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E Pur Si Muove

blog.samaltman.com

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Re: E Pur Si Muove

#831
post #789

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[1] had almost 100 citation in its first 3 years, while [2] still has no citation by anyone else other than its author. If [2] really had discredited an entire field of research, I'd imagine that anyone at all would talk about it even once.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum

You are bringing up paper which had literally zero impact in 3 years it's been out. Why should I waste time reading it? Clearly, no scientist who has ever read it has found it worth to even mention it. The burden to show that it is relevant is on you.

Re: E Pur Si Muove

#832

Earlier quoted context omitted.

'Citing science'. I can think of a few other groups throughout history who have said awful things and backed it up with 'science'.

Yeah! Like Stanford Medical School in 2017. http://stanmed.stanford.edu/2017spring/how-mens-and-womens-b...

Thanks for the link

Re: E Pur Si Muove

#833
post #108

I'm extremely aware of this as someone who is socially conservative in terms of abortion, gay marriage, trans issues, etc (seriously not trying to start a flame war). It's weird knowing that a large portion of the country has similar values to me, but in a major city I can never mention these things or I'll immediately become unemployable. It doesn't matter that these things have zero impact on my behavior at work; y…

From my perspective, I don't want to work in an environment where people are voicing their opinion that (e.g.) gay marriage is illegitimate or wrong. How am I supposed to work with someone who thinks a huge part of my life is immoral? I would have an incredibly hard time believing that that person was taking me seriously, really wanted to work with me, wasn't going to undercut me, or trusted me. It's not that you can…

Little late to the discussion so I am not sure this will be seen...

I think I can change two works of your statement and make it a criticism of the Bay Area.

From my perspective, I don't want to work in an environment where people are voicing their opinion that (e.g.) supporting Trump is illegitimate or wrong. How am I supposed to work with someone who thinks a huge part of my life is immoral? I would have an incredibly hard time believing that that person was taking me seriously, really wanted to work with me, wasn't going to undercut me, or trusted me.

It's not that you can't have these opinions or voice them -- but it's also not the case that the people who are most affected by those opinions are going to feel OK about it.

The issue I have with this perspective is that it is not applied equally. I do think you should get protection but I think that same protection should be applied to all groups. Next week I could say in front of my team "All Trump supporters are deranged psychopaths." I would get a few odd looks, my manager might tell my privately to tone it down. If I said the same thing about LQBT folk I would guess I have a 50% chance of being fired.

This feels like a double standard to me and makes me question if the people who support diversity and inclusion really mean it or if they only want what they approve.

Re: E Pur Si Muove

#834

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe that it is a reality that people die through the side affects of political hegemony. I used to be a Jehovah's Witness and am familiar with those outside the religion criticizing it because it frequently occurs that their children die due to the refusal of blood transfusions. However I now think there is a similar type of ignorance which has stemmed out of politically correct thought. I believe biracial chil…

>biracial children have a lower probability of organ donation matches, and a drastically lower probability of bone marrow matches. Sure, but the vast majority of people will never need this in their lifetime. I doubt this alone would make a noticeable dent in life expectancy statistics. (Also we are within a few decades of being able to clone organs anyway.) On the other hand biracial people are believed to have stro…

I don't disagree with anything you've said, but my point remains. Some people are inadvertently dying because of a political consensus view.

I think this occurs in every political system though.

The only route out is to adopt some form of the scientific process combined with metapolitics, seasteading is a hypothetical example.

Re: E Pur Si Muove

#835

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And many possible cultural explanations have been ruled out. You say this, but quote absolutely no science to back it up. Maybe this is just an intuitive perception that you have, rather than a fact? I actually quoted two articles that prove the contrary, and you have no retort for them, but rather just glance over them as if they didn't exist. > Poor and communist countries have less gender disparities because peo…

>You say this, but quote absolutely no science to back it up. Yes I do, and I've been over some of it with you in this thread. >I actually quoted two articles that prove the contrary, and you have no retort for them, but rather just glance over them as if they didn't exist. What, the poor countries have different gender ratios claim? I addressed that. >So you are going against your previous statement and saying here…

> Yes I do, and I've been over some of it with you in this thread.

I looked for all your comments with your name in my history. Not a single one of them links to anything.

> What, the poor countries have different gender ratios claim? I addressed that.

You haven't addressed it, though. You claim it's based on economic growth, yet cite no evidence. In fact, there's plenty of evidence to the contrary: the UK has a bigger (and more advanced) economy than India, and a bigger participation of women in STEM. The same goes for Norway vs. US. In fact, Latin America has a much higher participation when compared with, say, Asia for comparable economic growth.

