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Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

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Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#101
post #34

Better source, and one that the article references: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-29/uber-s-th... At this point, two things are clear to me: 1) Uber will IPO, there's just oo much money and influence behind it to stop that. 2) I'd be really worried if I was an employee about my options and also about my job. Employee's now ahve two large worries hanging over their heads..... What about my job and wh…

When looking at SNAP vs UBER, I think that this negative publicity will stop that first positive bump. Each negative scandal after will hit their stock hard, along with each quarter report. I do agree it will happen, but I think most everyone will see through it. Given their burn rate and their IPO scheduled for 2019, they will still struggle to get there even with the incoming round. At this point it's hard to find…

Winners besides Lyft? Their financials are on-par if not worse - https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/14/unpacking-lyfts-projected-...

Part of Uber's increased losses are stemming directly from massive burn on Lyfts end to try and capitalize on Uber's problems.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#102
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A third worry: Uber's brand on your resume. At every turn there just seems like increasingly shady stuff coming out of there: covering up data breaches, covering up IP theft, etc.

Every person who I know has left Uber this year is at some company HN would probably agree as "better" (FANGs as backup, startups if more adventurous). So unless you're in the handful caught in the crossfire of these issues, Uber is an extremely strong brand name on a resume.

Maybe. I've interviewed people eager to leave Uber and the name was mixed for us. I see it as an indicator of technical talent, but a culture risk for sure. Clearly a lot of people at Uber at least acquiesced in the face of unethical, abusive, or outright criminal behavior. That's not a character trait I'm excited about having on my teams.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#103

Uber had $6.6bn on hand at the end of June [1]. That means they are down to $5.1bn. Absent cost-cutting, that implies a 9 to 12 month runway. Even if SoftBank injects $1bn, that could only mean a few months’ runway. A large fine in the Waymo case [2] could literally bankrupt them. [1] https://venturebeat.com/2017/08/23/uber-is-still-burning-cas... [2] https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/11/29/business/waymo-uber-tr...

Yeah I am really perplexed with Uber's business model. They can't survive much longer and they can't keep getting injections of cash to stay alive, can they? It's rumored they'll IPO in 2019, if I remember correctly, which means they have to somehow survive until then to at least reach that stage. Are they planning to raise prices? Cut employees? What are they planning on doing here?

If Uber had to, they could flip the profit switch. They haven’t chosen to because they’re reinvesting in growth, but if it was an existential question they could survive in the short term.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#104
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if they manage to kill their competition -- and I'm not expecting they will -- I don't understand what their endgame is. I don't see what their moat is. Ridesharing companies are not hard or expensive to start. They'll have a hard time extracting monopoly rents, and there isn't much of an economy of scale they can reap. And once autonomous cars become part of the picture, I think they're in an even worse positio…

> Ridesharing companies are not hard or expensive to start. There is a lot of work that goes into the infrastructure behind companies like Uber and Lyft. You need good engineers that build products that are reliable and well tested, to work 24/7. It is a hard problem. A lot of the smaller city taxi companies that have apps contract to larger vendors as well.

You need good engineers that build products that are reliable and well tested, to work 24/7

So did newspapers - the very definition of mission-critical computing is the the paper HAS to hit the stands the next morning. Didn't save them from half-arsed competitors running glorified blogs...

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are Uber's costs really in the tech space? It's a complex tech operation for sure, but I wouldn't have thought they could make up much of the 1.5bn USD if they fired a bunch of developers. These bulk of these costs must be in marketing, customer acquisition and discounted fares, right?

They have around 12,000 employees according to Wikipedia (and a few other sources show a similar figure). If we figure the average employee is 250,000/year in liabilities on the balance sheet (salary + benefits + options/RSUs) then thats $3 billion a year in employee expenses. I don't think $250k is too unrealistic considering the massive capital gains many employees must have on paper as well as the high level of ta…

Uber has a lot of Operations staff all around the world who are getting faaar less than $250K a year (even if you add everything in the kitchen sink to reach the compensation number). And by faar I mean an order of magnitude less.

