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Why Japan Is Doomed

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Re: Why Japan Is Doomed

#81

Post by gaius »

Ardit20 wrote: post #80
gaius wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US can inflate ultimately because the USD is what oil and other major commodities is traded in. Anyone who needs to convert their currency into another to trade doesn't have that luxury. Not even the CHF, the EUR or the GBP.

What they can't just start trading in Euro? Do they have some sort of contract or is there some sort of law which says you can trade oil only in dollars? I think if the dollar became a fonny currency people would switch quickly. It would for example not make any sense for a British man to trade in dollars if he gets say one pence for every dollar. Especially if by the next day it is worth 0.5 pence.

Well there is a conspiracy theory that Iraq was invaded because it was on the verge of switching to EUR, and if it had OPEC would have followed and the dollar would have collapsed, taking the US economy with it.

Re: Why Japan Is Doomed

#82

Post by Groxx »

patio11 wrote: post #46
w1ntermute wrote: post #7

Here, I'll turn on the Patio11 signal: 00000 0000000 000P11000 0000000 00000

I love you guys, but a) it is 4:50 in the morning and I am scarcely coherent and b) there are several dozen HNers in Japan.

Do they have signals? Do their signals work so effectively (4:50? Yoiks)?

I think we need a signal-tweet-feed, so someone can set up an alarm system for when their signal is activated. For great justice!

Re: Why Japan Is Doomed

#83

Post by bpyne »

masklinn wrote: post #76
bpyne wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This hopelessness shows up in the US as well. It's the people who fall off the unemployment stats and have given up looking for work. Another group of people stay on government assistance because they realize that paying for daycare, rent, etc. would add up to more than they make. So, they live off government assistance as long as possible.

> Another group of people stay on government assistance because they realize that paying for daycare, rent, etc. would add up to more than they make. FWIW I've seen that happen in France: the social safety net tends to be pretty strong, but the transition from that safety net to its absence is anything but smooth. I'd go as far as to say it's pretty abrupt. A decade or so ago, my parents started employing a domestic…

All systems have their problems. Thanks for sharing your experience. Still, I get the feeling I'd rather be poor in France than poor in the US.

Some states in the US recognize the transition from public assistance as an issue. My wife used to work for an organization that was consulted by several states. With cutbacks in federal funding and a population resistant to tax increases, states do little more than study the problem.

Re: Why Japan Is Doomed

#84

Post by masklinn »

bpyne wrote: post #83
masklinn wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Another group of people stay on government assistance because they realize that paying for daycare, rent, etc. would add up to more than they make. FWIW I've seen that happen in France: the social safety net tends to be pretty strong, but the transition from that safety net to its absence is anything but smooth. I'd go as far as to say it's pretty abrupt. A decade or so ago, my parents started employing a domestic…

All systems have their problems. Thanks for sharing your experience. Still, I get the feeling I'd rather be poor in France than poor in the US. Some states in the US recognize the transition from public assistance as an issue. My wife used to work for an organization that was consulted by several states. With cutbacks in federal funding and a population resistant to tax increases, states do little more than study the…

> I get the feeling I'd rather be poor in France than poor in the US.

Oh so would I, definitely, just saying that the transition back into "productive member of society" often isn't setup/incentivized correctly, and can lead to people not being able to make the transition. And that it would often be a better idea to fix that rather than decide people who stay on aid are lazy fuckers.

Re: Why Japan Is Doomed

#85

Post by ajuc »

Ardit20 wrote: post #71
nathanb wrote: post #9

What does it look like when a nation becomes insolvient? How does it affect its citizens? Its public services?

I think Russia went bankrupt in the 90s when communism collapsed. So The IMF forced them to sell of their assets, like gas companies, oil, energy, whatever else. People bought them really cheap and are now billionaires, or as the media is free to call them Russian oligarchs. It has taken two decades for Russia once again to at least try and act like a super power in the world stage. As for normal people, well I would…

In Poland before the communism fall there were big inflation - it made all savings worth nothing in a course of a few months (people were saving for kids flats for 10 years, then these savings on bank account were worth 10 times less after a few months - many people still didn't get that money from "flat savings acounts" (ksiazeczka mieszkaniowa) - that money nowadays is less than a few days of work.

But some people had luck - I know family, that bought one family home for credit in 1986, credit was for 30 years. Then, after a few years father went abroad to work a few months for $ (on the farm), then paid the whole credit back for these $.

Of course country had to default eventually, but many people paid their credits that otherways would be paying to this day. So that's one way of profiting from hyperinflation.

All in all it wasn't so bad, people just were using $ or Deutche Marks (it was illegal to own them then, but it was legal to change your $ to polish currency, only change rate was were unjust). So many Polish businessmans started as people illegaly trading $ to zlotys. Crazy times that were, millions laying in the streets.