Even if we take the US in isolation, your claim doesn't hold up: we have grown at a relatively steady pace for the past few decades and more women participate on STEM fields today that they did in the 80s and 90s. If "economic growth" was the one driving factor, you'd see the exact opposite.

Again, are you sure you are putting enough effort into validating your statements? Here are two sets of statistics you might want to consider [1][2]

> How is Russia doing today after a ton of economic growth?

Russia has gone through a huge amount of "Westernization" since the Berlin Wall came down, so trying to make the case that economic growth or cultural shift are 100% to account for the changes is a fool's errand.

> In 2016 Russia had the highest percentage of patents filed by women, at about 16%

What makes you think that patent filings of all things represents industry participation? You have to be careful, you could easily conclude there are no males younger than 24 in a given industry if you used patents filed as your only data source. I think the links I posted above, in particular [2] are a better reference.

[1] https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-inclusive-growth-and-dev...

[2] http://uis.unesco.org/sites/default/files/documents/fs43-wom...

Re: E Pur Si Muove

#836

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Mandatory gender quotas. Those - as far as I understand - don't exist at Google. I interviewed tons of candidates there. I was never told to benefit this person or the next because they were of a particular gender or ethnic background. In fact, there was mandatory training on how to not fall for your own biases. > Women-only lectures, events and benefits. So you are all for "freedom of thought" but you don't want p…

You keep doing this in all the arguments you have in this thread: you ask a question, and then when you get a response you reframe the question. You are being either dishonest or a zealot. > Those - as far as I understand - don't exist at Google. You asked for example of extreme "feminists" opinions that are allowed in the workforce and I gave you some. Also Damore's argument is that google is propping the numbers in…

> You keep doing this in all the arguments you have in this thread: you ask a question, and then when you get a response you reframe the question. You are being either dishonest or a zealot.

Or maybe I'm trying to consider the whole context of a nuanced and complex topic before reaching a conclusion. Dishonest, idiot me for not taking every discrete input as an absolute determinant in order to keep the argument "simple" for your benefit.

> Also Damore's argument is that google is propping the numbers in a way akin to quotas, by jigging the selection process.

Damore does not provide proof of anything like that happening. His biggest gripe is that Google is proactively reaching out to minority groups in order to try to get more candidates from that pool. He also mentions a "high priority queue for diversity hires", but I haven't found any evidence of that and he doesn't provide any.

> (Well, I heard people say that, i haven't read the essay).

So, let me get this straight: you are criticizing my analysis of a manifesto you haven't read (I have), written by someone working at the same company I used to work for (Google) on a topic I have researched quite a bit on my spare time (causes of gender disparity in Tech and other STEM industries). Your criticism is not based on published statistics, academic studies or any other kind of hard evidence, but rather hearsay and anecdata. Wow. That has to be the most Argentine behavior I've seen in a while. La Argentinidad al palo.

> Now you are reframing the question as in a constitutional matter

No I'm not. You cited things that are perfectly legal as examples of "extremist behavior". Damore's behavior was legal too, it was just stupid.

> Man-only corporate events dont exist, and if you called it one, there would also be public outrage. Women-only is actively discriminatory.

It's kind of bizarre that you are trying to paint males as some form of oppressed minority. Have you ever stopped to think why some of these events might want to avoid having males take the spotlight from people trying to discuss something? Maybe it's because they deal with that every day?

> So if a feminist had written the essay, you would agree with it and would find it enlightening? Its a simple ad-hominem.

You attack my supposed ad-hominem, by offering an ad-hominem based on a completely baseless assumption. Meanwhile you complain about me being dishonest. Again... wow.

Re: E Pur Si Muove

#837

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What are you not understanding here? If 20% of qualified applicants are female, but 30% of new hires are female, you must be discriminating against men. Thing is, you don't have these numbers. And you are making them up, to push your narrative. Which is another massive flaw on Damore's argument: he's trying to solve a problem he doesn't even know exists. > Damore suggested they were lowering hiring standards and se…

So, can we at least agree that gender quotas etc are bad?

Sure. I never said they'd be good. There's also no proof they exist, so there's that.

Re: E Pur Si Muove

#838

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I were to attribute malice, I'd say that you are actively avoiding the point I've been making to keep pushing your narrative. The text you quote just says that some behavior might be driven by biological differences. Cool, nobody is arguing that. So what's the point you are trying to make? The point I'm trying to make is that there's enough evidence that culture plays a major role in behavior and so we should mayb…

> The text you quote just says that some behavior might be driven by biological differences. Cool, nobody is arguing that. This is entirely what the outrage for Damore was about. Entirely.

