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Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

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Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#181

Post by alpha_squared »

apocalyptic0n3 wrote: post #35
mtremsal wrote: post #4

Uber has raised more than $11B over the years. Does anyone know how much of that is left and what their runway is? edit: runway to IPO I meant

Apparently they are at about $5.1B cash-on-hand, not including the potential $1B SoftBank investment. So they have about a year of runway right now.

> So they have about a year of runway right now.

I think that assumes their burn rate will not increase. Which, historically, is not the case. At their current increase of burn, assuming it is linear, they're probably looking at less than a year. Maybe even as little as 9 months.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#182

Post by T2_t2 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #10

Uber had $6.6bn on hand at the end of June [1]. That means they are down to $5.1bn. Absent cost-cutting, that implies a 9 to 12 month runway. Even if SoftBank injects $1bn, that could only mean a few months’ runway. A large fine in the Waymo case [2] could literally bankrupt them. [1] https://venturebeat.com/2017/08/23/uber-is-still-burning-cas... [2] https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/11/29/business/waymo-uber-tr...

Except... Growth.

The (buzzword warning) hyper-growth startup model is in essence 2X revenue, 1.5X costs. Repeat until inevitably profitable - and I say inevitably because with enough time, 2X revenue, 1.5X costs gets to profitable. The only variable there is having a long enough runway.

Uber seem, from the financial data I have seen, to be sticking to that playbook down to the 3rd decimal place (exaggeration for effect). When Uber does turn the profitability corner, it will be at a level well over a billion a quarter.

Sure it's a risk, but if any company was setup to be huge, had followed almost all the meta-rules on growth and looked to be hitting those growth targets, it is certainly Uber.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#183

Post by LrnByTeach »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #10

Uber had $6.6bn on hand at the end of June [1]. That means they are down to $5.1bn. Absent cost-cutting, that implies a 9 to 12 month runway. Even if SoftBank injects $1bn, that could only mean a few months’ runway. A large fine in the Waymo case [2] could literally bankrupt them. [1] https://venturebeat.com/2017/08/23/uber-is-still-burning-cas... [2] https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/11/29/business/waymo-uber-tr...

So Uber cash in bank will run thru end of 2018 .

That is exact time 2019 January google Waymo will be having driver less full autonomous Ride hailing service at least in 10 US Cities in limited routes of each city to begin with ( as Phonix driver less service is LIVE at this time).

Unless Uber driver less technology is ready for deployment for real world Ride hailing service by 2019 January (even in small limited routes in those 10 cities), Uber is in big trouble !!!!!

I think this Uber 30% lowered valuation is result of this two factors of perceived RISK that is

a) running out of money in one year

b) driver less technology readiness by 2019 for real world use

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#184

Post by maxxxxx »

ProAm wrote: post #179
maxxxxx wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"license their logistics software to a lot of companies." It's quite tricky to package an internally used system into something that can be sold and used by others. It most likely takes years to get to any significant amount of sales.

Every taxi company on earth would buy this immediately.

What exactly? Most taxi companies probably can run on a spreadsheet or s simple database. What does Uber have for them?

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#185

Post by jsonne »

malandrew wrote: post #175
jsonne wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem though is that they led the way by breaking down all the regulatory barrier to entries. Whats to stop anyone from starting a ridesharing company tomorrow?

Please name one comparatively successful ridesharing company founded in 2013 or later in any global market. I'll wait.

Here's a list of them in fact. Literally the top result on my Google SERP for "local uber competitors" http://mashable.com/2017/08/16/uber-global-rivals-didi/#vCa1...

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#186

Post by ProAm »

jdmichal wrote: post #180
ProAm wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every taxi company on earth would buy this immediately.

That is... Overly optimistic at best. You're assuming every taxi company on Earth: * Thinks they have a logistics problem in the first place. * Thinks that software can solve that problem. * Are in the market for software to solve that problem. * Think that Uber's software is the software that would solve that problem the best. That's a hell of a lot of assumptions, each of which is fairly easy to pick apart.

I politely disagree. Taxi companies hate ride sharing companies. As an industry that refused change for decades saw a software company come in and eat away market share quickly. If Uber were to 'go away' and allow the taxi company to use the ride hailing software they would be all over it. [1][2][3][4]

And this is just the taxi industry, there are plenty of industries that would love to use a logistics software to help their business. The only real magic Uber has is this software, the rest is easily replaceable or overhead.

[1] https://daymondjohnssuccessformula.com/launch-pad/cab-compan...

[2]https://www.watchdog.org/california/the-uber-effect-why-cab-...

[3] https://www.quora.com/Why-do-taxi-drivers-hate-Uber-if-its-c...

[4] https://therideshareguy.com/what-taxis-need-to-do-to-survive...

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#187

Post by ProAm »

maxxxxx wrote: post #184
ProAm wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every taxi company on earth would buy this immediately.

What exactly? Most taxi companies probably can run on a spreadsheet or s simple database. What does Uber have for them?

For ride hailing?

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#188

Post by jdmichal »

robryan wrote: post #177
ghaff wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>And once drivers are taken out of the picture, ride prices will plummet. 1. This is probably further out than a lot of people assume. Reliable door to door fully autonomous in dense cities is one of the hardest use cases to solve but it's more or less what you need for self-driving taxis. 2. The pricing probably also won't "plummet." The IRS mileage rate (about 53 cents/mile) is probably a reasonable floor to use. T…

Electric cars might do better on that mileage rate?

The IRS puts "variable costs" at about 14 cents per mile. So, yes they may do better, but not significantly better. Also, electric means either battery swaps or significantly longer refueling time. Not a problem for commuter cars with downtime anyway. But for a 24/7 business, that becomes more impactful.

https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/2017-standard-mileage-rates-for...

"The standard mileage rate for business is based on an annual study of the fixed and variable costs of operating an automobile. The rate for medical and moving purposes is based on the variable costs."

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#189

Post by maxxxxx »

ProAm wrote: post #187
maxxxxx wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What exactly? Most taxi companies probably can run on a spreadsheet or s simple database. What does Uber have for them?

For ride hailing?

And that would justify a 50 billion dollar valuation? They would need to create multi-billion dollar market to make it worthwhile. And also learn selling to businesses.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#190

Post by acchow »

LrnByTeach wrote: post #183
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #10

Uber had $6.6bn on hand at the end of June [1]. That means they are down to $5.1bn. Absent cost-cutting, that implies a 9 to 12 month runway. Even if SoftBank injects $1bn, that could only mean a few months’ runway. A large fine in the Waymo case [2] could literally bankrupt them. [1] https://venturebeat.com/2017/08/23/uber-is-still-burning-cas... [2] https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/11/29/business/waymo-uber-tr...

So Uber cash in bank will run thru end of 2018 . That is exact time 2019 January google Waymo will be having driver less full autonomous Ride hailing service at least in 10 US Cities in limited routes of each city to begin with ( as Phonix driver less service is LIVE at this time). Unless Uber driver less technology is ready for deployment for real world Ride hailing service by 2019 January (even in small limited rou…

Driverless cars in 10 cities by 2019? Without perfect sunny weather?
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