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The beginning of the end for copper wire

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Re: The beginning of the end for copper wire

#31

Post by alexandros »

cperciva wrote: post #25

Highly relevant quote: At one time, 80% of AT&T's capital value was the copper in the local loops. AT&T was then, in effect, the world's largest copper mine. Fortunately, this fact was not widely known in the investment community. Had it been known, some corporate raider might have bought AT&T, terminated all telephone service in the United States, ripped out all the wire, and sole the wire to a copper refiner to get…

...because organizing a hostile takeover, paying for the contract terminations, ripping out all the copper, cleaning it and gathering it all up in a form that can be delivered to a copper refiner, and finally shuttering the business and tying all loose ends is actually free, and in fact will somehow magically pay you not only the missing 20% of the price you paid, but an additional 20-60% you need to justify your trouble.

Re: The beginning of the end for copper wire

#32

Post by olympus »

cperciva wrote: post #25

Highly relevant quote: At one time, 80% of AT&T's capital value was the copper in the local loops. AT&T was then, in effect, the world's largest copper mine. Fortunately, this fact was not widely known in the investment community. Had it been known, some corporate raider might have bought AT&T, terminated all telephone service in the United States, ripped out all the wire, and sole the wire to a copper refiner to get…

It is likely that someone did realize this, did the math on the labor costs to pull all the wire up across the country, and realized it wouldn't actually be profitable. There are guys that track individual ships across the ocean to decide what/when to trade, I doubt everyone missed the value of ATT's physical assets.

Re: The beginning of the end for copper wire

#33

Post by droopybuns »

maltalex wrote: post #11

Pardon the possibly ignorant question, but what do the telecom companies have to gain by destroying their own infrastructure? I feel like I'm missing something about the US telecom market here. Aren't these companies making a profit on this infrastructure? Are they selling more profitable services and they want users to switch over? Are the maintenance fees that high?

When you hear telco execs talk about “the copper plant,” they are referring to all of the underground copper. This wire is laid out in sheathed bundles of excess pairs that can be used to replace a pair that has a short. When they eventually run out of pairs, the only solution is to dig trenches and replace bundles.

It is filthy, expensive work for a feature that no longer generates the revenue that funded the deployment of the national telco network.

The wires will die. It is going to require a different model than those that are on the table to maintain this type of transport. If we hadn’t wasted the trillions of dollars on the last 16 years of war, Maybe we could have afforded a national deployment of fiber.

Re: The beginning of the end for copper wire

#35

Post by mjevans »

knolan wrote: post #9

Copper can still play a role. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/G.fast

I consider that 'the option' for when a building owner refuses to re-wire with something that can be serviced by metro-Ethernet.

Ethernet is, of course, ~90-100 meters (not 500) but most MDUs need to have utility closets/areas within 100 meters for other reasons anyway; so you often there can either be copper or fiber back-haul links past that first switch.

The major pain point is probably neighborhoods where the exposure to outside conditions means increased likelihood of some idiot trenching incorrectly and/or disasters where high voltage might come across the line (making fiber to at least the side of the building preferable for safety reasons).

Re: The beginning of the end for copper wire

#36

Post by matwood »

alexandros wrote: post #31
cperciva wrote: post #25

Highly relevant quote: At one time, 80% of AT&T's capital value was the copper in the local loops. AT&T was then, in effect, the world's largest copper mine. Fortunately, this fact was not widely known in the investment community. Had it been known, some corporate raider might have bought AT&T, terminated all telephone service in the United States, ripped out all the wire, and sole the wire to a copper refiner to get…

...because organizing a hostile takeover, paying for the contract terminations, ripping out all the copper, cleaning it and gathering it all up in a form that can be delivered to a copper refiner, and finally shuttering the business and tying all loose ends is actually free, and in fact will somehow magically pay you not only the missing 20% of the price you paid, but an additional 20-60% you need to justify your tro…

Exactly. Plus getting past the government when you announce you're canceling phone service for the entire country.

Re: The beginning of the end for copper wire

#37

Post by microcolonel »

droopybuns wrote: post #33
maltalex wrote: post #11

Pardon the possibly ignorant question, but what do the telecom companies have to gain by destroying their own infrastructure? I feel like I'm missing something about the US telecom market here. Aren't these companies making a profit on this infrastructure? Are they selling more profitable services and they want users to switch over? Are the maintenance fees that high?

When you hear telco execs talk about “the copper plant,” they are referring to all of the underground copper. This wire is laid out in sheathed bundles of excess pairs that can be used to replace a pair that has a short. When they eventually run out of pairs, the only solution is to dig trenches and replace bundles. It is filthy, expensive work for a feature that no longer generates the revenue that funded the deploy…

> If we hadn’t wasted the trillions of dollars on the last 16 years of war

War is actually one of the cheaper parts of the budget.

Re: The beginning of the end for copper wire

#38

Post by justin66 »

JackFr wrote: post #10

I'm in an apartment building in NYC. While a new service elevator was being installed, the elevator guys cut my phone line 3 times, and 3 times Verizon came out to fix it, at no cost to me. However after the third time, the building management refused to allow copper wire service to continue in the building. It turns out I was 1 of only 2 apartments which hadn't already moved to a cable/internet/phone package from on…

> the elevator guys cut my phone line 3 times

I would be a little concerned about the safety of that elevator.

Re: The beginning of the end for copper wire

#40

Post by rmason »

distances wrote: post #29
rmason wrote: post #2

This really hits home for me. I'm using a DSL modem and still have landline phone that is far more reliable for me than my cell phone.

How does unreliability show itself with a cell phone? My data isn't always flowing perfectly, but can't remember problems with calls since 2000 or so.

Two reasons basically:

1. I needed a separate box at home tied to my wifi to even get a signal on my phone. Thankfully after switching to Google Fi and a Pixel phone I no longer need the box.

2. If I'm making a business call and making the sale depends on a clear connection that will not drop the landline phone still wins out.

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