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How often do superior alternatives fail to catch on?

lemire.me

1–10 of 102 posts

Re: How often do superior alternatives fail to catch on?

#2
Often, because in the calculation of the provider, one factor never appears. Training-time, if a superior tool comes along, making it necessary to retrain to do the same work, its not superior, its inferior until the gain is so big that the productivity loss is visible to the customer.

That is why even with superior software it is necessary to add a "Legacy"-user interface, that allows for a easy switch from old software, while at the same time retraining people to use the new interface. This changes the transition costs.

Re: How often do superior alternatives fail to catch on?

#5
I do think that superior alternatives will catch up eventually if they stay in the game long enough... The problem is that sometimes the window of opportunity can be suppressed for very long periods of time; sometimes several generations... Maybe even several centuries.

Great one-time success can create a protective buffer which allows inferior traits to persist through long periods of time.

Re: How often do superior alternatives fail to catch on?

#6
While i agree with the sentiment that the supposedly superior product isn't actually that superior all the time, the given examples are a bit cherrypicking-ish. For example the BetaMax vs VHS comparison is about image quality, not length (and FWIW BetaMax could record 2 hours, but it is true that VHS thanks to its size could record more than that). Similarly the mammals vs birds comparison feels a bit stretchy - like calling a tomato salad a "fruit salad" because tomato is technically a fruit.

Re: How often do superior alternatives fail to catch on?

#7

I do think that superior alternatives will catch up eventually if they stay in the game long enough... The problem is that sometimes the window of opportunity can be suppressed for very long periods of time; sometimes several generations... Maybe even several centuries. Great one-time success can create a protective buffer which allows inferior traits to persist through long periods of time.

[deleted]

Re: How often do superior alternatives fail to catch on?

#8
When there's a new, far superior way of doing things, it always catches on.

But usually there are several different versions of this new way, with slightly different properties, trade-offs and non-product features (like marketing, support, compatibility, price etc) - which of these wins out is a crap-shoot. That's why some companies, investors and customers back different versions... and the pragmatic ones wait for a market leader to emerge.

Re: How often do superior alternatives fail to catch on?

#9
It's true that there isn't necessarily much difference in typing speed between QWERTY and Dvorak layouts, for trained typists (even the same typist). However, we might say that we're throwing the baby out with the bathwater when we claim that Dvorak is technically not superior because weak studies showed little to no marginal improvement in a few particular metrics.

Modern work is a marathon of text entry, and in light of this I believe that what is technically important about a keyboard in the long run is not speed or even accuracy, but ergonomics. I won't make any general claims, because it seems like it's never been possible to study, but as an anecdote I can offer my own experience. I used to type on QWERTY until I had to stop due to repetitive strain. In the fifteen years since I switched to Dvorak I have never had a single day when I finished work feeling any pain in my hands, whereas this was almost an every-day occurrence with QWERTY. I can type for hours without stopping, without pain. The design of the keyboard makes it pleasurable to type in English. Words roll off the fingers of both hands in relaxing patterns. My hands move very little. It's nice, and I would suggest it as an option to anyone who types or programs a lot and is having trouble with their hands, not because I have any financial or personal stake in it, but because it really helped me and I care about the health of my fellow tech workers. I have seen a lot of people taken down by their hands, and I have also seen many people try some crazy gimmicks.

In the same space, not considering the placement of the letters on the keyboard, there is an even more absurd technical anachronism embedded in almost every single keyboard on the market, including virtual ones on our phones. The keys are positioned not in clean vertical rows, but offset as if they have mechanical arms behind them. This is pure path dependence, and there is no conceivable reason why we are stuck with it thirty years after mechanical typewriters fell out of use except that those who learned on a mechanical typewriter couldn't even imagine to design or test a different positioning of the keys. It's not just the weird zig-zag pattern of the position of the keys that is anachronistic. Why should the backspace and delete keys (which are so essential when we are typing in the flexible medium of digital text) be relegated to the far corner of the keyboard? (TypeMatrix presents an example of a modern reconceptualization of the layout. I'm not affiliated but I do enjoy their products.)

To summarize, I think that this article presents a rather limited (and even ad hominem) attack on the keyboard issue, with acknowledgment but little appreciation of the degree of path dependency in tech development. How can Dvorak be better if the research was flawed? This is not a complete answer.

Of course we are going to end up in suboptimal equilibriums, and together we should appreciate this if we ever want to get out of them.

Re: How often do superior alternatives fail to catch on?

#10
Multiple dimensions.

The common theme why people get confused about "superior" products not winning boils down to ignoring the multiple dimensions of quality. A product's overall "superiority" is a single score that compresses multiple scores of the various attributes of the product. If one is ignorant (or discounts the value) of the other dimensions, he will be perplexed why the supposedly "inferior" solution won.

E.g. I never understood why bicycles didn't beat out cars. Bicycles are obviously superior because:

+ narrow profile can squeeze through tight alleys or even heavily treed forests that cars can reach

+ requires no fossil fuel that emits pollution

+ costs less than 1/100th the price of a car

+ easily repaired by homeowners in the garage because no computers

+ etc, etc

That fixation on those attributes causes the confused person to totally miss the other positive attributes of the car:

+ travel faster than 25 mph with minimum physical exertion

+ typical size car can carry 5 adults which is ~1000 pounds of weight

+ carry entire week's worth of groceries (~10 bags)

+ occupants don't get wet when when it rains

If one doesn't understand the all the multidimensions of qualities and weigh them in an objective manner that's detached from personal preferences, he'll always be confused why "superior" USENET lost to "inferior" Reddit, or why "superior" Lisp lost the popularity contest to "inferior" C++/Java/Python/Go/etc, or why Mac OS 9 lost to Windows NT.

Likewise, there were multidimensional factors to Betamax vs VHS and "picture quality" was only one of them.

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