Earlier quoted context omitted.
With all respect to the authors, the thinking at that point in time and the impact it made on the world and you: Much of their predictions haven't stood the test of time. -No exhaustible has been depleted yet and the price mechanism combined with technological progress seems pretty able to set incentives straight. Look at what the oil price bubble of the '00s did for electric cars and batteries in the now. -The world…
You've mischaracterized their work. They didn't predict what you said they did. They showed a range of possible outcomes based on assumptions, among many. You seem to have picked one outcome as their only one and called it their prediction. They created a model based on a systems approach whose output depended on assumptions on physical properties of the planet and future human choices. Given the large uncertainties,…
The Limits to Growth (1972) [pdf]
31–40 of 59 posts
Re: The Limits to Growth (1972) [pdf]
#32Earlier quoted context omitted.
You've mischaracterized their work. They didn't predict what you said they did. They showed a range of possible outcomes based on assumptions, among many. You seem to have picked one outcome as their only one and called it their prediction. They created a model based on a systems approach whose output depended on assumptions on physical properties of the planet and future human choices. Given the large uncertainties,…
Say I agree (at least I get your point ;) - I'm curious how does one test (in the empirical science sense) a systems perspective with regards to predictions / scenario's? Because at least in popular opinion the Club of Rome is known for a pretty grim worldview and political advocacy. Perhaps I'm too much schooled in traditional economics but Robert Nobel wasn't too kind [1] and even in my environmental economics clas…
This certainly applies to macroeconomics -- how does one empirically 'test' any prediction from a macroeconomic model based on real-life inputs, other than to see what happens? But this shouldn't preclude us from asking the really difficult questions that we care about, rather than restricting ourselves to the realm of physics, where we can get 5 sigmas in classical statistical tests.
With regards to Robert Nobel's criticism, the whole point of the Club of Rome's approach is to model a simplified, 'low resolution' view of the world economy in order to embed it in a larger network of information, goods, and energy flows constrained by the environment -- because the boundary conditions matter a lot to how the macroeconomy functions.
Sometimes you can get away with a much simpler modeling approach if you actually get all the inputs right. The biggest criticism the Club of Rome has on most macroeconomic models is that it doesn't model the environmental inputs in sufficient detail, and these things really matter a lot in the long run.
It is not simply sufficient to take current 'wage levels' or 'capital stock' or even 'level of technology' as a direct input to your DSGE RBC model -- our macroeconomies perform a quasi-ecological function of converting flows of matter and energy, largely taken from Nature and the environment, and converting them further for human use. Understanding the Nature-human interface, then explicitly modeling the stock quantities of the inputs into the macroeconomy must on some level be important, because they are key to how our entire technological society functions.
I you're inclined to learn more about their modeling approach at a high level, I highly recommend Thinking in Systems [1]. Read it a week ago and it blew my mind, as its intuitions match up with a lot of patterns that we see over and over again in dealing with any complex network, but presented in a systematic and convincing manner.
Re: The Limits to Growth (1972) [pdf]
#33I remember the first time reading this book, or rather the 30 year update -- https://www.amazon.com/Limits-Growth-Donella-H-Meadows/dp/19... -- thinking, " this is the approach to take to understand how the economy, ecology, pollution, and so on interact." Everything else was just looking at elements. Technology is important, for example, but exists within a system. They looked at the system. They had to simplify and…
Re: The Limits to Growth (1972) [pdf]
#34From a purely logic point of view, I have some problems accepting this: > "When the facts change, I change my mind," I included because of its implied inverse: "When the facts don't change, I don't change my mind." It is my understanding that "A implies B" does not imply "not A implies not B". Maybe I am just hairsplitting, but when I read/hear something I see these kind of sentences as bad indicators.
The trouble with applying formal logic to natural language, is in the translation. You are interpreting "when" as indicating an implication, it could also be an 'if and only if'.
Re: The Limits to Growth (1972) [pdf]
#35Earlier quoted context omitted.
I read the first link you posted and it seemed, if anything, to support the OP's point. Perhaps you could express your objections in your own words?
Read the second link. Own words? Most of the blog posts are done by people much smarter than me. I could do a 1 or 2 hour PPT Presentation trying to get to the point. I think only a few people would be able to follow me. Not, because I am so tremendously smarter than them (I have a PhD), but because the topic is so tremendously complex and interlinked.
Re: The Limits to Growth (1972) [pdf]
#36Earlier quoted context omitted.
> No exhaustible has been depleted yet What did they predict would be depleted by December 2017, and where did they predict it? Be specific please. > The world has seen massively more population growth than they modelled Has it? What does their model predict for December 2017? Be specific. ( http://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/sites/default/files/docs/M... shows an almost perfect fit of population growth predictions an…
Are you not asking of me a much higher degree of rigour than the Club of Rome demonstrated? The simplest: No exhaustible has been depleted yet. See table 4. Add the years in columns 3 or 4 or 5 to 1972. Gold, mercury, silver were predicted to be exhausted by 2017. None are.
