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Is Filecoin a $257 million Ponzi scheme? [pdf]

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Re: Is Filecoin a $257 million Ponzi scheme? [pdf]

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cool, what does this have to do with Filecoin, their ICO, and Ponzi schemes? A MLM scheme is that: a scheme requiring a central actor to pay commissions. This is why Bitcoin and decentralized currency has never fit this definition. You could say there are some abstract resemblances (BTC bagholders encourage others to buy) but this is just abstract and not specific enough to fit the definition. We've seen people run P…

The argument is that Bitcoin is a decentralized, globally distributed Ponzi scheme, in the same way that it asserts itself to be a decentralized, globally distributed payment network. It seems unfair for Bitcoin proponents to go around saying "it's gotta be centralized or it's not really X".

Unless the most basic definition of X relies on a central actor, like a Ponzi. In which case it's not only fair, but accurate.

Re: Is Filecoin a $257 million Ponzi scheme? [pdf]

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) Yes, and bitcoin isn’t the only player in town. 2) It’s not assured that major breakthroughs will occur within the bitcoin ecosystem, nor that they will fold back into it. I’m pretty familiar with bitcoin’s current technology developments. There are opinions, theories, and experiments flying around about how to build that rocket ship. Very very early and unclear. The energy usage is not sustainable; we don’t have…

It’s energy producing companies that worry about sustainability, not energy spending. Energy spending endeavors only worry about profitability. So it’s absolutely misguided to scold bitcoin over it’s use of energy and not do the same for instance to people heating up their apartments or driving cars or insert your energy spending activity. Increasing efficiency of bitcoins proof of work will simply bump the difficult…

There’s a difference between scolding energy usage and pointing out that the design itself, even if efficiency of that design is increased, is what leads to this spiraling energy expenditure that powers massive computational hashing power only to support that currency and nothing else (no other social or technical goals). There are better ways to design such a system to do more than perform endless hashing that is merely self-serving. Furthermore, there could be innovations related to a trustless system that will make bitcoin itself obsolete; the future of bitcoin as leader isn’t guaranteed.

This isn’t related to heating or driving efficiency.

Re: Is Filecoin a $257 million Ponzi scheme? [pdf]

#143
post #37
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bad news is that Diamond was able to correlate to status, a strong (if subjective) value that is part of humanity since always. BTC only appeal is its value as money ... Startup idea: Bitcoin wedding rings. A beautiful gold ring with a private key engraved on the inside. Give your loved one the gift of BTC! Your commitment to each other, eternalized on the global blockchain. Gentlemen may prefer blondes, but the…

I think that jewelry should have a property of showing off, so hidden private key wouldn't work that well. You need to have some mechanism how to show status. And that nicety factor was driven mostly by women decorum.

I predict at some point we’ll see a rap music video where they “make it rain” QR codes of high value Bitcoin addresses.

Re: Is Filecoin a $257 million Ponzi scheme? [pdf]

#144
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nested encryption doesn't change anything. The nested encryption scheme would have to be perfect as well, which is also a bad assumption. Even if you assume your crypto scheme is perfect you are still giving adversaries unlimited access to brute force your key. For security conscious parties (corp, gov, mostly) encryption is a failsafe when other layers of physical security fail. No one is trusting encryption to be t…

> The nested encryption scheme would have to be perfect as well, which is also a bad assumption. If that is true for your security model, then encryption is always pointless for you[1]. Later on, you mention "security conscious" parties, which means you understand that security is a cost gradient, meaning one size doesn't fit all, and less-than-perfect assurance has value in some contexts. Do I think the DoD is going…

> If that is true for your security model, then encryption is always pointless for you

I don't think that is true.

If your first line of defense is physical security that doesn't mean you don't use crypto. The person who can break your physical security can't necessarily break your crypto. Even if the crypto isn't perfect it may be good enough.

The point is that no one in the real world relies on crypto only. Everyone has a physical security layer and then crypto. That is just a fact of how corp, gov, and concerned individuals manage their data.

A distributed network with untrusted peers would radically change the accepted security model and in a way that I don't think any qualified decision maker would accept.

