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Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

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Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#41

Post by singold »

tobyhinloopen wrote: post #13
linards wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

how do you know?

How do I know what? That it will crash and burn? Because it is a useless resource. It is only worth something because other people say it is worth something, and unlike paper money it is not backed by anything significant. It is a bubble of hot air, ready to pop at any time. It might continue rising for years or decades. But it is not usable as a real currency, so it will always remain a useless waste of resources. T…

To be fair, I don't think paper money is backed by anything more than "trust" in the goverments that print it, and that people will accept that as payment.

If you "trust" the bitcoin network, and think that someone may accept bitcoin in exchange for something that you want, it looks pretty similar (obviously not comparable in scale yet)

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#44

Post by 0bsidian »

Nursie wrote: post #36
DINKDINK wrote: post #17

Was the collapse of the German Deutsche Mark, the Zimbabwean Dollar, the Venezuelan Bollivar a bubble too? Good money drives bad money out, so I’d argue that no, Bitcoin’s price is not a bubble. Clearly there’s no price that bitcoin holders will sell at so they’re clearly exiting the USD ecosystem. I think the logical fallacy that’s occuring right now with critics of bitcoin’s price rise is that all bubbles has drama…

Bitcoin on the main chain has scarcity. Anyone can fork the codebase, or even the blockchain, or one of the many other blockchains out there. There is absolutely nothing provable about BTC as a store of wealth. The amount of leaves produced by the cherry tree in my back garden during its expected lifetime is limited too, that doesn't make them a provable store of wealth.

>Anyone can fork the codebase, or even the blockchain, or one of the many other blockchains out there. There is absolutely nothing provable about BTC as a store of wealth.

Let's rewrite the above as follows:

>Anyone can copy Facebook's model, or even its code, or one of the many other social networks out there. There is absolutely nothing provable about facebook as a good social network.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#46

Post by aquadrop »

tobyhinloopen wrote: post #13
linards wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

how do you know?

How do I know what? That it will crash and burn? Because it is a useless resource. It is only worth something because other people say it is worth something, and unlike paper money it is not backed by anything significant. It is a bubble of hot air, ready to pop at any time. It might continue rising for years or decades. But it is not usable as a real currency, so it will always remain a useless waste of resources. T…

Paper money also worth something because other people say it's worth something. You can't buy anything with Czech krones in some Kenyan village, because people there don't its worth.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#47

Post by doktrin »

DINKDINK wrote: post #17

Was the collapse of the German Deutsche Mark, the Zimbabwean Dollar, the Venezuelan Bollivar a bubble too? Good money drives bad money out, so I’d argue that no, Bitcoin’s price is not a bubble. Clearly there’s no price that bitcoin holders will sell at so they’re clearly exiting the USD ecosystem. I think the logical fallacy that’s occuring right now with critics of bitcoin’s price rise is that all bubbles has drama…

> Clearly there’s no price that bitcoin holders will sell at so they’re clearly exiting the USD ecosystem

This may be true for some idealists, but most people view Bitcoin as an investment and haven't "exited" the USD ecosystem anymore than if they'd bought shares or bonds.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#48

Post by pmorici »

Calculating a P/E on transaction fees seems silly because frees on a crypto currency aren't related to the amount of value moved they are related to the number of bytes of space your transaction takes which in a simple transaction is most effected by the number of source and destination addresses used in the transaction.

A better way to calculate this fake P/E ratio would be to look at the total USD volume of Bitcoin transactions and take 2% of that as the "earnings" logic being that if a coin were a credit card like company their earnings would be 2% of thier transaction volume. Still a bit of a contrived metric but at least related to the economic activity taking place.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#49

Post by qf303rjr3 »

DINKDINK wrote: post #17

Was the collapse of the German Deutsche Mark, the Zimbabwean Dollar, the Venezuelan Bollivar a bubble too? Good money drives bad money out, so I’d argue that no, Bitcoin’s price is not a bubble. Clearly there’s no price that bitcoin holders will sell at so they’re clearly exiting the USD ecosystem. I think the logical fallacy that’s occuring right now with critics of bitcoin’s price rise is that all bubbles has drama…

> Clearly there’s no price that bitcoin holders will sell at so they’re clearly exiting the USD ecosystem.

I reckon there would be a lot of sellers if the price went to $1000.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#50

Post by Nursie »

0bsidian wrote: post #44
Nursie wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin on the main chain has scarcity. Anyone can fork the codebase, or even the blockchain, or one of the many other blockchains out there. There is absolutely nothing provable about BTC as a store of wealth. The amount of leaves produced by the cherry tree in my back garden during its expected lifetime is limited too, that doesn't make them a provable store of wealth.

>Anyone can fork the codebase, or even the blockchain, or one of the many other blockchains out there. There is absolutely nothing provable about BTC as a store of wealth. Let's rewrite the above as follows: >Anyone can copy Facebook's model, or even its code, or one of the many other social networks out there. There is absolutely nothing provable about facebook as a good social network.

>> >Anyone can copy Facebook's model, or even its code, or one of the many other social networks out there. There is absolutely nothing provable about facebook as a good social network.

That's a false analogy. You can rewrite it that way if you like, but it doesn't actually show anything.

The OP claimed that "one can provable show it’s a good store of wealth."

That's more akin to saying that facebook will provably continue to be the top social network. You can't prove that, and much like with cryptocurrencies it depends on what else comes along, how facebook continues to perform and whether people lose interest in the whole area of social networking (or cryptocurrency).

BTC has been around a few years. Saying "It has scarcity therefore I can prove it's a good store of wealth" is bollocks, sorry. Lots of things have scarcity.

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