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The Collapse of Complex Business Models (2010)

shirky.com

11–20 of 26 posts

Re: The Collapse of Complex Business Models (2010)

#11
Shirky cites Joseph Tainter. If you want to hear from Tainter directly, which is the podcast that has kept me up at night, listen to this:

podcast (en) – omega tau science & engineering podcast 184 – Societal Complexity and Collapse

https://overcast.fm/+HPTgN-4U

Tainter's book on Amazon (no affiliate link): http://a.co/hDAtqpU

Re: The Collapse of Complex Business Models (2010)

#12

Man I miss the hell out of Clay Shirky writing stuff on a blog. He barely even posts on Twitter. I guess he had the book about the Chinese smartphone company in 2015 https://www.amazon.com/Little-Rice-Smartphones-Xiaomi-Chines... .. but nothing else of note? It's hard to tell what he's up to these days, but I sorely miss his blog writing.

He left NYU Shanghai earlier this year to move back to NYU Manhattan.

Re: The Collapse of Complex Business Models (2010)

#13
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, obviously true in terms of finite time in the day. I think the total time is actually increasing (although up to a finite point) but the main point is that it's more of a transition from linear/cable/sat/ads to VOD/OTT/mobile as the primarily factor that the large companies have to manage, rather than heaving losses in time spent on complex (high budget professional content) vs non-complex (user generated). To i…

> I can't imagine that 5 years from now I'll be watching 1 minute viral videos all evening instead of professionally produced long form content. What's the youngest person you have the chance to observe the evening routine of? Both my girlfriend and my sister will go to bed every evening, pull out their phone, and spend an hour watching 1 minute short viral videos on Instagram, Facebook, and Snapchat. Endless stream.…

Definitely a good point, although it might be a reflection of high budget long form content reflecting interests of older people more than younger generations, and as they grow into being more represented at the professional tiers (which takes years of experience) they'll produce new shows that reflect their values and interests.

In terms of younger audiences though there is also huge success with high budget animation. Pixar's success over time still seems more tied to quality of each film rather than declining consistently over time due to loss of interest in the format itself.

For news, 100% agree, ripe for disruption from social media (or at least web over cable news) although that is obviously facing new challenges in terms of reliability (i.e. Facebook/Twitter re election).

Re: The Collapse of Complex Business Models (2010)

#14
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I can't imagine that 5 years from now I'll be watching 1 minute viral videos all evening instead of professionally produced long form content. What's the youngest person you have the chance to observe the evening routine of? Both my girlfriend and my sister will go to bed every evening, pull out their phone, and spend an hour watching 1 minute short viral videos on Instagram, Facebook, and Snapchat. Endless stream.…

Definitely a good point, although it might be a reflection of high budget long form content reflecting interests of older people more than younger generations, and as they grow into being more represented at the professional tiers (which takes years of experience) they'll produce new shows that reflect their values and interests. In terms of younger audiences though there is also huge success with high budget animati…

The trend I've seen on Snapchat is high budget high quality production of 1 minute viral videos. Think NatGeo documentary, but delivered as 5 20second videos with captions.

Similar to how a lot of high budget production moved from making 3 hour movies, to making 10 1 hour episodes. Overall more and better content, but in smaller easier to digest pieces.

I think that's a trend that isn't going away. People, especially as they age, have less and less time to stick to one thing. If you can cut it up for them and make it nibbleable, they will go for it.

When was the last time you chose to watch a full movie at home in one sitting? I bet you watch Netflix series instead, or pause your movie and continue the next day.

Re: The Collapse of Complex Business Models (2010)

#16
To pick a couple of examples more or less at random, last year Barry Diller of IAC said, of content available on the web, “It is not free, and is not going to be,” Steve Brill of Journalism Online said that users “just need to get back into the habit of doing so [paying for content] online”, and Rupert Murdoch of News Corp said “Web users will have to pay for what they watch and use.”

Was that dog whistling the repeal of net neutrality?

Re: The Collapse of Complex Business Models (2010)

#19

"In a bureaucracy, it’s easier to make a process more complex than to make it simpler, and easier to create a new burden than kill an old one." He should have lead with this.

One fun experiment would be for a company to place all it's middle managers on gardening leave. For a year. Give them the same ability to influence as that of a very minority shareholder (i.e. none).

Then see how the bottom line fares. I see three outcomes:

  1. Profits are down. Those managers added value after all.
  2. Profits about the same. Those managers added nothing.
  3. Profits up!! Those managers were dragging them down the whole time. Who knew?
Letting highly paid employees go is, of course, expensive. But in 2 out of those 3 scenarios the company can afford to simply keep them on gardening leave indefinitely.
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