Student Loan Debt Is Now as Big as the U.S. Junk Bond Market • Hacker News Board

Re: Student Loan Debt Is Now as Big as the U.S. Junk Bond Market

#171

Post by mywittyname » Tue, Dec 05, 2017, 5:58 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #96

JonFish85 wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not thinking just SS. Imagine in 30-40 years when SW engineers are retiring with their $5m 401k, but their neighbor is still barely making rent at their service-level job. I imagine there are many more people who have foregone retirement savings to pay off their massive college loans. Politically, the story would be something like this: why should you, a multi-millionaire SW engineer who hasn't paid taxes on your…

Taxes are at historically low rates, and current governments have continually borrowed from the future to fund wars and tax cuts (outstanding US government obligations are in the trillions of dollars [1]). Of course taxes are going to go up. Plan accordingly. If you've put millions of dollars in a pre-tax retirement account, you're a fool if you think it's coming out at anything near current tax rates. You're banking…

> Of course taxes are going to go up. Plan accordingly

They already did. The GOP tax bill specifically targeted our demographic as a way to finance tax cuts for the wealthy and businesses. The GOP doesn't even deny it.

Like it or not, we are the scapegoats for all the problems afflicting the poor. And it's not a stretch to believe the GOP is going to use popular support to extract every dime from us until we are homeless too.

Re: Student Loan Debt Is Now as Big as the U.S. Junk Bond Market

#172

Post by lurker456 » Tue, Dec 05, 2017, 6:01 PM UTC

ConceptJunkie wrote: post #155

jackweirdy wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Another solution is to let you go to school for free and then pay a percent of all your future earnings back to your college, or at least into a pool that pays for the next generation's college. We could call it income tax :)

The problem with subsidizing college in any way, including the current student loan system is that it encourages people to go to college whether it makes sense or not, and as several people have mentioned in this discussion, in a lot of cases, it doesn't make sense. Anyone who is properly motivated should be able to go to college, but when I hear cries for a free college education, I can imagine that that would stimu…

How would you define whether it makes sense ? Free market or some other metric ? From society's point of view, having an educated population arguably has more benefits besides the immediate economic one, much like having an universal health service, having a police force or permitting LLC's to exist. If it's spiraling out of control in the US, reducing costs per head would be far better than reducing the overall headcount.

Re: Student Loan Debt Is Now as Big as the U.S. Junk Bond Market

#173

Post by jedberg » Tue, Dec 05, 2017, 6:01 PM UTC

joshgachnang wrote: post #47

murph-almighty wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you'd probably see a lot more STEM degrees and a lot fewer of everything else I honestly think art schools are going to start running into problems convincing people it's a good idea to pay 60k a year for minimal ROI. My cousin wants to go into stage drama, and I don't want to tell her to not pursue her dream, but I think it's a lot to ask her to put herself in debt for years for a piece of paper that says she can…

Same. My sister was looking at a $40k/yr private school photography degree. I sat her down and we discussed how much that was going to cost her when she graduated, what kind of job she'd need to pay it back in a reasonable time, etc. In the end, she started her own wedding photography company instead.

> In the end, she started her own wedding photography company instead.

That's awesome! I wish more people had smart person to sit down and explain these things to them.

Re: Student Loan Debt Is Now as Big as the U.S. Junk Bond Market

#174

Post by whyenot » Tue, Dec 05, 2017, 6:02 PM UTC

ConceptJunkie wrote: post #155

jackweirdy wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Another solution is to let you go to school for free and then pay a percent of all your future earnings back to your college, or at least into a pool that pays for the next generation's college. We could call it income tax :)

The problem with subsidizing college in any way, including the current student loan system is that it encourages people to go to college whether it makes sense or not, and as several people have mentioned in this discussion, in a lot of cases, it doesn't make sense. Anyone who is properly motivated should be able to go to college, but when I hear cries for a free college education, I can imagine that that would stimu…

I tend to agree with you about the problem although I am not sure that it has been an issue in other countries with free college education. Maybe the solution would be to emulate some European countries and also pay for vocational training, or subsidized trade apprenticeships.

Re: Student Loan Debt Is Now as Big as the U.S. Junk Bond Market

#175

Post by RyanZAG » Tue, Dec 05, 2017, 6:03 PM UTC

simias wrote: post #146

smallnamespace wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen this form of scientism playing out frequently on Reddit and other Internet forums lately. Discussion will be about some piece of controversial research, e.g. GMOs or vaccines. People who want to discuss the merits of the research are shouted down by what I can only describe as 'science fanbois' -- anything that is 'against science' must be wrong. They're missing the inherent tension in science between a rec…

I don't think it's really about science, it's more about reddit. You'll find the same thing on any discussion on any somewhat popular subreddit regardless of the subject. There's almost always a reddit hivemind sanctioned Good Answer to any issue and if you stray away from the Good Path you'll get buried in downvotes, regardless of how much effort you put into arguing your point. Conversely if you make a completely u…

HN isn't all that different, so it's probably about more than just reddit.

For example, you can post the same remarks criticizing functional programming in a post about C# or Java and get upvotes, while the same post in a Haskell discussion will be downvoted. You can try the experiment yourself to verify it.

This applies to companies as well - you will be upvoted for pro-Microsoft or anti-Google posts in a news topic about Microsoft, and the reverse in a news topic about Google. This is because people who use Microsoft products will be very interested in Microsoft news, but not interested enough in Google news to go and downvote opinions they disagree with there.

