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Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’

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Re: Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’

#201

Post by Akujin »

ceejayoz wrote: post #191
mrb wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This chart shows nothing interesting and is hardly scientific. Of course by lining up price charts of various speculative bubbles they will roughly line up. The chart also intentially discards the first 4 years of Bitcoin trading data (2010-2013) where Bitcoin has actually gained the most. None of the other assets in the chart even remotely compare to Bitcoin's gains in these 4 years. Also, it should really use a log…

> The chart also intentially discards the first 4 years of Bitcoin trading data (2010-2013) where Bitcoin has actually gained the most. Sure, just like the comment being replied to discards several hundred years worth of tulip sales to say "Tulipmania lasted 6 months. Bitcoin is now 8 years old." Bitcoin has, until this year, largely escaped widespread public notice beyond "isn't this odd/interesting" pieces in the m…

For hacker news I expect people to be a lot smarter but apparently no one in the entire thread realized I said Tulipmania. Not Tulips.

Tulips as a financial instrument were only used for 6 months.

Here's a fucking chart since you can't be bothered to look it up: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania#/media/File:Tulip_...

From November 12th through May 1st. Almost exactly 6 months. Period.

Counting anything outside of this period as part of Tulipmania is not only ignorant but also plain stupid at face value.

I'm not one for making hyperbolic statements but when people can't read there's really no other explanation other than: - You lack reading comprehension. - You're below average (hey not everyone is smart, it's okay).

Bitcoin is now on it's FOURTH bubble.

Tulipmania never had a 2nd or 3rd or 4th bubble.

Re: Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’

#202

Post by TheCowboy »

vasilipupkin wrote: post #158

Unless you have any predictive insight about when a bubble going to burst, it's essentially a meaningless term. Specifically, I mean, it doesn't tell you anything about what you should do. Suppose Bitcoin is a bubble but it won't burst until 2152. Well, in that case, I should buy it. If it's about to burst in the next few months to few years, then perhaps I should sell it. If you can't tell me when, then you can call…

There's a fallacy in there somewhere. It's like telling me that calling something gambling is a meaningless term because I can't tell you exactly when you will lose your money playing craps. I don't know exactly when. There's a random factor involved. There's even a chance you might come out ahead.

The fact that you don't know when it will burst is just one problem with bubbles. You don't know if it will be 2152 or now. If you know it is a bubble because of a strong irrationally motivated valuation but still buy in, then you are gambling on not "if" but "when" the bottom will fall out.

Re: Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’

#203

Post by Akujin »

beering wrote: post #137
darkstar999 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the bitcoin mania has only been going on within the past year.

There were at least two previous Bitcoin manias and bubbles. I remember a lot of hype when it hit $70 (from single-digit prices), and then again when it hit $1000. Both times people said it was a bubble, and then the bubble popped.

The worst part of all of this Bitcoin speculation is that you have someone like the person you're replying to get on and talk out of their ass. Literally. And then they are the ones getting upvoted cause all the haters love to talk to trash with zero intellectual honesty.

This is actually bubble #4. Here's an analysis of the previous 3: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@huku/bitcoin-bubbles-a-brief-hi...

Re: Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’

#204

Post by Akujin »

pasquinelli wrote: post #45
Akujin wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tulipmania lasted 6 months. Bitcoin is now 8 years old. Stop comparing Bitcoin to flowers. It's not even close to the same thing.

tulips had existed for quite a long time before they became the object of a speculative bubble.

Reading comprehension is hard. I know.

(No where did I say Tulips)

Re: Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’

#205

Post by Akujin »

slyfocks wrote: post #85
Akujin wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tulipmania lasted 6 months. Bitcoin is now 8 years old. Stop comparing Bitcoin to flowers. It's not even close to the same thing.

You’re making a false comparison between the period of mania in tulips and the entire lifespan of Bitcoin.

Comparing two financial instruments during their lifetimes is now a false comparison apparently.