So maybe you can get consumers to use the network for the same thing they use Backblaze for, but Backblaze is already hella cheap, and I am pretty sure the distributed network will be more expensive, so where is the value prop to the people who don't care or aren't knowledgable about security?

Re: Is Filecoin a $257 million Ponzi scheme? [pdf]

#145
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) the point is, we’ve just started 2) How is it not assured that bitcoin will evolve? It evolves all the time. Are you even following the project? Energy spent correlates with incentive, incentive is based on price, price is based on demand/value. Where is demand/perceived value derived from is debatable. The rest of your message equally applies to all other endeavors where early movers have profited. Yes it’s a bub…

> How is it not assured that bitcoin will evolve? It evolves all the time. Are you even following the project? I mean, are you even following the project? Very, very basic changes like "let's change this parameter from 1 to 2" are incredibly contentious, leading to hard forks and loud debates and furious accusations that people are shills trying to ruin Bitcoin for personal profit. If we can't even behave ourselves f…

Bumping blocksize is contentious hardfork because not everybody is convinced it is the right way to scale (and i somewhat agree). Segwit otoh was implemented as backward compatible soft fork. Segwit2x is a deliberate attack on the network and i’m happy it failed.

Overall everybody got what they wanted - big blockers have BCH, conservatives have original BTC plus the capacity increase from segwit.

Re: Is Filecoin a $257 million Ponzi scheme? [pdf]

#146
post #14
post #3

edit: Weird, I thought I was commenting on another thread, about Nobel laureates criticizing Bitcoin. I saw it on my phone, then opened HN at my notebook to comment. I misread the title and commented here, but now I can't find the correct thread (was it flagged?). I am growing this idea that Bitcoin (and any cryptocurrency that is affected by aggressive price growth) is an anti-fragile indirect multilevel marketing s…

The bad news is that Diamond was able to correlate to status, a strong (if subjective) value that is part of humanity since always. BTC only appeal is its value as money ... Startup idea: Bitcoin wedding rings. A beautiful gold ring with a private key engraved on the inside. Give your loved one the gift of BTC! Your commitment to each other, eternalized on the global blockchain. Gentlemen may prefer blondes, but the…

The problem is how do you get the private key engraved without sharing it with the jeweler or whoever?

Re: Is Filecoin a $257 million Ponzi scheme? [pdf]

#147
post #64
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dropbox feels like the wrong thing to compare it to. IPFS isn't really for storing files privately. Public S3 buckets would be closer. I don't have any numbers to say if it's overvalued based on how much public cloud storage there is (I wouldn't be surprised if it were though).

Storage costs are hyper-deflationary. We have a NAS on a desk with 27 terabytes of storage and it cost under $1000 (with drives) and consumes about 40 watts of power. Ten years ago this would have cost closer to $5000-$10000 and consumed hundreds of watts of power. We bought it about a year and a half ago and already we could replace it for less than $500. The idea of distributed storage at the edge is interesting bu…

There's a lot to agree with and disagree with here.

Sia is currently (barely) working and was built for $1.25M, so $250M clearly isn't needed (except maybe for marketing, which generally costs more than development).

I don't think the approach of "the simplest thing that could possibly work" applies to the decentralized/blockchain space. When money is at stake, attackers come out of the woodwork.

Re: Is Filecoin a $257 million Ponzi scheme? [pdf]

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hey, Sia core dev here. From the beginning, we've prided ourselves writing code instead of pushing PR pieces and designing flashy websites. So I'm glad that you (and others) picked up on those values. By keeping our heads down, we've built the only truly distributed and decentralized marketplace for storage, and we did it with a team and a budget far smaller than our competitors. Thanks for your support -- posts like…

Hi, Tribler dev here. awesome to see everybody here.. Do Sia and Filecoin take into account the "oversupply problem"? Filecoin devs nicely explain their sybil-attack strategy with growing your identity. However, how can you earn credits if nobody likes you and you happen to have a low-performance node? Is this a real problem or are we missing something? For details, see our journal article on a macroeconomic sharing…

Hey, great question! (i am filecoin/ipfs/etc employee)