Re: Student Loan Debt Is Now as Big as the U.S. Junk Bond Market

#176

Post by dragonwriter » Tue, Dec 05, 2017, 6:05 PM UTC

RyanZAG wrote: post #175

simias wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it's really about science, it's more about reddit. You'll find the same thing on any discussion on any somewhat popular subreddit regardless of the subject. There's almost always a reddit hivemind sanctioned Good Answer to any issue and if you stray away from the Good Path you'll get buried in downvotes, regardless of how much effort you put into arguing your point. Conversely if you make a completely u…

HN isn't all that different, so it's probably about more than just reddit. For example, you can post the same remarks criticizing functional programming in a post about C# or Java and get upvotes, while the same post in a Haskell discussion will be downvoted. You can try the experiment yourself to verify it. This applies to companies as well - you will be upvoted for pro-Microsoft or anti-Google posts in a news topic…

> For example, you can post the same remarks criticizing functional programming in a post about C# or Java and get upvotes, while the same post in a Haskell discussion will be downvoted.

It's simply unreasonsble to think that the value of a comment is independent of its context.

Re: Student Loan Debt Is Now as Big as the U.S. Junk Bond Market

#177

Post by Veratyr » Tue, Dec 05, 2017, 6:07 PM UTC

jedberg wrote: post #22

There is definitely an education bubble. It's way too easy to get money for college. You hear a lot of stories about the increasing costs of college and crushing debt on graduation, but you don't hear a lot of stories of "I wanted to go to college but couldn't get a loan". Almost everyone gets approved, regardless of their future ability to pay it back. We need a fundamental shift in the way college is paid for. Some…

> Another solution is to let you go to school for free and then pay a percent of all your future earnings

In Australia we have a system somewhere between this and a loan.

You go to (heavily subsidized) university, tuition is paid for by the government with an automatic interest free loan.

Once you earn above a particular (somewhat generous) threshold, your employer automatically starts taking a percentage of your income (depends on income) and pays it towards the loan.

There's no interest but the loan amount is indexed against inflation.

I graduated from one of the country's top universities with $24k AUD (~$18k USD) debt to the government and paid it all off early voluntarily. It used to be that voluntary payments got you a 5% bonus but that's gone now.

Re: Student Loan Debt Is Now as Big as the U.S. Junk Bond Market

#178

Post by bradleyjg » Tue, Dec 05, 2017, 6:07 PM UTC

jedberg wrote: post #22

There is definitely an education bubble. It's way too easy to get money for college. You hear a lot of stories about the increasing costs of college and crushing debt on graduation, but you don't hear a lot of stories of "I wanted to go to college but couldn't get a loan". Almost everyone gets approved, regardless of their future ability to pay it back. We need a fundamental shift in the way college is paid for. Some…

> There is definitely an education bubble.

It can't really be a bubble because there are no assets to be bid up in a run away cycle or that can have a sudden collapse. Bloomberg tells you what you need to know in the article but doesn't do it right upfront. The overwhelming majority of this debt is held or guaranteed by the federal government.

A bubble is one way to get malinvestment, but it isn't the only one. Here we have malinvestment but no bubble.

Re: Student Loan Debt Is Now as Big as the U.S. Junk Bond Market

#179

Post by kartan » Tue, Dec 05, 2017, 6:08 PM UTC

ConceptJunkie wrote: post #155

jackweirdy wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Another solution is to let you go to school for free and then pay a percent of all your future earnings back to your college, or at least into a pool that pays for the next generation's college. We could call it income tax :)

The problem with subsidizing college in any way, including the current student loan system is that it encourages people to go to college whether it makes sense or not, and as several people have mentioned in this discussion, in a lot of cases, it doesn't make sense. Anyone who is properly motivated should be able to go to college, but when I hear cries for a free college education, I can imagine that that would stimu…

> People who are properly motivated and who have what it takes should be able to go to college, but it needs to cost something... just not as much as it does now.

In Spain there is a limited number of open position in different studies. You get an test and people is sorted by their grades. The people with higher grades get to the college they choose. It is not perfect as people in better neighborhoods get better education and can get more easily to college. But at least, it is closer to a meritocracy and costs less money.

> as an excuse to take a 4-year vacation

If you don't pass a minimum of credits the first year, you get kicked out. A lot of people doesn't pass this phase.

There is ways of solving the problems, but you need a government with willingness to do it.

Re: Student Loan Debt Is Now as Big as the U.S. Junk Bond Market

#180

Post by toomuchtodo » Tue, Dec 05, 2017, 6:08 PM UTC

mywittyname wrote: post #171

toomuchtodo wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taxes are at historically low rates, and current governments have continually borrowed from the future to fund wars and tax cuts (outstanding US government obligations are in the trillions of dollars [1]). Of course taxes are going to go up. Plan accordingly. If you've put millions of dollars in a pre-tax retirement account, you're a fool if you think it's coming out at anything near current tax rates. You're banking…

> Of course taxes are going to go up. Plan accordingly They already did. The GOP tax bill specifically targeted our demographic as a way to finance tax cuts for the wealthy and businesses. The GOP doesn't even deny it. Like it or not, we are the scapegoats for all the problems afflicting the poor. And it's not a stretch to believe the GOP is going to use popular support to extract every dime from us until we are home…

Medicare cuts->Elderly dying off faster->Voter demographic change. Law of unintended consequences? Possibly. I can see the political winds shifting back hard over the next 3 years.

Enough Puerto Ricans might have moved to Florida already to turn the state blue. Won't know until next elections.