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The author of that tweet (a researcher at a pension fund) polled his followers several times about whether they thought BTC was a bubble. The higher BTC's price, the fewer people believed it was a bubble.
And even if Bitcoin does go to zero that still doesn't prove that we were in a bubble now. The market is already 95% sure that that's what's going to happen!
I'm committing the cardinal sin of commenting before I'm done with the article, but whenever this discussion comes up, I feel like asking: why not both? Could it be that Bitcoin is currently overvalued and in a "bubble", but it or something like it still may have huge value and utility in the long run? The idea that the Bitcoin bubble is something more like the Dot Com bubble than Tulipomania seems plausible to me.
Yes. Internet stocks were in a bubble in the late 90's. It burst but the Internet turned out just fine. The question is, when the crypto bubble bursts, will Bitcoin recover, or will it be something else?
I'm committing the cardinal sin of commenting before I'm done with the article, but whenever this discussion comes up, I feel like asking: why not both? Could it be that Bitcoin is currently overvalued and in a "bubble", but it or something like it still may have huge value and utility in the long run? The idea that the Bitcoin bubble is something more like the Dot Com bubble than Tulipomania seems plausible to me.
Tulipmania lasted 6 months. Bitcoin is now 8 years old. Stop comparing Bitcoin to flowers. It's not even close to the same thing.
Tulipmania includes the time it took for the belief that tulips were special and valuable to take hold, and the time it took for merchants to cross breed specific colors for the Dutch nobility. When you include the history behind the bubble and why it happened, tulipmania took decades.
That's not to say that Bitcoin will end the same way, but it is to say that bubbles don't start and end within 6 months.
Both the founder and lead dev of Ethereum and Litecoin think they are both significantly overvalued. Vitalik Buterin (Ethereum): https://mobile.twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/94085013791... Charlie Lee (Litecoin): https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/940353265585160192 I've been bullish on crypto past few years but it's gone too far. I've flipped to bear until the tech catches up.
Micropayments aren't possible on any widely accepted coin. BTC has hit 20 USD a tx (albeit without segwit).
It's looking a little rough.
Might be time for a draw back.
EDIT: I was pulling together the avg tx fees from https://bitinfocharts.com/
$BTC: 24.4 USD $ETH: 1.07 USD $BCH: 0.17 USD $LTC: 0.632 USD $DASH: 0.62 USD $XMR: 5.49 USD
My other thoughts on the subject: https://twitter.com/placeybordeaux/status/941122240623423490
I'm committing the cardinal sin of commenting before I'm done with the article, but whenever this discussion comes up, I feel like asking: why not both? Could it be that Bitcoin is currently overvalued and in a "bubble", but it or something like it still may have huge value and utility in the long run? The idea that the Bitcoin bubble is something more like the Dot Com bubble than Tulipomania seems plausible to me.
Yes. Internet stocks were in a bubble in the late 90's. It burst but the Internet turned out just fine. The question is, when the crypto bubble bursts, will Bitcoin recover, or will it be something else?
From the high point of $31 all the way to $2 in Dec 2011.
From $266 to $130 in May 2013.
From $1200 to $200 in Mar 2015.
From $5000 to $2900 in Sep 2017.
From $7300 to $5500 in Nov 2017.
From $18000 to $14000 in Dec 2017.If there's 1 thing I've learned in the past 2 years, it's that experts can be deadly wrong (Trump being president, Brexit). They seem to be good at predicting things with known variables, but not with unknown unknowns. I'm making a contrarian bet that experts are wrong this time as well (at least in the near term). People are jumping the gun, trying to look smart and predict the right outcome. The same people that ne…
>If there's 1 thing I've learned in the past 2 years, it's that experts can be deadly wrong (Trump being president, Brexit). Be very careful with those conclusions. In both cases the predictions were that the elections were very close. Trump winning the presidency when the best models we had gave him a 30% chance is not a failing of prediction at all.
I grant that a +1500% gain in 1 year is a different animal. But combine the store of value along with rapid technological innovation in all cryptocurrencies (ICOs, alt-coins, etc). I submit to you that there could be something here besides baseless mania.
The one thing they aren't accounting for is that there really hasn't been anything like bitcoin. In most bubbles, eventually the whales start selling which triggers an avalanche, however bitcoin is distributed enough that this might not happen. Too many different people are interested in it doing well now. E.g. rich people in 3rd world countries, boy are they pumped for bitcoin. I've mentioned it before, and I was ki…
Curious what you mean by "tech company economics are different". Thanks