Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares • Hacker News Board

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#211

Post by newaccount88 » Thu, Nov 30, 2017, 11:20 PM UTC

wpietri wrote: post #206

lsiq wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They do have a small moat in the short term; the network of drivers, brand recognition they've built up (even w/ the bad press), the large codebase they have by now, and the amount of capital to start such a business from scratch is not insignificant. However, you are right to bring up autonomous cars. I always thought it amusing that Kalanick et al were so anxious to bet the house on autonomous cars, when in fact, t…

Agreed, except that I would say that Uber has a lead, not a moat. Since the car transport market is 99% local, I don't think it would take all that much money to start something. Look at the competitors that started in Austin, for example. I also suspect that ride pricing and scale will not be the determining factors. Look at the variety that still exists among car manufaturers after a century of competition: http://…

See my response above. The buyers of these vehicles are going to be the networks themselves, which will eliminate most if not all car brands.

The car brands know it, which is why they're panicking.

(Why ALL car brands? Because you're going to have companies like Bosch and Foxconn competing. I'd like to see Ford beat Foxconn at a challenge like this.)

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#212

Post by ProAm » Thu, Nov 30, 2017, 11:21 PM UTC

watwut wrote: post #207

ProAm wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course you can but most taxi companies do not want to be in the app development business. And most other ride hailing apps are not very good. They'd rather focus on their main line of work which is transportation. People know Uber, that app works, people would use it if it was available. The subsidizing is what made them a household name, along with the ease of use.

They could be food if they would be willing to invest money and refine refine refine. They are not. So, even if they would buy from Uber it would be for cheap. Plus any other startup or company can build such app to compete.

Im not sure what you mean by 'They could be food'?

Any start up could build this, but most companies don't want to deal with an MVP and the bugs that come with it, or a startup that may or may not exist in 6 months, etc... Companies will over pay for enterprise grade software if it has a history of just working. This is why Uber has an advantage, software that has a track record of doing what it says it does.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#213

Post by malandrew » Thu, Nov 30, 2017, 11:24 PM UTC

jsonne wrote: post #185

malandrew wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please name one comparatively successful ridesharing company founded in 2013 or later in any global market. I'll wait.

Here's a list of them in fact. Literally the top result on my Google SERP for "local uber competitors" http://mashable.com/2017/08/16/uber-global-rivals-didi/#vCa1...

Yes, and which were started after 2013 or even as early as 2013?

The truth is that all the viable competitors are likely already out there and it's going to be very very difficult to replicate what these incumbents have without burning ridiculous amounts of capital.

If the Softbank deal closes, we'll likely see a wave of consolidation with Softbank orchestrating acquisitions by Uber. It's very common for relatively young markets to consolidate over time.

No one in their right mind would start a new company to compete with the existing TNCs in 2017.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#214

Post by Analemma_ » Thu, Nov 30, 2017, 11:36 PM UTC

exelius wrote: post #144

dalbasal wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What happens to stock which isn't part of the IPO? Ie, all the stock owned by employees, investors, etc? Does it become instantly tradeable? I would imagine that considering the long road, a lot of people are really ready to sell. There are lots of owners that will have achieved 50X or more return, even at a low market cap. Former employees with option strike prices @ £20m, early investors that got in @ £150m.... Tha…

I've heard anecdotes that this is indeed the case at Uber. Lots of senior engineers / techs are burned out but can't afford to quit without abandoning their options. Many of them don't do any work at all, and Uber is fine with it because they don't want a mass exodus before the IPO. This is not uncommon around the Valley, but I hear it's especially problematic at Uber. I'm sure it's a continued drag on earnings, but…

Wow, is this a real phenomenon? This is fascinating.

I would love for one of these people to speak on the record about this, but I imagine that’ll never happen.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#215

Post by misun78 » Thu, Nov 30, 2017, 11:43 PM UTC

blhack wrote: post #155

misun78 wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Increased competition. Lyft is burning through money at an unprecedented rate to catch up with Uber given that they smell blood this year and investors ala Google are willing to subsidize the burn. At some point, this has to stop but 2017 does not seem to be the year. Source: Lyft pushes back profitability after increased burn - https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/14/unpacking-lyfts-projected-...

>Increased competition. Maybe I'm weird, but: 1) I don't even look at what the price of lyft is. So they could up the price by a significant percentage I wouldn't even notice. 2) Even if Uber was more expensive than lyft, I would almost definitely still take uber.