Notice the keywords are "some" and "might". Damore makes a lot of very lofty, all-encompassing claims.

Re: E Pur Si Muove

#839

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You keep doing this in all the arguments you have in this thread: you ask a question, and then when you get a response you reframe the question. You are being either dishonest or a zealot. > Those - as far as I understand - don't exist at Google. You asked for example of extreme "feminists" opinions that are allowed in the workforce and I gave you some. Also Damore's argument is that google is propping the numbers in…

> You keep doing this in all the arguments you have in this thread: you ask a question, and then when you get a response you reframe the question. You are being either dishonest or a zealot. Or maybe I'm trying to consider the whole context of a nuanced and complex topic before reaching a conclusion . Dishonest, idiot me for not taking every discrete input as an absolute determinant in order to keep the argument "sim…

> Or maybe I'm trying to consider the whole context of a nuanced and complex topic before reaching a conclusion. Dishonest, idiot me for not taking every discrete input as an absolute determinant in order to keep the argument "simple" for your benefit.

I'm still not sure if you do this on purpose or not, but you again answer a question that was not asked. I didnt make any conclusion in the previous post, so you are responding some question about conclusions that is not relevant to the context.

> Damore does not provide proof of anything like that happening. His biggest gripe is that Google is proactively reaching out to minority groups in order to try to get more candidates from that pool. He also mentions a "high priority queue for diversity hires", but I haven't found any evidence of that and he doesn't provide any.

I dont work at google, but i have never heard any of the rebuttals or official statements by google saying that it's not true they benefit minorities in their process. In any case, if Damore claimed that was happening and it isn't, then everyone can be happy, because Damore was asking precisely to stop doing that, and noone needs to feel attacked.

>So, let me get this straight: you are criticizing my analysis of a manifesto you haven't read

I think you haven't read my first post at all ,where i start by saying it haven't read it. Talk about accusing people of not reading the source!

> Your criticism is not based on published statistics, academic studies or any other kind of hard evidence, but rather hearsay and anecdata.

My criticism is based on the most classical anecdotal case, that Damore made an essay, there was a shitstorm and he got fired. That was my original topic. I have made no opinion on the contents of the essay , because i haven't read it nor its a topic I find interesting.

> That has to be the most Argentine behavior I've seen in a while.

Thats xenophobic. Bear in mind that if you had made this comment on twitter, you would run the risk of being fired and also become unemployable.

I think this last comment is enough. You sounded sour for a lot of your exchanges, but when you start insulting I lose interest. Hope you enjoyed the conversation.

Re: E Pur Si Muove

#840

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>You say this, but quote absolutely no science to back it up. Yes I do, and I've been over some of it with you in this thread. >I actually quoted two articles that prove the contrary, and you have no retort for them, but rather just glance over them as if they didn't exist. What, the poor countries have different gender ratios claim? I addressed that. >So you are going against your previous statement and saying here…

> Yes I do, and I've been over some of it with you in this thread. I looked for all your comments with your name in my history. Not a single one of them links to anything. > What, the poor countries have different gender ratios claim? I addressed that. You haven't addressed it, though. You claim it's based on economic growth, yet cite no evidence. In fact, there's plenty of evidence to the contrary: the UK has a bigg…

Your hypothesis doesn't explain the data any better than mine. Would you really predict the Arab states, with their incredibly progressive views on feminism, to have higher percentage of female researchers? It really isn't weird to you that Russia, in just 20 years, went back to the same levels of everyone else after all the "progress" they made? Cultures don't change that quickly.

The statistics are nearly useless anyway because of how differently they are measured. Women are much more represented in "soft sciences" like biology. But in math etc, the percentage has been pretty consistent. Math majors show a huge increase in women. But when you dig into it, it turns out that they are going into it to become math teachers. And the actual percentage of female Math researchers is the lowest of all of STEM. And pretty consistent through time. And our culture has changed a hell of a lot.

Why is it so implausible to you that it's biology? You want some links and statistics? Try reading this: http://www.sci-hub.la/10.1111/j.1751-9004.2010.00320.x

>gender differences on the people–things dimension of interests are ‘very large’ (d= 1.18), with women more people-oriented and less thing-oriented than men. Gender differences in personality tend to be larger in gender-egalitarian societies than in gender- inegalitarian societies, a finding that contradicts social role theory but is consistent with evolution- ary, attributional, and social comparison theories. In contrast, gender differences in interests appear to be consistent across cultures and over time, a finding that suggests possible biologic influences.

d=1.18 is one of the largest effect sizes I've seen in a social science. It means something like 93% of men are more "thing oriented" than the average woman.

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