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Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

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Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#231

Post by wpietri »

malandrew wrote: post #213
jsonne wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a list of them in fact. Literally the top result on my Google SERP for "local uber competitors" http://mashable.com/2017/08/16/uber-global-rivals-didi/#vCa1...

Yes, and which were started after 2013 or even as early as 2013? The truth is that all the viable competitors are likely already out there and it's going to be very very difficult to replicate what these incumbents have without burning ridiculous amounts of capital. If the Softbank deal closes, we'll likely see a wave of consolidation with Softbank orchestrating acquisitions by Uber. It's very common for relatively y…

Just looking at the ones active in Austin, Fasten, Chariot, and InstaRyde were started in 2014; Fare in 2015; Ride Austin in 2016.

Ride sharing is essentially a local business with very low barriers to entry. You don't need to replicate what the incumbents have right away. You just need a modest number of drivers (who can also be driving for the incumbents) and a modest number of customers.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#232

Post by wpietri »

newaccount88 wrote: post #211
wpietri wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, except that I would say that Uber has a lead, not a moat. Since the car transport market is 99% local, I don't think it would take all that much money to start something. Look at the competitors that started in Austin, for example. I also suspect that ride pricing and scale will not be the determining factors. Look at the variety that still exists among car manufaturers after a century of competition: http://…

See my response above. The buyers of these vehicles are going to be the networks themselves, which will eliminate most if not all car brands. The car brands know it, which is why they're panicking. (Why ALL car brands? Because you're going to have companies like Bosch and Foxconn competing. I'd like to see Ford beat Foxconn at a challenge like this.)

Maybe, maybe not. Cars are Americans' most expensive status good. We might end up in a PRT-ish world, where transport is practically a utility, in which case you'd be right. But it's also plausible that people will continue to pay for social cachet and self-image enhancement.

This would be especially true if people continue to own or lease private cars, which I'm sure will continue at some level for decades at least. Look at how much stuff families keep in their minivans, for example. Or all the tradespeople who keep working materials in their trunk.

Or look at commuters. Taxi-ish providers like Uber and Lyft will have a hard time dealing with commutes because they'll have to buy a lot of vehicles to cover the peak that just won't get used much during the off hours. If people treat it like a minibus, where they share, then the providers might do well. But I suspect a lot of people will be willing to pay up for a private commute, at which point they might as well just have a dedicated car. In which case, the market will look a lot more like it does now.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#233

Post by jdmichal »

newaccount88 wrote: post #209
jdmichal wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The IRS puts "variable costs" at about 14 cents per mile. So, yes they may do better, but not significantly better. Also, electric means either battery swaps or significantly longer refueling time. Not a problem for commuter cars with downtime anyway. But for a 24/7 business, that becomes more impactful. https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/2017-standard-mileage-rates-for... "The standard mileage rate for business is based o…

Literally none of the old assumptions will apply. Let's go through some of them. 1. Maintenance. Electric vehicles require far less maintenance than ICE vehicles. (First thing I found on Google: https://insideevs.com/ev-vs-ice-maintenance-the-first-100000... ) 2. Vehicle size. Once these systems are up and running, do you think Waymo & Uber, once their systems reach any level of maturity, are going to send you a 4 pe…

Very few of these points have anything to do with ICE vs EV. Most of them are automated vs not. (1) and (3) are maybe valid, though if you don't think large fleet operators aren't hedging their fuel purchases... Even my local school district buys desiel for buses via wholesale and futures.

And regarding (8), many taxis are rented by drivers for their shift, with multiple shifts per car per day. Uber could be doing the same right now, but they'd rather rely on drivers not realizing the full value of their car and giving the difference to Uber.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#234

Post by watwut »

ProAm wrote: post #212
watwut wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They could be food if they would be willing to invest money and refine refine refine. They are not. So, even if they would buy from Uber it would be for cheap. Plus any other startup or company can build such app to compete.

Im not sure what you mean by 'They could be food'? Any start up could build this, but most companies don't want to deal with an MVP and the bugs that come with it, or a startup that may or may not exist in 6 months, etc... Companies will over pay for enterprise grade software if it has a history of just working. This is why Uber has an advantage, software that has a track record of doing what it says it does.