Other than engineering they also have a lot of people going around mapping cities, QAing those maps etc.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#106
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would LOVE to develop an Uber clone and pitch it to Governments around the world. We could even link them up so you have one unified account for people who cross borders. The government and taxpayer could then take any profit (or operate at a loss / break even if they want to subsidise costs for their citizens). The customer acquisition / marketing costs would be almost zero if the government mandates it as the onl…

Have you seen software developed by the government? Outside of things like NSA spying, military things, etc, it's generally terrible, I doubt there are many governments that could pull this off

The government wouldn’t actually build it, it would be built by a private company that licenses it to governments. No need to reinvent the same tech over and over.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#107
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"controlled expenditures through higher pricing and "friendlier" demeanor" - Assuming this refers to Lyft, Lyft's expenses compared dollar to dollar are on-par if not worse than Ubers - https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/14/unpacking-lyfts-projected-... As long as Uber can keep the cost per ride lower than other competitors, it just needs to wait for the burn to end faster on the competitors side before turning break-eve…

even if lyft's burn-to-revenue ratio is higher, their burn is still lower that uber's, and it's going to cost a lot fewer incremental dollars to prop up lyft's burn than uber's for a few years. some interested parties (waymo/alphabet) might be happy to foot that bill.

Definitely this. It takes a lot of effort to burn through as much cash as Uber is and moving the needle in Lyft's favor requires a lot less effort, which is where things get dangerous for Uber.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#108
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if they manage to kill their competition -- and I'm not expecting they will -- I don't understand what their endgame is. I don't see what their moat is. Ridesharing companies are not hard or expensive to start. They'll have a hard time extracting monopoly rents, and there isn't much of an economy of scale they can reap. And once autonomous cars become part of the picture, I think they're in an even worse positio…

> Ridesharing companies are not hard or expensive to start. There is a lot of work that goes into the infrastructure behind companies like Uber and Lyft. You need good engineers that build products that are reliable and well tested, to work 24/7. It is a hard problem. A lot of the smaller city taxi companies that have apps contract to larger vendors as well.

The backend systems can be SaaS. Amazon could do it. Anyone can then buy a local franchise for that backend service in their area. Or it could be offered whitelabel.

Re: Uber’s Losses Widen as SoftBank Launches Bid to Buy Shares

#109
post #87
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea is to drag the entire ride hailing industry underwater long enough to drown out competitors, and the trick is to do this without drowning themselves in the process. This is the nature of "predatory" pricing. There is something to be said for volume and if a couple competitors die in the process then Uber's volume can only go up. Unfortunately their competitors have found a variety of ways to keep from being…

Even if they manage to kill their competition -- and I'm not expecting they will -- I don't understand what their endgame is. I don't see what their moat is. Ridesharing companies are not hard or expensive to start. They'll have a hard time extracting monopoly rents, and there isn't much of an economy of scale they can reap. And once autonomous cars become part of the picture, I think they're in an even worse positio…

Offerings like Uber Pool and Lyft Line are the future of the business and depend entirely on economies of scale. Putting multiple paying passengers in the car at once and reducing driver downtime completely changes the economics, but only if there is a high density of riders and drivers.

Edit:

There are two possible stories here about Uber and Lyft's losses, and we can't tell which is right from the outside.

1. Uber and Lyft are in a price war death spiral, heavily subsidizing all rides to compete. Their only hope is for all competitors to die, so they can take over the whole market and raise prices. Then vague hopes of lowering costs with self-driving tech and take the surplus as profit. The plan doesn't seem viable, since they have no moat and they can't outspend GM and other self-driving players.

2. Uber and Lyft can actually make a profit in mature markets, but choose to subsidize rides in growing markets, on the theory that growing the market size increases the long term profit opportunity. The data we need to evaluate this idea isn't public, however Uber did a "prove it" quarter in 2016 where they turned the spigots to be profitable in the US. They are now pursuing growth in the US again, expanding to a larger territory and expanding Pool and other offerings like flat-rate passes in mature cities. Under this model, Uber could at any time decide to become profitable, but the revenue growth would stop, placing a cap on the valuation. Notably, there is no "predatory pricing" here.

With internal finances, we could easily tell whether option 2 is valid. You can bet Uber is constantly doing experiments on price elasticity of demand and knows exactly where the truth is. You can bet Softbank has seen numbers we have not. If Uber wants to IPO, I would expect them to provide additional public info, possibly pivoting to profitability again in the US. But doing a pivot like that permanently reduces the size of the opportunity, allowing Lyft to capture that new market instead, so they may be reluctant to do it large scale.

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