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What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

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Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the value of stock supposed to equal the GDP? It is my understanding that the value of a stock should be equal to present value of future cash flows. If those future cash flows are growing faster than the discount rate then a value higher than 100% of GDP is to be expected.

Agreed. I've never come across this particular metric before, but intuitively I would have expected something more akin to a P/E ratio in the 10's or even 20's, not a factor of 1x. Can anyone explain here why the stock market cap isn't much, much higher than a single year's GDP? Is it because GDP is essentially "revenue" while market cap is "discounted future profits" -- and thus 20 years of 5% profit is going to be…

There are only ~5,000 publicly traded companies in the U.S. There are about 25 Million small businesses in the U.S. The stock market cap represents a tiny portion of the entire U.S. economy.

Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is a lot of people are momentum investing, hold and forget. kind of a variations on greater fool theory. eventually if I wait long enough someone will come along and buy this for what I paid or maybe more.

Why is that a problem? Isn't "buy and hold" a sound strategy that is recommended by financial experts. Rather than "buy and constantly trade"

Depends on your time frame- there's a big difference between optimizing for year over year gains vs. 25+ years.

Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

#123

Honest question: is there any unavoidable reason why there cannot be a permanent bull market? I mean, apart from empirical/historical observation reasons (I don't find those very compelling, as some stuff in economics seems to never happen until it happens). Given the low interest rates, people are growingly investing in diversified stocks to obtain profits in the long term. Index funds are growing, which don't even…

Credit cycle is one reason. Low interest rates mean higher bond prices (this is an inherent attribute of debt pricing, look at pricing of high yield debt the last few years vs fed funds rate as an example), lower interest rates also lead to lower expected return / higher stock prices (CAPM), and higher interest rates lead to falls in those prices

When interest rates are low and money is cheap, people take on more debt. Investors also invest in riskier assets because more money is available and competition for assets is greater. Eventually, default rates rise as there are more bad credits, and equity markets build up a lot of negative "potential energy" as prices rise based on increasing money supply. When interest rates rise, the reverse happens

This is probably not exactly what you were looking for, but it's one reason why we have cycles

Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

#124

What is the best thing to do with my savings? I am thinking about investing, and read up on it. One thing I don't understand is where to put money to minimize the impact of a recession. Government bonds? But then Graham says, I think, bonds prices also rise in a bull market, and fall afterwards.

Traditionally bonds and stocks move inversely: stocks are higher risk and correspondingly higher returns. But of course they have to add up to the overall economy; fundamentally you should expect to make more money when the world is being more productive and less money when the world is being less productive, and any investment that doesn't have that behaviour is going to be artificial and disconnected from actual productivity, making it unlikely to be a good bet in the long run. (See Buffet's comments about a gold cube). If you're investing for more than 10 years, the best thing is not to worry about recessions: they're part of the cycle, and even out in the long run; just buy and hold and eventually you'll come out ahead. If you're investing with a particular deadline less than 10 years in the future (e.g. as you get towards retirement) then it's traditional to shift your portfolio towards lower-risk, lower-return investments (indeed government bonds as you suggest); some retirement accounts do this "automatically".

Traditional advice is to invest largely within your own country so that you're not taking on extra currency risk, to keep a certain amount of cash/gold/what-have-you just in case of a huge general crash, and to get appropriate exposure to property. There are two contradictory schools of thought on this: 1) treat it as an asset class, hold a similar proportion what you hold in stocks/bonds 2) you will need one home for the rest of your life, ensure you have exactly one home's worth of exposure to the property market, otherwise property makes no sense as an investment for the same reason as the gold cube.

There are only a couple of free lunches in investment: tax efficiency and low fees. So those are the main places to look to optimise: your local legal environment will probably offer various tax-advantaged forms of savings to encourage particular kinds of saving (e.g. retirement accounts), and while most funds will have average performance in the long run, a low-fee fund means you'll keep more of the benefits (if you're in the US, Vanguard is commonly recommended).

Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

#125
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "growth" (i.e. inflation) before the inevitable crash What you need to know is this: Financial crashes are an eternal cycle, they will never go away. Unless there is fundamental societal change. Here's why: Financial crashes are business to a couple of extremely powerful/rich people. After every crash, assets are undervalued. Rich people have the financial cushion to not be impacted in the slightest way by such cra…

Ah yes, the Flimflam-Fo Equation with its key parameters, "rich person a" and "rich person b". Conspiracy theories might well be defined just by the application of the fallacy, "if someone benefits, then they intended it". And here we see this fallacy being applied. Sound like a textbook conspiracy to me. The extremely weathly are not interested in increasing their net wealth, only in specific purchases to further th…

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Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

#126
post #120

After basically 0% net growth in the market for over a year leading up to the election, there has been a 25% boom beginning exactly on the day after Trump won. That is no coincidence. The markets are anticipating Trump's promised massive deregulatory push (already well underway), tax cuts, a more union-hostile Justice Department and NLRB, and other business-friendly changes.

The funny thing is that most of those things have not happened yet and the first market reaction on election night was that Trump’s victory was a very bad thing.

Markets price in expectations of future events. Yes, there was indeed a panicked frenzy in the futures market. But by the next morning, the consensus clearly emerged that the result was a positive thing for the stock market.

Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

#127

After basically 0% net growth in the market for over a year leading up to the election, there has been a 25% boom beginning exactly on the day after Trump won. That is no coincidence. The markets are anticipating Trump's promised massive deregulatory push (already well underway), tax cuts, a more union-hostile Justice Department and NLRB, and other business-friendly changes.

Nice cherry-picking ;-)

Look at the market at virtually any larger timeframe, and you'll see that the market is marching along almost exactly as it has over the past ten years. To attribute all gains since Nov 8th to the market's confidence in Donald Trump is completely ridiculous.

Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

#128
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The funny thing is that most of those things have not happened yet and the first market reaction on election night was that Trump’s victory was a very bad thing.

Markets price in expectations of future events. Yes, there was indeed a panicked frenzy in the futures market. But by the next morning, the consensus clearly emerged that the result was a positive thing for the stock market.

I agree, but people forecast the stock market to go up again in the next year due to the tax reform but that was alredy the reason for most of the gains in the last year... And it's not yet a sure thing.

Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

#129

Honest question: is there any unavoidable reason why there cannot be a permanent bull market? I mean, apart from empirical/historical observation reasons (I don't find those very compelling, as some stuff in economics seems to never happen until it happens). Given the low interest rates, people are growingly investing in diversified stocks to obtain profits in the long term. Index funds are growing, which don't even…

Ah yes, this time it’s different.

Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

#130
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> invest in renewable energy and related sectors Isn't the problem in investing in that that there's really no way to know which particular business will come out on top here since there really isn't any large barriers of entry?

That's what hedging is for, you bet that for example, in the overall energy landscape, renewals are going to go up more than "legacy" energy companies, but still protect yourself from overall sector moves.

Ah, thanks for that explanation! I wasn't aware of what the hedge part meant. But now I could connect it to an idea.
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