I meant "good", but either typo or autocorrelat got in the way.

I think that companies like taxis are cheap and while they are willing to pay, they are not willing to pay much.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#235

Post by mrgordon »

astrodust wrote: post #86
mrgordon wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have around 12,000 employees according to Wikipedia (and a few other sources show a similar figure). If we figure the average employee is 250,000/year in liabilities on the balance sheet (salary + benefits + options/RSUs) then thats $3 billion a year in employee expenses. I don't think $250k is too unrealistic considering the massive capital gains many employees must have on paper as well as the high level of ta…

That seems like an absurdly high number of employees for what's basically a taxi company, especially considering their drivers aren't employees. That's roughly as many employees as Apple had in 2005, a company that was making laptops, desktops, servers, wireless routers, portable audio players, and entire operating systems.

Self driving cars and operations eat a lot of staff

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#236

Post by mrgordon »

kinkrtyavimoodh wrote: post #105
mrgordon wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have around 12,000 employees according to Wikipedia (and a few other sources show a similar figure). If we figure the average employee is 250,000/year in liabilities on the balance sheet (salary + benefits + options/RSUs) then thats $3 billion a year in employee expenses. I don't think $250k is too unrealistic considering the massive capital gains many employees must have on paper as well as the high level of ta…

Uber has a lot of Operations staff all around the world who are getting faaar less than $250K a year (even if you add everything in the kitchen sink to reach the compensation number). And by faar I mean an order of magnitude less. Other than engineering they also have a lot of people going around mapping cities, QAing those maps etc.

Sure on the other hand employees who got in early have pay packages that are easily in the tens of millions

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#237

Post by tragic »

bob_theslob646 wrote: post #225
tragic wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sort of formulation is extremely common in all kinds of news reporting. Journalists frequently have recourse to anonymous sources - so frequent that there are strong journalistic ethical injunctions against exposing such sources. Deep Throat was 'a person familiar with the matter'.

>so frequent that there are strong journalistic ethical injunctions against exposing such sources. Ethical injuctions? Lol, yeah if maybe the industry was not based off of advertising as a primary source of revenue. The way that it currently stands getting those clicks/eyeballe is way more important than ethics. Journalism is dead in the United States.

I am not saying that journalism is ethical 'in general', but that among journalists there is a strong taboo against revealing sources. Whether we compare that to the omertà code of the Mafia or the Hippocratic oath is a different matter.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#238

Post by pishpash »

misun78 wrote: post #215
blhack wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Increased competition. Maybe I'm weird, but: 1) I don't even look at what the price of lyft is. So they could up the price by a significant percentage I wouldn't even notice. 2) Even if Uber was more expensive than lyft, I would almost definitely still take uber.

You're not weird and this is precisely why Uber is still the market leader. But there is a cohort, in some specific areas where Lyft's network is on par with Uber's such that price, and more specifically targeted discounts, do play a part. Lyft can analyze which one of its riders has not taken a ride in a while (and is hence presumably using Uber) and target them with discounts.

Lyft just can't shake the ... downmarket vibe.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#239

Post by Marazan »

lev99 wrote: post #143
jsonne wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem though is that they led the way by breaking down all the regulatory barrier to entries. Whats to stop anyone from starting a ridesharing company tomorrow?

The network effect. You have the give your drivers a reason to use your app instead of uber. You have to give riders a reason to use your app instead of uber. The two reasons have to be good enough to build a large enough network for the rideshare system to work.

There is no cost for a driver to use multiple apps. There is no cost for a user to use multiple apps.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#240

Post by bob_theslob646 »

hrasyid wrote: post #230
bob_theslob646 wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Not really. The revenue for a company selling dollar bills for 80c each will keep increasing until all the cash is gone as well. The rides that I have taken are not subsidized. Maybe it's not statistically significant but I have yet to see the subsidy in the major cities that I have traveled in. SoftBank obviously sees something in them. Who knows. I don't disagree with what you said.

> The rides that I have taken are not subsidized. Maybe it's not statistically significant but I have yet to see the subsidy in the major cities that I have traveled in. How do you know that?

The prices are higher per mile this year.( I have kept all my digital receipts for business travel purposes)

How do you know they are subsidized?

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