Would BTC prices rise or fall after this hypothetical crash?
Depends on if there is a kind of liquidity crunch. People could be called on to sell BTC to offset problems that arise out of an issue with other markets.
What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market
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Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market
#42I'd love to know how far away from the next crash people think we are. And where they think is a safe place to put money when that happens.
It will happen before 2020, the question is when exactly it will hit. My money is on late 2018 or early 2019. What to do before then? Don't have any money in US stocks. Diversify both geographically and sector-wise, cash out, be ready to invest when stocks crash through the floor, to ride the wave when they inevitably rise again. The real trick is spotting who's going to rise again and who's going to be left behind.…
> invest in renewable energy and related sectors
Isn't the problem in investing in that that there's really no way to know which particular business will come out on top here since there really isn't any large barriers of entry?
Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market
#43Would BTC prices rise or fall after this hypothetical crash?
With traditional investments becoming unattractive during a recession - I'd assume this will be favorable to Bitcoin.
Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market
#44A bubble in slow motion, someone called the present economic environment. I think it's an apt description. Extreme "quantitative easing" (I refuse to take fed speak seriously) has only taken effect very, very slowly. Why? Because all it really was was recapitalizing banks which had enormous gaping holes on their balance sheets after 2008. They have been able to fill the tanks now, getting money hot off the presses fo…
> "growth" (i.e. inflation) before the inevitable crash
What you need to know is this: Financial crashes are an eternal cycle, they will never go away. Unless there is fundamental societal change.
Here's why: Financial crashes are business to a couple of extremely powerful/rich people. After every crash, assets are undervalued. Rich people have the financial cushion to not be impacted in the slightest way by such crashes. Which means they are in a position to purchase these undervalued assets from poorer people. The rich-poor imbalance grows further, as these undervalued assets regain their "real" value. That's the reason why these crashes are manufactured. Which means a couple of powerful/rich people will continually steer society in this direction, for example by removing laws that were put in place as safeguards.
Edit: And no, this is not conspiracy, it's pure economics.
Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market
#45Would BTC prices rise or fall after this hypothetical crash?
My guess is the price would fall quite a bit, since the value of BTC currently is largely speculative. Like stocks, there would be a frenzy to turn these risky investments into cash ASAP.
Stranger stuff has happened though. Maybe the value would hold, and BTC really does become the "new gold".
Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not an economist. But here is my arm-chair philosophizing about what is happening. To combat the economic crisis we started printing a lot of money. This had two effects: the interest on savings went way down, and the loans became very cheap. Having money = bad, having debts = good, at least for those who can carry the burden. This was done in order to incentivize investing, thus growing the economy. Obviously, t…
What rate do you consider hyperinflation? Are we in it now? What measure are you using? Afaik we’ve been running under 2% inflation for quite some time.
Stuff we dont need have actually been decreasing in prices (tv, electronics)
Stuff we actually need like housing, healthcare (in the US), and education have been rising faster than 2%.
Assets too like stocks have risen much higher as well.
Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market
#47Shameless plug (but related): https://isthestockmarketgoingtocrash.com/ Posted this here a while ago and people seemed to like it.
I wonder what makes them think the stock market is overvalued. Increasing inequality combined with market saturation and the current difficulty to start a competitive business means it makes perfect sense that stock prices are historically high. Combine with the fact that passive index investing has become the norm, and it seems like it will be a new normal.
It explains each of the indicators on the page. Click the "Market Overvaluation" button (albeit with a pretty poor UI and terrible URL support so I can't link it).
It's basically the value of US companies on the stock market divided by the GDP, $27 trillion / $20 trillion = 135%.
Although it makes you wonder about if all that stashed money overseas is having a significant impact on that.
Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
It will happen before 2020, the question is when exactly it will hit. My money is on late 2018 or early 2019. What to do before then? Don't have any money in US stocks. Diversify both geographically and sector-wise, cash out, be ready to invest when stocks crash through the floor, to ride the wave when they inevitably rise again. The real trick is spotting who's going to rise again and who's going to be left behind.…
> invest in renewable energy and related sectors Isn't the problem in investing in that that there's really no way to know which particular business will come out on top here since there really isn't any large barriers of entry?
Yes, and that's the trick (plus luck).
Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market
#49Could a mod remove the tracking parameters from that URL?
Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
I wonder what makes them think the stock market is overvalued. Increasing inequality combined with market saturation and the current difficulty to start a competitive business means it makes perfect sense that stock prices are historically high. Combine with the fact that passive index investing has become the norm, and it seems like it will be a new normal.
It explains each of the indicators on the page. Click the "Market Overvaluation" button (albeit with a pretty poor UI and terrible URL support so I can't link it). It's basically the value of US companies on the stock market divided by the GDP, $27 trillion / $20 trillion = 135%. Although it makes you wonder about if all that stashed money overseas is having a significant impact on that.
Wouldn’t companies with a strong international presence (e.g. Apple) contribute to that? It seems like increased globalization could explain that high ratio rather than “overvaluation.”