It very obviously is. Nothing can grow at such an insane rate and be a stable, long-lasting thing. No one knows how high it will go, but that it will collapse hard soon is 100% sure.
If you are certain it will collapse you can make a lot of money shorting it. If you are 100% sure, there is no downside.
Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?
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Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?
#12It very obviously is. Nothing can grow at such an insane rate and be a stable, long-lasting thing. No one knows how high it will go, but that it will collapse hard soon is 100% sure.
If you are certain it will collapse you can make a lot of money shorting it. If you are 100% sure, there is no downside.
Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?
#13Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?
#14As a fiat currency, it is almost by definition a bubble. It's fundamental value is essentially nil, yet it's "price" is positive. In the current equilibrium, people seem to agree that Bitcoin is a good store of value (because it is perhaps limited in supply and ownership is verifiable). Fortunately/unfortunately, other cryptocurrencies are just as useful in this regard. As such, Bitcoin's value is something of a suns…
"It's fundamental value is essentially nil," That's not strictly true. It's fundamental value is the effort required to obtain it - which at the moment is some rather large amount of electricity and hardware. If you have deployed those resources you will not let the Bitcoins go for any less in real exchange unless you absolutely have to. That is the same for anything that is a currency. It's base value is what you ha…
There are many endeavors which produce goods whose market-clearing price is below the value of effort required to produce them.
Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?
#15Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?
#16Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?
#17Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?
#18Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?
#19Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you are certain it will collapse you can make a lot of money shorting it. If you are 100% sure, there is no downside.
Is there even a US based legit platform to short Bitcoin? If Coinbase was serious about having a true market they would allow you to short Bitcoin as well as buy.
Interestingly enough, S. Korea has declared bitcoin futures illegal today and S. Korea is the leading buyer of BTC.
Should be a good time.
Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?
#20Earlier quoted context omitted.
"It's fundamental value is essentially nil," That's not strictly true. It's fundamental value is the effort required to obtain it - which at the moment is some rather large amount of electricity and hardware. If you have deployed those resources you will not let the Bitcoins go for any less in real exchange unless you absolutely have to. That is the same for anything that is a currency. It's base value is what you ha…
You've confused fundamental value with fundamental cost. A hand-knit sweater will not necessarily (or even usually ) fetch a selling price equal to the input value of the labor that went into it. There are many endeavors which produce goods whose market-clearing price is below the value of effort required to produce them.