Live data from Hacker News

Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?

news.ycombinator.com

11–20 of 55 posts

Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?

#11
post #7
post #6

It very obviously is. Nothing can grow at such an insane rate and be a stable, long-lasting thing. No one knows how high it will go, but that it will collapse hard soon is 100% sure.

If you are certain it will collapse you can make a lot of money shorting it. If you are 100% sure, there is no downside.

Maybe you've heard the old finance saying: "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".

Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?

#12
post #7
post #6

It very obviously is. Nothing can grow at such an insane rate and be a stable, long-lasting thing. No one knows how high it will go, but that it will collapse hard soon is 100% sure.

If you are certain it will collapse you can make a lot of money shorting it. If you are 100% sure, there is no downside.

Is there even a US based legit platform to short Bitcoin? If Coinbase was serious about having a true market they would allow you to short Bitcoin as well as buy.

Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?

#14
post #4

As a fiat currency, it is almost by definition a bubble. It's fundamental value is essentially nil, yet it's "price" is positive. In the current equilibrium, people seem to agree that Bitcoin is a good store of value (because it is perhaps limited in supply and ownership is verifiable). Fortunately/unfortunately, other cryptocurrencies are just as useful in this regard. As such, Bitcoin's value is something of a suns…

"It's fundamental value is essentially nil," That's not strictly true. It's fundamental value is the effort required to obtain it - which at the moment is some rather large amount of electricity and hardware. If you have deployed those resources you will not let the Bitcoins go for any less in real exchange unless you absolutely have to. That is the same for anything that is a currency. It's base value is what you ha…

You've confused fundamental value with fundamental cost. A hand-knit sweater will not necessarily (or even usually) fetch a selling price equal to the input value of the labor that went into it.

There are many endeavors which produce goods whose market-clearing price is below the value of effort required to produce them.

Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?

#16
I wonder how bitcoin will look in the aftermath of other technological novelties. Usually, these things start off as a niche novelty of an insular crowd, then savy people take part, then it goes mainstream and the influx of traffic forces regulation and more overhead due to demand. The drivers of the technology leave, then there's a slow burnout time where people try to maintain the appearence that the tech isn't dying.

Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?

#18
You can't know that it's not a bubble. Maybe it is and crashes tomorrow. Maybe it is and crashes in a year. Maybe that crash brings it back to fundamentals but that price is still higher than it is today. If you could perfectly predict the future you'd be pretty much God.

Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?

#19
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are certain it will collapse you can make a lot of money shorting it. If you are 100% sure, there is no downside.

Is there even a US based legit platform to short Bitcoin? If Coinbase was serious about having a true market they would allow you to short Bitcoin as well as buy.

CME is offering bitcoin futures starting next week.

Interestingly enough, S. Korea has declared bitcoin futures illegal today and S. Korea is the leading buyer of BTC.

Should be a good time.

Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?

#20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"It's fundamental value is essentially nil," That's not strictly true. It's fundamental value is the effort required to obtain it - which at the moment is some rather large amount of electricity and hardware. If you have deployed those resources you will not let the Bitcoins go for any less in real exchange unless you absolutely have to. That is the same for anything that is a currency. It's base value is what you ha…

You've confused fundamental value with fundamental cost. A hand-knit sweater will not necessarily (or even usually ) fetch a selling price equal to the input value of the labor that went into it. There are many endeavors which produce goods whose market-clearing price is below the value of effort required to produce them.

Houses are a good example. When land is plentiful, the cost of a house is usually a slight discount over what it would cost to build a similar one for new.
Post reply on HN