I was mostly asking about details of what exact points you said they were wrong about.
> The simplest: No exhaustible has been depleted yet. See table 4. [...] Gold, mercury, silver were predicted to be exhausted by 2017. None are.
Indeed. Thanks! Though I should add that these tables are not based on their system simulation, but simply on known reserves and know rates of consumption at the time.
Re: The Limits to Growth (1972) [pdf]
#37I remember the first time reading this book, or rather the 30 year update -- https://www.amazon.com/Limits-Growth-Donella-H-Meadows/dp/19... -- thinking, " this is the approach to take to understand how the economy, ecology, pollution, and so on interact." Everything else was just looking at elements. Technology is important, for example, but exists within a system. They looked at the system. They had to simplify and…
With all respect to the authors, the thinking at that point in time and the impact it made on the world and you: Much of their predictions haven't stood the test of time. -No exhaustible has been depleted yet and the price mechanism combined with technological progress seems pretty able to set incentives straight. Look at what the oil price bubble of the '00s did for electric cars and batteries in the now. -The world…
The counterproposition is that there are no limits to growth. This tends to render itself absurd in fairly short order. (Though that fact has done little to dent the propositions's popularity.)
You can find proponents of such views easily.
Julian Simon is among the better-known, having by a mix of chance and a general failure to understand economics of extractive resource economics, won a rather famous wager.
There's M.A. Adelman, an obscure, but influential, M.I.T. economist specialising in petroleum:
Minerals are essentially inexhuastible. Oil, gas, coal, and copper, for example, will never be depleted. Investment in exploration and development creates an in-ground inventory of proved reserves, constantly used and replaced.
This is an M.I.T. economist.
(Simon's arguments are even sketchier.)
An oil company CEO -- I can't recall which -- wrote an editorial in one of the major weekly magazines (I think it was The Atlantic though I haven't been able to turn it up), arguing to the effect that there were no limits to oil. This in the 1950s.
At the time, the US was some 20 years past its largest-ever on-shore oil discovery, the East Texas Oil Field, and 20 years from its own conventional production peak, in 1972. The world's largest-ever oil field, at Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, had already been discovered.
By the 1880s, the general locations of most U.S. oil finds was already well-established: they were betrayed by natural seeps and existing finds, in upstate New York and Pennsylvania, in Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma, and in California. Guides that rapidly appeared on how to get rich (or broke) quick in the Pennsylvania oil fields, such as Dr. Gesners (below) list out a litany of familiar locations and bearing materials, including, yes, tars, sands, and shales, as well as coal.
Again: the message is a simple one. Unending constant percentage growth is impossible. At some point it has to cease. The limits are so significant that even very crude estimates (such as those employed by the LTG models) are fairly accurate -- most of those showed a peak sometime in the 2020 - 2040 period, a result which seems borne out.
Where history has shown otherwise, it's largely been on either of two bases:
1. The growth trends slowed. This occurred in population after a phenomenal boom in the 1950s and 1960s. This had proved exceptionally concerning at numerous levels.
2. Capabilities have improved, slightly. Most especially in food production. But the improvements have themselves come at a cost of more intensive activity, greater resource utilisation (including of petrochemical fertilisers and pesticides), of topsoil erosion, and of environmental impacts.
Those two developments staved off one of the worst predictions, of global starvation by the year 2000. But the avoidance itself came through mechanisms consistent with the general concept. That is: one trend slowed, another increased, but through increased impacts. The net is a slight time shift, but a minuscule one given the history of Earth, or even of Humanity.
Ghawar:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghawar_Field
Oil, as seen from the 1860s:
https://archive.org/stream/apracticaltreat01unkngoog#page/n1...
Some of the cornucopians, and what they've had to say:
https://www.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/1xch1j/bradley...
Re: The Limits to Growth (1972) [pdf]
#38Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are you not asking of me a much higher degree of rigour than the Club of Rome demonstrated? The simplest: No exhaustible has been depleted yet. See table 4. Add the years in columns 3 or 4 or 5 to 1972. Gold, mercury, silver were predicted to be exhausted by 2017. None are.
"The simplest: No exhaustible has been depleted yet" You are correct. In fact, they never will be depleted. Same with the oil. Most of the oil that is still in the ground will stay there. "These forecasts are made possible by assuming the limit on the amount of oil extracted is the amount of oil in the ground. In fact, the limit is likely to be a financial (debt) limit that comes much sooner." https://ourfiniteworld.…
Thanks for the reference, seems a nicely concise overview. The resources and industrial output graph almost jumps out ...
Re: The Limits to Growth (1972) [pdf]
#39I'm still looking for a video or audio of that conference.
This particularly:
Re: The Limits to Growth (1972) [pdf]
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
The trouble with applying formal logic to natural language, is in the translation. You are interpreting "when" as indicating an implication, it could also be an 'if and only if'.
I know what you mean. It took me some effort to accept that, in natural language, an "exponential growth" was not really meant to be exponential. One has to live with it. :)