141–150 of 223 posts
Shameless plug (but related): https://isthestockmarketgoingtocrash.com/ Posted this here a while ago and people seemed to like it.
What is the best thing to do with my savings? I am thinking about investing, and read up on it. One thing I don't understand is where to put money to minimize the impact of a recession. Government bonds? But then Graham says, I think, bonds prices also rise in a bull market, and fall afterwards.
10% gov bonds and rest in Vanguard S&P 500 index funds, and just ride the market average for next 30 years is Buffet's advice since it has the least management fees https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14259538
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But if this was only the US policy how come there is such a bubble in bitcoin? Is this a sign of a bubble or people trying to hedge against a crash?
Expansive monetary policy has happened in many places around the world, Europe, UK, Japan - not just the US. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing It's curious that something that was done as a measure to alleviate the effects of a previous crash is creating another bubble and (probably) another eventual crash. My guess is the explosion in money going into cryptocurrencies is partly because of that - more…
The funny thing is how said people often then come to genuinely believe they believe or understand Bitcoin, when in reality they’ll scatter at the first sign of a major correction. In fact, increasing conviction about an outcome after a person has paid money to bet on it is a well studied cognitive bias.
Honest question: is there any unavoidable reason why there cannot be a permanent bull market? I mean, apart from empirical/historical observation reasons (I don't find those very compelling, as some stuff in economics seems to never happen until it happens). Given the low interest rates, people are growingly investing in diversified stocks to obtain profits in the long term. Index funds are growing, which don't even…
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Please don't take offence, but you've misunderstood the mechanics of how wealth is accumulated. The wealthiest people in the world are wealthy by virtue of the gains made on the assets they already have. So, in a bull market, their assets grow while someone without assets is left behind. The inverse is true, too - they'll proportionally lose to the same degree in a crash - as while a poor person may have no investmen…
> This is clearly false - wealthy people don't keep mountains of cash lying around as they would miss out on the growth in bull markets, and as a result their wealth would decrease relative to their peers. Some wealthy people do. E.g. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway was sitting on 100 billion dollar in cash last summer [1]. If he doesn't find anything that is fairly priced, he prefers to sit on his cash and wait.…
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It will happen before 2020, the question is when exactly it will hit. My money is on late 2018 or early 2019. What to do before then? Don't have any money in US stocks. Diversify both geographically and sector-wise, cash out, be ready to invest when stocks crash through the floor, to ride the wave when they inevitably rise again. The real trick is spotting who's going to rise again and who's going to be left behind.…
> It will happen before 2020, the question is when exactly it will hit. What will be the catalyst? Just because we haven't had a recession in awhile is not enough. Corporate profits are up, consumer spending is up, and even though everyone on here thinks the numbers are lies, wages are starting to go up. > My money is on late 2018 or early 2019. So you have already either shorted the market or bought put options out…
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It will happen before 2020, the question is when exactly it will hit. My money is on late 2018 or early 2019. What to do before then? Don't have any money in US stocks. Diversify both geographically and sector-wise, cash out, be ready to invest when stocks crash through the floor, to ride the wave when they inevitably rise again. The real trick is spotting who's going to rise again and who's going to be left behind.…
It will happen before 2020 Have you really put your own money on that? We're going to need solar and wind power in the future, and batteries. Lots of batteries. Do you really think you have some big insight here that the rest of the investment community hasn't thought about?
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Not cash.
Could you explain why? In 08/09 everything became cheaper -> cash became more expensive. Isn't it?
Honest question: is there any unavoidable reason why there cannot be a permanent bull market? I mean, apart from empirical/historical observation reasons (I don't find those very compelling, as some stuff in economics seems to never happen until it happens). Given the low interest rates, people are growingly investing in diversified stocks to obtain profits in the long term. Index funds are growing, which don't even…
Economy is tied to real consumption of finite resources. As we mine, fish, over harvest, burn, etc. our way out of some resources, we tend to find substitutes or other efficiencies to begin again. But... there is the question of whether our economic growth brings us closer to the absolute carrying capacity of spaceship Earth. So yeah, economic growth can’t continue forever without hitting some bio-physical constraint…
The next market recession will happen the same as the previous ones: some lucky people will predict it, most won't, and everyone will in hindsight declare how obvious the signs were. The best strategy is still to diversify your investments, keep enough emergency assets to ride the wave, and not worry about it.
Completely agree with this mindset. All the non-cash assets and investments I hold onto I intend to keep for over 20 years. Short term corrections in the market even as bad as 2008/9 don't concern me. As long as you're not speculating debt against market performance and have emergency cash on hand you can hold and buy the assets at a lower valuation.