Tesla’s promises don’t compute with current physics and economics of batteries

Although it is very good to be skeptical, it makes the article less valuable than it could have been. 'Musk claimed X and people we talked to said they don't know how it's possible.' I am not saying that the people they consulted didn't know how, but using just that for the entire article was unnecessary. They also claim battery density is increasing by Y% and maybe Tesla is banking on that. Well those density increases because someone somewhere is finding ways to do it. It's not happening by some magic. Maybe Tesla found some ways to improve it? Why do they have to rely on someone else?

Maybe I am being too critical of the article and I understand that author too can do very little but speculate. But maybe consult variety of people rather than just 'I don't know how so it must not be possible' people.

Edit: is there a way for tesla to purchase electricity for solar city customers or something and direct it to charging stations? Or is that now how it all works?

Re: Tesla’s promises don’t compute with current physics and economics of batteries

#6

Post by melling » Sat, Nov 25, 2017, 3:03 AM UTC

joshuamcneese wrote: post #2

The “laws of batteries”?

“Every time the global supply of batteries doubled, prices drop 19%”

“Every year the energy density of batteries increases by about 7.5%”

So, in 10 years electric cars will double their range, which should be more than enough for most people.

Re: Tesla’s promises don’t compute with current physics and economics of batteries

#7

Post by shobith » Sat, Nov 25, 2017, 3:04 AM UTC

itchyjunk wrote: post #5

Although it is very good to be skeptical, it makes the article less valuable than it could have been. 'Musk claimed X and people we talked to said they don't know how it's possible.' I am not saying that the people they consulted didn't know how, but using just that for the entire article was unnecessary. They also claim battery density is increasing by Y% and maybe Tesla is banking on that. Well those density increa…

They could have easily added a few more people speaking while they were at it: https://asia.nikkei.com/Tech-Science/Tech/New-battery-techno...

Re: Tesla’s promises don’t compute with current physics and economics of batteries

#8

Post by mcguire » Sat, Nov 25, 2017, 3:05 AM UTC

"Tesla offers free electricity to most of its Model S and Model X customers while paying almost $1 per kilowatt hour to produce it, Morsy said. That amounts to a subsidy of as much as $1,000 per car in 2017."

I realize that most people believe that Tesla and Uber will be able to continue subsidising their operations indefinitely, but it makes me very nervous.

Re: Tesla’s promises don’t compute with current physics and economics of batteries

#9

Post by ams6110 » Sat, Nov 25, 2017, 3:10 AM UTC

If this were any other company making such unsubstantiated claims that didn't have any basis in the reality of the underlying technology, they'd be getting roasted here.

Re: Tesla’s promises don’t compute with current physics and economics of batteries

#10

Post by Hypx » Sat, Nov 25, 2017, 3:14 AM UTC

melling wrote: post #6

joshuamcneese wrote: post #2

The “laws of batteries”?

“Every time the global supply of batteries doubled, prices drop 19%” “Every year the energy density of batteries increases by about 7.5%” So, in 10 years electric cars will double their range, which should be more than enough for most people.

We should be careful with apply Moore's Law style of thinking when it comes to battery innovation. These things can and will hit hard limits at some point. Real progress can be much slower and much less predictable than in the semiconductor industry.