Re: Why Japan Is Doomed

#86

Post by anamax »

jbooth wrote: post #62
anamax wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But it's also true that Bush took inherited a surplus and doubled the national debt in a "boom" economy The deficit under the last Repub congress was $100B/year and the trend was downwards. That changed when the Dems took congress for Bush's last two years. The current deficit is $100B/month. Note that Congress didn't pass a budget in 2008 - they held back until after Obama became president.

Ok, so based on fiscal-year technicalities and on the GIANT ECONOMIC DISASTER that Bush and supply-side economics presided over, Obama's increased the deficit a lot. True. He still didn't inherit a surplus and double the national debt.

Bush had 9/11.

Bush also did a prescription drug plan that was a financial disaster. However, the Dems wanted something even more expensive so ....

In fact, that's generally true; Repubs overspent, but Dems wanted more. The Repubs weren't fiscally conservative in absolute terms, but they were significantly more so than Dems. Since the alternative to Repubs isn't perfection, but Dems, that's relevant.

As to the financial disaster, it's due to Dems pushing "affordable" housing. The Repub's contribution is that they didn't try very hard to oppose it. (When McCain suggested looking at Fannie and Freddie in 2005/6, he got his teeth kicked in.)

Tax revenues increased under Bush. And fewer paid income taxes. (The poor get a decent return on SS while the rest of us are hosed. The rich don't care because both "contributions" and payouts are capped.)

Re: Why Japan Is Doomed

#87

Post by jbooth »

anamax wrote: post #86
jbooth wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, so based on fiscal-year technicalities and on the GIANT ECONOMIC DISASTER that Bush and supply-side economics presided over, Obama's increased the deficit a lot. True. He still didn't inherit a surplus and double the national debt.

Bush had 9/11. Bush also did a prescription drug plan that was a financial disaster. However, the Dems wanted something even more expensive so .... In fact, that's generally true; Repubs overspent, but Dems wanted more. The Repubs weren't fiscally conservative in absolute terms, but they were significantly more so than Dems. Since the alternative to Repubs isn't perfection, but Dems, that's relevant. As to the financ…

Assertion, assertion, assertion. What was the vote count on that prescription drug plan disaster, again? How many of those same people, institutions and editorial pages are huge deficit hawks now? What happened to "deficits don't matter"?

You opened this thread saying "yeah but if we figure the calendar this way i can put all of the 2008 stuff on Obama". You advertised that you don't give a crap about reasoned conclusions, you're just going to attempt to twist the facts. You said out loud, "I'm doing this". Deficits don't matter in 2003, they're the most important thing ever in 2010. Whatever.

It's your right, freedom of speech and all that. But I'm not going to take you seriously.

Re: Why Japan Is Doomed

#89

Post by anamax »

jbooth wrote: post #87
anamax wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bush had 9/11. Bush also did a prescription drug plan that was a financial disaster. However, the Dems wanted something even more expensive so .... In fact, that's generally true; Repubs overspent, but Dems wanted more. The Repubs weren't fiscally conservative in absolute terms, but they were significantly more so than Dems. Since the alternative to Repubs isn't perfection, but Dems, that's relevant. As to the financ…

Assertion, assertion, assertion. What was the vote count on that prescription drug plan disaster, again? How many of those same people, institutions and editorial pages are huge deficit hawks now? What happened to "deficits don't matter"? You opened this thread saying "yeah but if we figure the calendar this way i can put all of the 2008 stuff on Obama". You advertised that you don't give a crap about reasoned conclu…

> What was the vote count on that prescription drug plan disaster, again?

It was mostly repubs for and mostly dems against on final passage. The vote to substitute the Dem proposal, which was more expensive, it was mostly Dems for and mostly Repubs against.

Yes, the Repubs passed a monstrosity. The Dems tried to pass something worse. It's unclear how these two facts make the Dems look better than the Repubs.

> How many of those same people, institutions and editorial pages are huge deficit hawks now? What happened to "deficits don't matter"?

One might argue that there's a difference between $100B/year and $100B/month. You're claiming that it's wrong to be concerned about $100B/month yet be okay with $100B/year....

More to the point, I'm not claiming that the Repubs were/are correct. I'm saying that they're bad, but better than Dems on this.

> yeah but if we figure the calendar this way i can put all of the 2008 stuff on Obama

It's a fact that the 2008 budget wasn't passed until after Obama took office. Congressional Dems said that Obama had significant input into that budget. Do you really want to argue that they were lying?

> you're just going to attempt to twist the facts.

Some actual examples would be nice.

> You said out loud, "I'm doing this".

Oh really? Where?

Re: Why Japan Is Doomed

#90

Post by artsrc »

codexon wrote: post #68
artsrc wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like a version of this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equity_home_bias_puzzle I don't know why US savers don't invest in Australian dollar accounts either. They pay about 6 times as much as US term deposits. http://www.infochoice.com.au/banking/savings-account/term-de...

I just checked two of those term deposits and they both require Australian residency. Can I get one of those without living in Australia?

In Australia HSBC offers foreign currency bank accounts, but I can't see that on the US site.

I work for a fund manager not a bank. Would an ETF for high yield, first world, countries fixed income products work?

http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/index/FI.htm

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