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Why you can’t cash out part 1: Bitcoin’s “price” is largely fictional

davidgerard.co.uk

191–200 of 271 posts

Re: Why you can’t cash out part 1: Bitcoin’s “price” is largely fictional

#191

This article is pure FUD with lies. 1) The spread is not "plus or minus $500", it's a lot less. See for yourself: http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD At this particular moment the spread is $23 on Bitstamp, zero on GDAX, $11 on Bitfinex, zero on Kraken, zero on it it (where "zero" is something under a dollar, there's not enough precision to display it). 2) Yes, you can cash out, a lot. There are dozens of huge…

You can’t get dollars out of bitfinex.

Re: Why you can’t cash out part 1: Bitcoin’s “price” is largely fictional

#192
post #77

From the article: “Market cap” [...] is a bogus number that’s not actually applicable to anything — it’s not money that was put into the crypto, it’s not a realisable value like a company market cap. I am not sure what the author means by "realizable". If their intention is to say, "Ok, let's liquidate every single coin for fiat currency... and we expect to have the market-cap equivalent in that currency" Well, whats…

What would you pay to own every single bitcoin? The answer should be nothing --- if you owned all of them, they'd be completely worthless. What would someone pay for all of Apple's stock? Suffice to say, a lot --- because Apple has actual value.

> The answer should be nothing

I don't think the answer is nothing. And there's also a very different dynamic you're proposing in your comment. If I were to go in and buy every BTC out there - the price would probably double/quadruple/whatever... in a short time ('cause its bitcoin!).

If all BTC holders collectively decide to sell, however, the price would most probably collapse. The "value" of bitcoin - or any security for that matter - is determined by the marginal buyer or seller. He or she is the last person to set the price.

There is inherent value in bitcoin. Just like Apple sells phones and other things of value, bitcoin was created for some reasons that you can attach a value to ... I think those initial reasons are not what bitcoin stands for today - which is really a store of wealth. So maybe that is why people are incredulous that this thing has any value at all.

Re: Why you can’t cash out part 1: Bitcoin’s “price” is largely fictional

#193

You can cash out Bitcoin and the price is actually very accurate. The money I see in my bank account is real I can assure you of that. Also I know friends that cash out six figures at a time and the price they get is within less than 1% difference to the last sell price. The number is accurate enough for most orders under $10,000,000. Has this person actually traded Bitcoin? You might not be able to sell a large orde…

Is there a way to verify this somehow? One of the biggest issues in the Bitcoin space seems to be counter party risk with the exchanges.

How do large Bitcoin traders price that risk? With most modern financial exchanges the accounts are open, audited and they’ve had a long time to generate trust with their members so pricing the counter party risk is straight forward.

Re: Why you can’t cash out part 1: Bitcoin’s “price” is largely fictional

#194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Article author actually makes a great point and it stands regardless of your ability to cash out within 1%. Big investors on current markets can whip out huge profits for themselves by using techniques such as front running, wash trades, willybot, spoofing etc. Exchanges are not even prohibited from doing their own secret trades and using their own internal database and full knowledge of all other players. If you are…

> Until then, party on Indeed. Earlier this year, mid-summer, I got curious about all this, so I decided to start an experiment, uploaded $100 to an exchange and started trading and programming against their API. Today, I am running fully automated bots which are winning, got about $25k in exchanges and cashed out about $15 to my bank account (no problem cashing out btw). That's 40000% in 6 month. So all of this is a…

Care to share general outlines of how your bots work?

Re: Why you can’t cash out part 1: Bitcoin’s “price” is largely fictional

#195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would you pay to own every single bitcoin? The answer should be nothing --- if you owned all of them, they'd be completely worthless. What would someone pay for all of Apple's stock? Suffice to say, a lot --- because Apple has actual value.

I think there’s actually a real risk in bitcoin of a few people controlling all of the wealth which makes it a not very fun game to play for anyone else, and makes it hard to justify it as a payments platform.

That's an interesting point - but how is that not unlike our current capitalist system? There was a tweet (posted on HN the other day) that 50% of wealth in Europe is inherited...

Re: Why you can’t cash out part 1: Bitcoin’s “price” is largely fictional

#196
post #4

Why is the fact that arbitrage is harder with btc a disadvantage? And the fact that the "price" reflects recent sales rather than future sales seems, well, obvious, and identical to other securities/commodities.

Arbitrage involves moving large amount of volume and transactions. Arbitrage is not effective on bitcoins because there is too much risk with trading bitcoins.

To reply to your question. The problem is that the bitcoin market is plagued with deep issues. Arbitrage is hard in such an environment, that's the consequence, not a cause.

To make an analogy. Think of a sea, a sea always have fishes. If there are no fishes at all in a sea, the problem is unlikely to be the fishes. Fishes are simple animals living day to day (just like arbitragers). Most likely, the problem is with the sea, maybe it's super polluted and killed all the fishes?

Re: Why you can’t cash out part 1: Bitcoin’s “price” is largely fictional

#197
post #84

Don’t most of the massive cash outs happen off-exchange between two parties agreeing on a price?

yes and no, exchanges like Coin Floor let you pick an amount and price, then auto match buy offers with sale offers. so its technically on the exchange and between two parties.

What about selling a hardware wallet with something like an OpenDime?

Re: Why you can’t cash out part 1: Bitcoin’s “price” is largely fictional

#198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are you buying something that can't support multiple simultaneous buyers?

I only buy things where I won't be unhappy about the price I bought them even if crypto prices decline by 80%. Mostly things with market caps under $20M. The lack of liquidity doesn't bother me. Either the technologies will get real world use and the tokens will get listed on major exchanges, or else they'll go out of business, just like any other tech startup.

How can I find out more about these opportunities?

Re: Why you can’t cash out part 1: Bitcoin’s “price” is largely fictional

#199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Article author actually makes a great point and it stands regardless of your ability to cash out within 1%. Big investors on current markets can whip out huge profits for themselves by using techniques such as front running, wash trades, willybot, spoofing etc. Exchanges are not even prohibited from doing their own secret trades and using their own internal database and full knowledge of all other players. If you are…

> Until then, party on Indeed. Earlier this year, mid-summer, I got curious about all this, so I decided to start an experiment, uploaded $100 to an exchange and started trading and programming against their API. Today, I am running fully automated bots which are winning, got about $25k in exchanges and cashed out about $15 to my bank account (no problem cashing out btw). That's 40000% in 6 month. So all of this is a…

Without knowing your algorithms, is Bitcoin's 2,000% increase this year a heavy factor in your "win" rate. Or, are you confident in your logic that you can grow with a slower market?

Re: Why you can’t cash out part 1: Bitcoin’s “price” is largely fictional

#200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(author here) This is targeted to the general public, who do actually need Finance 101, because they really don't know what they're getting lured into by the mindlessly positive articles and headlines in the mainstream press. Mostly written by people who don't understand either. I actually consider it seriously unethical to market cryptos as an investment to retail investors - they just do not understand the insane l…

But at the end of the day, how is it different from the current equities market? (aside from immature tools and imperfect infrastructure that is just shaping up). Stock market can tank 50% like it did in 2009 (together with the real estate market) and your average investor will be screwed just the same. Even tech and fundamental analysis gurus cannot explain the endless bull market we're on, how is getting lured into…

Investing: http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historica...

Speculating: http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-y...

Which one do you think bitcoin is? Well I'll tell you, it's the second.

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