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Ask HN: IF the Bitcoin bubble bursts, where would you invest next?

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Re: Ask HN: IF the Bitcoin bubble bursts, where would you invest next?

#21

Post by hoffs »

Tepix wrote: post #17
0bsidian wrote: post #10

I would buy more Bitcoin. The world needs a censorship-resistant digital vault to store wealth. Bitcoin is basically a very cheap "Swiss bank account as a service" for the world's unbanked. Some use cases I can think off the top of my head: (1) You are from Syria and need to flee war and escape into Europe – however bank transfers into Europe are almost impossible if you are a common Syrian. Bitcoin allows you to tak…

What if there's a reason why its bubble bursts? Perhaps a single party manages to have >51% hash power for a long time. Or Bitcoin exchanges get outlawed in several important countries. Or fees keep rising to $50 or higher per transaction. These developments could make Bitcoin (mostly) unusable and thus worthless. Would you still buy more?

Sure I would (cue the ending of The Big Short)

Re: Ask HN: IF the Bitcoin bubble bursts, where would you invest next?

#24

Post by johnwheeler »

creatornator wrote: post #20
raphaelj wrote: post #16

Bitcoin is just pure speculation at this point. Like gold, Bitcoin's value comes from the fact that more and more people are interested in buying it. Unlike stocks, it does not generate real money through dividends. For every person that got rich with Bitcoin, some other unlucky guy will lose the very same amount of money. When the bubble will burst, it will be zero sum game. Index-based ETFs should be the way to go…

I'm not sure if this is true--in Wall Street, too, there is a seller for every buyer. Every time someone gets a killer deal on some stock, someone else got equally ripped off. As far as I can tell, the distinction between BTC and stocks is trivial--the price of both is driven by supply and demand.

The accounting isn’t zero sum with stocks in that capital is supposed to beget more capital through value creation. That’s the intrinsic value of company shares. So, while there might be a winner and a loser, the world still ends up with more ‘wealth’.

Re: Ask HN: IF the Bitcoin bubble bursts, where would you invest next?

#26

Post by reefoctopus »

shepardrtc wrote: post #19

Ripple. Its more stable and is being adopted by financial institutions (AMEX being one of the biggest so far). I honestly think it'll be the first widely used crypto. Its a little different from Bitcoin, but I think it'll do well in the long run.

Isn't ripple centralized?

Re: Ask HN: IF the Bitcoin bubble bursts, where would you invest next?

#27

Post by AznHisoka »

johnwheeler wrote: post #24
creatornator wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure if this is true--in Wall Street, too, there is a seller for every buyer. Every time someone gets a killer deal on some stock, someone else got equally ripped off. As far as I can tell, the distinction between BTC and stocks is trivial--the price of both is driven by supply and demand.

The accounting isn’t zero sum with stocks in that capital is supposed to beget more capital through value creation. That’s the intrinsic value of company shares. So, while there might be a winner and a loser, the world still ends up with more ‘wealth’.

the IPO is supposed to work this way.

After the IPO, all bets are off. It's just traders, machines, and ego's trading exchanging among each other.

Once upon a time, having a share of a company always meant you were getting a share of their revenue (dividends). Now, it's primarily hoping there's a bigger fool. Which 99% of the time there is because a lot of us put money into the stock market without consciously investing (ie. 401ks)

Re: Ask HN: IF the Bitcoin bubble bursts, where would you invest next?

#29

Post by neuralzen »

Tepix wrote: post #17
0bsidian wrote: post #10

I would buy more Bitcoin. The world needs a censorship-resistant digital vault to store wealth. Bitcoin is basically a very cheap "Swiss bank account as a service" for the world's unbanked. Some use cases I can think off the top of my head: (1) You are from Syria and need to flee war and escape into Europe – however bank transfers into Europe are almost impossible if you are a common Syrian. Bitcoin allows you to tak…

What if there's a reason why its bubble bursts? Perhaps a single party manages to have >51% hash power for a long time. Or Bitcoin exchanges get outlawed in several important countries. Or fees keep rising to $50 or higher per transaction. These developments could make Bitcoin (mostly) unusable and thus worthless. Would you still buy more?

Since BTC is paired with the blooming crypto markets and platforms of services they provide, it would be easier to blow out a spark in a gently accelerating hurricane of gasoline fumes and powdered creamer. It's not a bubble, it is the pin pricking the paradigm.

Re: Ask HN: IF the Bitcoin bubble bursts, where would you invest next?

#30

Post by jwilliams »

0bsidian wrote: post #10

I would buy more Bitcoin. The world needs a censorship-resistant digital vault to store wealth. Bitcoin is basically a very cheap "Swiss bank account as a service" for the world's unbanked. Some use cases I can think off the top of my head: (1) You are from Syria and need to flee war and escape into Europe – however bank transfers into Europe are almost impossible if you are a common Syrian. Bitcoin allows you to tak…

It doesn't need to be Bitcoin (BTC) that takes this mantle.

In the case of a correction your cases 1 and 2 could end up very poorly off indeed.

BTC as a store of value has some brittle pieces. I'm not as confident in the current direction.

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