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Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’

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Re: Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’

#81

Post by einrealist »

Many economists also say that the current economic state may be a bubble, an even worse than that one that popped in 2008.

I think, Bitcoin is undervalued because it can provide a way out for unstable currencies (Venezuela, some African and Asian countries, maybe soon western countries) or to avoid regulations (China, Russia) and of course, for unlawful business (money laundry, blackhats, drugs). That's probably the real value drivers at the moment.

The biggest risk is regulation. Exchanges have to operate somewhere. But I guess, its hard to regulate something that is global (looking at you tax heavens).

Re: Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’

#82

Post by 0xfeba »

AznHisoka wrote: post #22

If there's 1 thing I've learned in the past 2 years, it's that experts can be deadly wrong (Trump being president, Brexit). They seem to be good at predicting things with known variables, but not with unknown unknowns. I'm making a contrarian bet that experts are wrong this time as well (at least in the near term). People are jumping the gun, trying to look smart and predict the right outcome. The same people that ne…

> If there's 1 thing I've learned in the past 2 years, it's that experts can be deadly wrong

But most of the time, they are in fact right. I don't know why a couple instances of wrong-ness proves that experts are unreliable. Other than selection/confirmation bias.

Re: Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’

#83

Post by csallen »

jandrese wrote: post #58
adamnemecek wrote: post #16

The one thing they aren't accounting for is that there really hasn't been anything like bitcoin. In most bubbles, eventually the whales start selling which triggers an avalanche, however bitcoin is distributed enough that this might not happen. Too many different people are interested in it doing well now. E.g. rich people in 3rd world countries, boy are they pumped for bitcoin. I've mentioned it before, and I was ki…

Every crash is preceded by people saying "It's different this time". Edit: Fixed autocorrect goofery

Every crash is preceded by people saying everything, because there are billions of people in the world and it's easy to find any opinion. Thus, the mere presence (or lack thereof) of any particular opinion is not a useful barometer of what's actually happening.

Re: Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’

#84

Post by lawlessone »

zimablue wrote: post #43
lawlessone wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

bitcoin will still have a sort of floor value for the various illegal things it was and is still use for. Obviously though that is far far lower than what it is now.

I see your point but even on that - there are alternative blockchains, we could all just swap to litecoins and send it to zero. If it were the only feasible crypto it would have some sort of floor I agree but factor in altcoins and it actually doesn't have any.

True, there are others, some with more privacy built in , bitcoin enjoys a network effect for now. That might change.

Re: Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’

#85

Post by slyfocks »

Akujin wrote: post #20
evanwise wrote: post #6

I'm committing the cardinal sin of commenting before I'm done with the article, but whenever this discussion comes up, I feel like asking: why not both? Could it be that Bitcoin is currently overvalued and in a "bubble", but it or something like it still may have huge value and utility in the long run? The idea that the Bitcoin bubble is something more like the Dot Com bubble than Tulipomania seems plausible to me.

Tulipmania lasted 6 months. Bitcoin is now 8 years old. Stop comparing Bitcoin to flowers. It's not even close to the same thing.

You’re making a false comparison between the period of mania in tulips and the entire lifespan of Bitcoin.

Re: Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’

#86

Post by whiskyant »

RosanaAnaDana wrote: post #28
dumbfounder wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Internet stocks were in a bubble in the late 90's. It burst but the Internet turned out just fine. The question is, when the crypto bubble bursts, will Bitcoin recover, or will it be something else?

I think the contents of that bubble will fill another, more technically useful crypto. Something with 0 cost transaction fees.

It's not currently possible to have a crypto with 0 fees that's both distributed/non-centralized as well as very secure against attacks.

If there is, Bitcoin can easily incorporate the technology.

Re: Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’

#87

Post by placeybordeaux »

DrNuke wrote: post #65

It is still pioneers and early adopters time, people seeing bitcoin as the first possible single currency for the entire planet. We will see how it goes when the masses and legislators come. Utopian it is not anymore and even technically feasible nowadays, so we will have attempts.

Bitcoin is likely going to remain the most conservative of all the cryptocurrencies. Even the most liberial of them is having trouble scaling to the current demand. The current demand is really quite low.

Re: Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’

#88

Post by Tepix »

darkstar999 wrote: post #54
KasianFranks wrote: post #26

Gotta love how the negative crypto articles rise to the top on HN immediately. What's not understood is that crypto is a way for the un-banked (1/3 of the people on earth who barely have clean water, toilets or telephones, yes telephones and that make $1/day) now have access and participation in a global trading platform. Disruption for the first time is happening to both VCs and traditional investment bankers and th…

Except that bitcoin transaction cost is what, $10 or $15 now? There's no way "unbanked" people will benefit from that, at all.

He wrote crypto, not bitcoin.

Re: Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’

#90

Post by azinman2 »

placeybordeaux wrote: post #66
billmalarky wrote: post #35

Both the founder and lead dev of Ethereum and Litecoin think they are both significantly overvalued. Vitalik Buterin (Ethereum): https://mobile.twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/94085013791... Charlie Lee (Litecoin): https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/940353265585160192 I've been bullish on crypto past few years but it's gone too far. I've flipped to bear until the tech catches up.

I was just reviewing the avg tx fee on major coins. Micropayments aren't possible on any widely accepted coin. BTC has hit 20 USD a tx (albeit without segwit). It's looking a little rough. Might be time for a draw back. EDIT: I was pulling together the avg tx fees from https://bitinfocharts.com/ $BTC: 24.4 USD $ETH: 1.07 USD $BCH: 0.17 USD $LTC: 0.632 USD $DASH: 0.62 USD $XMR: 5.49 USD My other thoughts on the subjec…

Bitcoin doesn’t HAVE to be used for micropayments to be useful.
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