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The beginning of the end for copper wire

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41–50 of 193 posts

Re: The beginning of the end for copper wire

#41
post #3

The article brings up DSL, but I thought DSL was a short haul technology (you have to be pretty close to a branch office or something)? Would it really affect rural customers anyway? I'm also curious if the newer faster fiber technologies are sort of "subsidizing" the carrier's copper business.

They put in cabinets/huts and run it from there.

[deleted]

Re: The beginning of the end for copper wire

#42
post #32

Highly relevant quote: At one time, 80% of AT&T's capital value was the copper in the local loops. AT&T was then, in effect, the world's largest copper mine. Fortunately, this fact was not widely known in the investment community. Had it been known, some corporate raider might have bought AT&T, terminated all telephone service in the United States, ripped out all the wire, and sole the wire to a copper refiner to get…

It is likely that someone did realize this, did the math on the labor costs to pull all the wire up across the country, and realized it wouldn't actually be profitable. There are guys that track individual ships across the ocean to decide what/when to trade, I doubt everyone missed the value of ATT's physical assets.

I don't think that Tanenbaum was being completely serious. The point is to put the value of that copper (and the cost of replacing it in the event that it is damaged) into perspective.

Re: The beginning of the end for copper wire

#43

Pardon the possibly ignorant question, but what do the telecom companies have to gain by destroying their own infrastructure? I feel like I'm missing something about the US telecom market here. Aren't these companies making a profit on this infrastructure? Are they selling more profitable services and they want users to switch over? Are the maintenance fees that high?

Much of this infrastructure is in more rural areas, which were never profitable. All that copper was strung up in an environment where high long-distance charges were used to subsidize service in rural areas.

Wireline is costly (and copper is more costly than fiber on an on-going basis). Your business is sitting in the ground depreciating and requires expensive unionized workers to make repairs every time there is a storm, etc. Verizon basically makes no profit on its wireline division despite $31 billion in revenue: https://www.verizon.com/about/sites/default/files/annual_rep... (page 22). At this point, POTS service is probably losing money even in urban and suburban areas. (You need to maintain the copper in an entire neighborhood even if only a few people subscribe to copper phone service.)

Re: The beginning of the end for copper wire

#44

Its silly to think that copper itself is going away simply because the phone system won't be using much of it anymore, almost all electricity from AC to DC wires run over copper and various alloys.

> ...almost all electricity from AC to DC wires run over copper and various alloys.

Aren't most OPLs aluminium these days?

Re: The beginning of the end for copper wire

#45

Its silly to think that copper itself is going away simply because the phone system won't be using much of it anymore, almost all electricity from AC to DC wires run over copper and various alloys.

Yea, copper and it's alloys are relative cheap. Aluminum wire did not work out for residential/commercial wiring.

It's going to be here for awhile.

Re: The beginning of the end for copper wire

#46

Highly relevant quote: At one time, 80% of AT&T's capital value was the copper in the local loops. AT&T was then, in effect, the world's largest copper mine. Fortunately, this fact was not widely known in the investment community. Had it been known, some corporate raider might have bought AT&T, terminated all telephone service in the United States, ripped out all the wire, and sole the wire to a copper refiner to get…

[deleted]

Re: The beginning of the end for copper wire

#47
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not destroying the infrastructure, it’s abandoning it. The article states that prior to this ruling they’re required to maintain or replace with comparable functionality for existing copper customers. This ruling let’s them abandon them altogether from what I gathered.

Ok, but there are still paying customers on the end of that infrastructure. Are they not profitable enough?

No, not past a certain point of diminishing returns.

Re: The beginning of the end for copper wire

#48

Its silly to think that copper itself is going away simply because the phone system won't be using much of it anymore, almost all electricity from AC to DC wires run over copper and various alloys.

By AC to DC wires, are you referring to your typical laptop power cord? IE, copper from the wall to the transformer/DC converter, then copper to the power supply of the laptop?

I remember having an labouring job installing power supply cable underground. It was all aluminium, and you rolled it off a giant spool because you could barely bend it.

Re: The beginning of the end for copper wire

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From Wikipedia: "...for local loops shorter than 500 m"

It's doable in many cities. A large part of the infrastructure you need to replace when upgrading is inside buildings. With a 500m radius, you can avoid rewiring buildings and have loops terminate in the street.

Depends on how old the copper is, though. If it needs to be replaced, you might as well run metro ethernet or FTTH.

Re: The beginning of the end for copper wire

#50
post #13

Pardon the possibly ignorant question, but what do the telecom companies have to gain by destroying their own infrastructure? I feel like I'm missing something about the US telecom market here. Aren't these companies making a profit on this infrastructure? Are they selling more profitable services and they want users to switch over? Are the maintenance fees that high?

It’s not destroying the infrastructure, it’s abandoning it. The article states that prior to this ruling they’re required to maintain or replace with comparable functionality for existing copper customers. This ruling let’s them abandon them altogether from what I gathered.

I would guess mining the copper would be worth it, unless this causes a huge price drop (and maybe not even then. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_theft: ”Some have argued that the "genie is out of the bottle" now and drops in commodity prices will not result in corresponding drops in thefts. In fact, it is possible that thefts may actually increase to compensate for the loss in value.[citation needed]”
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