design. The mining incentive creates a "boom" environment to help bootstrap the currency. Now, a few years later, BTC is blessed by regulators. The next phase of world domination is for the governance model of Bitcoin to start to seem far better than fi…

That seems like wishful thinking. You might end up in being correct, but I've yet to see firm evidence that suggests that will be the case.

Re: What Bitcoin shows us about how money works

#5
> As we can see from everything above, holding BTC will tend to be very expensive, as large fluctuations can cut your savings in half without warning.

There is no historic trend in which Bitcoin has become "very expensive" to hold long term, especially when compared to other long term asset classes. This fact is due to the price sitting at the top of its value, historically. Large fluctuations in other asset classes may also hold this property, which means it's a common issue with asset speculation, not Bitcoin itself.

This is not to say that Bitcoin's value will not decrease at a future date. It likely will.

This entire article's argument has been heard before. Bitcoin isn't money. It can be used as a currency, but its nature is much, much more than that.

Re: What Bitcoin shows us about how money works

#6
Overall I like the article, but a few points of disagreement:

1. The US dollar has intrinsic value. That intrinsic value is that the US government accepts it as payment for taxes. Regardless of what currency you conduct your business in, the USG accepts its cut only in dollars. That creates intrinsic demand for dollars, and links that intrinsic demand directly to the US GDP.

2. Bitcoin also has intrinsic value. That intrinsic value stems from transaction fees. It costs bitcoin to move bitcoin. International value-transfer is a service that has been around for a long time, and there is a market in it, so we can derive its value (or at the very least, that its value is non-zero) from the existence of demand for that service. Global value transfer has value, the Bitcoin network offers that service, and accepts payment only in Bitcoin. That is intrinsic value.

3. "Yes, this check could fail, but that possibility is still better than Bitcoin’s complete absence of any check on inflation." Bitcoin's core problem is not inflation. It's deflation. A fixed-supply currency is likely to suffer from deflationary spirals and subsequent crashes. I suppose you could call those crashes 'inflation', but that's not generally how the word is used.

4. "So here lies the fundamental difference between the dollar and Bitcoin: The supply of bitcoin is fixed, but the demand is beholden to uncontrollable market forces and speculator whims. That means that unlike the dollar, the value of BTC can never be stable, because there is no means regulate the supply to keep the value consistent from moment to moment.". Yes, that is the standard econ. argument in favor of central banks. It's not a new idea. But the actual evidence for its truth is surprisingly weak. Economies existed long before central banks, and indeed, they did have boom and bust cycles. However, it's not all that clear the central banks have really helped matters much, despite what they would like to think. Now, i'm not a total skeptic of central banking. I think its possible that they're adding some value, but i'm skeptical that it's as much as they think, and that the economy wouldn't find a way to function smoothly without them.

Re: What Bitcoin shows us about how money works

#8
post #3
post #2

These are all good points except for the idea that it won't be used like normal money. The speculative environment and price volatility resulting from that, is all by design. The mining incentive creates a "boom" environment to help bootstrap the currency. Now, a few years later, BTC is blessed by regulators. The next phase of world domination is for the governance model of Bitcoin to start to seem far better than fi…

That seems like wishful thinking. You might end up in being correct, but I've yet to see firm evidence that suggests that will be the case.

How often does one get "firm evidence" about how future human affairs unfold?

Re: What Bitcoin shows us about how money works

#9
> It’s pretty easy to understand that if the government were to suddenly double the number of dollars in circulation, the value of a dollar would go down by approximately half.

Just because it's easy to understand doesn't mean it's correct.

For example, the US money supply more than doubled in the last 10 years, yet the value of a dollar has not halved.

M0 quadrupled in 10 years: https://imgur.com/a/L9mDx

M1 tripled: https://imgur.com/a/AaLNS

M2 doubled: https://imgur.com/a/0RGeQ

Money doesn't work like shares of stock, where a two-for-one split makes each share worth half as much.

Velocity, yield curves, economic growth and exchange rates all get to vote.

If you double the number of dollars "in circulation", it also matters which economic actors hold those extra dollars.

US money supply more than doubled, but the balance in most people's bank accounts and wallets didn't double. The doubling went to actors who didn't spend it, driving velocity down.

This stuff is complicated with many variables. Unfortunately the "easy to understand" version doesn't explain what happens in the real world.

Re: What Bitcoin shows us about how money works

#10
post #8
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems like wishful thinking. You might end up in being correct, but I've yet to see firm evidence that suggests that will be the case.

How often does one get "firm evidence" about how future human affairs unfold?

We quite often get firm evidence, and the evidence turns out to be wrong. But I'm a sceptic, which is why I never bought any Bitcoins for $1 in 2012.
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