You're not weird and this is precisely why Uber is still the market leader. But there is a cohort, in some specific areas where Lyft's network is on par with Uber's such that price, and more specifically targeted discounts, do play a part. Lyft can analyze which one of its riders has not taken a ride in a while (and is hence presumably using Uber) and target them with discounts.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#216

Post by ironjunkie » Thu, Nov 30, 2017, 11:46 PM UTC

blhack wrote: post #155

misun78 wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Increased competition. Lyft is burning through money at an unprecedented rate to catch up with Uber given that they smell blood this year and investors ala Google are willing to subsidize the burn. At some point, this has to stop but 2017 does not seem to be the year. Source: Lyft pushes back profitability after increased burn - https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/14/unpacking-lyfts-projected-...

>Increased competition. Maybe I'm weird, but: 1) I don't even look at what the price of lyft is. So they could up the price by a significant percentage I wouldn't even notice. 2) Even if Uber was more expensive than lyft, I would almost definitely still take uber.

yes you are weird.

Every time I take an "expensive" ride (let's say more than 10$), I open both apps in parallel and take the cheapest. Even sometimes cancelling one to get the other if the price changed meanwhile.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#217

Post by harshgupta » Thu, Nov 30, 2017, 11:52 PM UTC

ihsw2 wrote: post #55

BinaryIdiot wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I am really perplexed with Uber's business model. They can't survive much longer and they can't keep getting injections of cash to stay alive, can they? It's rumored they'll IPO in 2019, if I remember correctly, which means they have to somehow survive until then to at least reach that stage. Are they planning to raise prices? Cut employees? What are they planning on doing here?

The idea is to drag the entire ride hailing industry underwater long enough to drown out competitors, and the trick is to do this without drowning themselves in the process. This is the nature of "predatory" pricing. There is something to be said for volume and if a couple competitors die in the process then Uber's volume can only go up. Unfortunately their competitors have found a variety of ways to keep from being…

Currently the biggest drag on their expenditure is drivers. Their golden bullet is making an efficient transition to self-driving, all while maintaining a leading position

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#218

Post by staticautomatic » Thu, Nov 30, 2017, 11:55 PM UTC

allenz wrote: post #121

staticautomatic wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think any Uber investors can be characterized as smart, even if they have made or end up making money.

Hindsight is always 2020.

Hardly. That has been my position for years. I have always believed that Uber's management made it a profoundly risky investment, and accordingly not smart. Reasonable minds will disagree with me. I'm entitled to think they're wrong.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#219

Post by bob_theslob646 » Thu, Nov 30, 2017, 11:57 PM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #73

bob_theslob646 wrote: post #62

> Uber Technologies Inc.’s net loss widened to $1.46 billion in the third quarter, according to people with knowledge of the matter, as the ride-hailing leader struggled to fend off competition, legal challenges and regulatory scrutiny. "according to people with knowledge of the matter.." How is reporting like this legal? Is this not speculation? It baffles me that no fact checking/ benchmarking exists for such a maj…

> How is reporting like this legal? Why wouldn’t it be? > Is this not speculation? No, in the same way that court decisions based on witness testimony are not. It is, of course, difficult for outside parties to verify the reporting, but journalism has never been legally bound to the standards appropriate to scientific research where reproducibility is key. > It baffles me that no fact checking/ benchmarking exists fo…

>It is, of course, difficult for outside parties to verify the reporting, but journalism has never been legally bound to the standards appropriate to scientific research where reproducibility is key

What about when false information could cause financial harm?

It is ironic considering that BBG( Bloomberg is private )

Is it wrong to question sources?

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#220

Post by ProAm » Thu, Nov 30, 2017, 11:57 PM UTC

notahacker wrote: post #210

ProAm wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course you can but most taxi companies do not want to be in the app development business. And most other ride hailing apps are not very good. They'd rather focus on their main line of work which is transportation. People know Uber, that app works, people would use it if it was available. The subsidizing is what made them a household name, along with the ease of use.

The other ride hailing apps are in the business of selling hailing services to taxi firms and have sales teams dedicated to doing so, are not despised by taxi firms, and provide solutions optimised for regulated taxi firms. If they tend to provide surprisingly few drivers and poor price estimations and the app companies are orders of magnitude smaller in terms of revenue and geographic spread, that's probably an indi…

Yeah to be honest I wasnt even considering the pricing algorithm but just the supply/demand matching portion of it. I feel there is a lot of value there, billions? Maybe but probably not, but I feel this is a huge asset if they run out of runway and need to stay in existence.