I am going to give some definitions (please chip in case of my misunderstanding) - “nobody likes you”: reputation is not central to Filecoin, so I guess you cannot be “not liked”. Whether you are trusted or not, the clients will pay you only if you have provided a proof of having offered a service. Note: Filecoin has pseudonyms, if for some reasons your address is not liked, you can create a new Filecoin address. So every “not liked” case eventually reduces to being a new user. TL;DR I will assume you mean “a new user”. - “low-performance node”: Filecoin does not require special hardware, but off-the-shelf CPUs, and whether you have 1 or 1000, it should not matter in practice (all the operations are sequential). I wouldn’t consider the amount of storage as “performance”, your node can always participate as a small miner. If by low performance you mean faulty hardware, then you are really not contributing to the network. So I am going to consider “low-performance” to mean slow network connection.

Now, if you are a new node without much track record and with a bad internet connection, you could: - participate as a Storage Miner in the Storage Market (your job will be mainly storing the file and generate proofs offline that you have stored the file, you will need just enough internet connection to be updated with the head of the chain) and every now and then (even with a bad network connection), submit the proofs to the chain. In addition, if you are happy listening to new transactions and have enough storage (unless you consider yourself REALLY lucky), then you can participate to mining Filecoin and earn tokens from transaction fees and mining rewards. My strategy would be to start with lower prices than the rest of the network, if you are also mining, block reward could cover for your lower prices - participate as a Retrieval Miner, you might not be that successful in comparison to fast speed super connected nodes that have incredible amount of storage, BUT you could try to store and serve “rare” files or serve to nodes that are closer to you (since you could become their node of preference)

I took advantage to explain my reasoning so that others could find this helpful too :) I will take a look at the paper, thanks for sharing, there is a lot the community can learn from the first wave of p2p file sharing.

Re: Is Filecoin a $257 million Ponzi scheme? [pdf]

#149
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This and that there is a hard upper limit on the amount of bitcoin available. There will be no QE of bitcoin.

until the miners are convinced otherwise bit like the central banks

not at all like central banks because mining is decentralized. Besides, there are also users and merchants who are just as important and miners don’t dare pushing changes that nobody wants.

Re: Is Filecoin a $257 million Ponzi scheme? [pdf]

#150

I think the top comment for this should be about Filecoin, instead of just another uninformed comments about Bitcoin that we see here every day. That said, one thing most people don't talk about is: I think most people think IPFS is disruptive, but I think IPFS itself is susceptible to disruption. The main reason why IPFS is useful is because there's not an easy way to do NAT traversal therefore it's super hard for p…

I met Juan back in 2014, where us (Feross, Substack, Max Ogden, Mafintosh, and others) all showed off our P2P projects. How times have changed since then!

I can attest to the usefulness of Filecoin. But I do think you are right in that IPFS is for immutable file/asset storage, and not as efficient for mutable data. David, one of the core teams at IPFS, reached out to me the other week about how CRDTs on top of IPFS can fix that. That is what we have solved, mutable graph data that can update in realtime or offline, across a ad-hoc mesh network.

IPFS is still critical here though, because using our Radix Storage Engine (just released) adapter, we can batch high volume mutable data to disk (aka IPFS) for storage and retrieval, which once fetched gun kicks back into gear and does sync.

Ethereum is just not at this scale yet, last I heard it was doing about 7 transactions per second (and Bitcoin doing 4). We're doing 2K end-to-end (across a 4 peer network hop) table inserts/second! I demo this on stage here: https://youtu.be/nTbUCTgLmkY

In that talk, I also explain how to do load testing across a distributed system in order to verify its correctness, aka do simulations on failures like with Kyle Kingsbury's (Aphyr) Jepsen Tests.

So while Filecoin isn't ready yet, its market cap represents a massive emerging opportunity. If Uber unicorn-ed crowdsourced transportation, imagine what a truly P2P incentivized crowdsourced storage system could do. Remember, all machines need electricity (Bitcoin), computation (Ethereum), storage (filecoin), and bandwidth (what we're tackling, with data sync, and incentives).

If you look at it in that context, it makes sense. Hopefully the crypto-P2P community will deliver :) to keep up with the demand. Cheers!

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