Re: Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’

#206

Post by vasilipupkin »

TheCowboy wrote: post #202
vasilipupkin wrote: post #158

Unless you have any predictive insight about when a bubble going to burst, it's essentially a meaningless term. Specifically, I mean, it doesn't tell you anything about what you should do. Suppose Bitcoin is a bubble but it won't burst until 2152. Well, in that case, I should buy it. If it's about to burst in the next few months to few years, then perhaps I should sell it. If you can't tell me when, then you can call…

There's a fallacy in there somewhere. It's like telling me that calling something gambling is a meaningless term because I can't tell you exactly when you will lose your money playing craps. I don't know exactly when. There's a random factor involved. There's even a chance you might come out ahead. The fact that you don't know when it will burst is just one problem with bubbles. You don't know if it will be 2152 or n…

I don't agree with your analogy. If you play craps, then given the odds, we can predict that you will lose money on average if you play a large number of games. That's a pretty specific statement. Which specific statement are we making when we call something a bubble?

Re: Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’

#207

Post by ceejayoz »

Akujin wrote: post #201
ceejayoz wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The chart also intentially discards the first 4 years of Bitcoin trading data (2010-2013) where Bitcoin has actually gained the most. Sure, just like the comment being replied to discards several hundred years worth of tulip sales to say "Tulipmania lasted 6 months. Bitcoin is now 8 years old." Bitcoin has, until this year, largely escaped widespread public notice beyond "isn't this odd/interesting" pieces in the m…

For hacker news I expect people to be a lot smarter but apparently no one in the entire thread realized I said Tulipmania. Not Tulips. Tulips as a financial instrument were only used for 6 months. Here's a fucking chart since you can't be bothered to look it up: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania#/media/File:Tulip_... From November 12th through May 1st. Almost exactly 6 months. Period. Counting anything outsid…

> For hacker news I expect people to be a lot smarter but apparently no one in the entire thread realized I said Tulipmania. Not Tulips.

Yes, and then you went and compared the tulip mania against the entire history of Bitcoin. The current orgy of speculation and people taking out mortgages to buy Bitcoin is a recent phenomenon.

Re: Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’

#208

Post by chomp »

option_greek wrote: post #193
chomp wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I used breadwallet to sell some bitcoins, accidentally set the transaction fee at (what I'd later find out to be) ~10 satoshis/byte. Now I have ~$2300 locked up in the mempool, and no end in sight for these high transaction fees. Can't figure out a way to raise the fee. https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#4d

It should expire in 3-4 days. You can also try importing the keys to another compatible wallet and redo the transaction with higher fee.

Thanks! Currently trying to find a wallet that will let me double spend. Any recommendations?

Re: Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’

#209

Post by TheCowboy »

vasilipupkin wrote: post #206
TheCowboy wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a fallacy in there somewhere. It's like telling me that calling something gambling is a meaningless term because I can't tell you exactly when you will lose your money playing craps. I don't know exactly when. There's a random factor involved. There's even a chance you might come out ahead. The fact that you don't know when it will burst is just one problem with bubbles. You don't know if it will be 2152 or n…

I don't agree with your analogy. If you play craps, then given the odds, we can predict that you will lose money on average if you play a large number of games. That's a pretty specific statement. Which specific statement are we making when we call something a bubble?

Bubble can be overused and become meaningless, but it can be a useful concept to consider when deciding if this is where you want to put your money. In my opinion, irrationally motivated valuation is key here.

People buying Bitcoin as the future are taking a leap of faith that only comes true if enough people take that leap and do not abandon it. There is no underlying asset or intrinsic value, there is no government force backing it up. There is nothing people can point out to express why this particular cryptocurrency has value.

This isn't an argument against the underlying technology, just the valuation of Bitcoin.

Re: Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’

#210

Post by vasilipupkin »

TheCowboy wrote: post #209
vasilipupkin wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't agree with your analogy. If you play craps, then given the odds, we can predict that you will lose money on average if you play a large number of games. That's a pretty specific statement. Which specific statement are we making when we call something a bubble?

Bubble can be overused and become meaningless, but it can be a useful concept to consider when deciding if this is where you want to put your money. In my opinion, irrationally motivated valuation is key here. People buying Bitcoin as the future are taking a leap of faith that only comes true if enough people take that leap and do not abandon it. There is no underlying asset or intrinsic value, there is no government…

Perhaps, but there are all sorts of sophisticated people with all sorts of valuation models for crypto, etc. What you are saying is just disagreement about valuation. I mean, if bitcoin is irrationally priced, there is a way to express that view by shorting bitcoin futures.
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